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Gian Stanton - Anyone else concerned?

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Re: Gian Stanton - Anyone else concerned?

Postby rjforlife » Wed Apr 10, 2013 10:21 pm

I think if you guys watch some of his ABs, you'll notice he's pressing a bit and swinging at a lot of first pitches. I'm worried that he is trying to do too much because he knows he's the only guy that can drive in runs. Regardless, he should settle in a bit and be more patient at the plate, and hit some HR, but those expecting 35 HR and 100 RBI, I think will be disappointed.
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Re: Gian Stanton - Anyone else concerned?

Postby umphrey » Wed Apr 10, 2013 10:38 pm

I am expecting a down year. More like 30 HRs and a .260 average. I just don't think he's all in mentally after the trade and he's getting pitched around like crazy.
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Re: Gian Stanton - Anyone else concerned?

Postby kab21 » Wed Apr 10, 2013 11:36 pm

Ender wrote:Even with Reyes and Ramirez that lineup was awful last year. I don't expect the R/RBI to drop all that much from last year.


It's a special kind of awful this year. Ruggiano is the only other player with a projection of .700+ OPS.

Last year might have been bad but several of those players won't come close to repeating their season (Ruggiano, Brantley, Solano) and they also lost Reyes, Hanley and Infante. Each of those replacements are probably .100 OPS worse.
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Re: Gian Stanton - Anyone else concerned?

Postby OBPlover » Thu Apr 11, 2013 3:08 am

kab21 wrote:
Ender wrote:Even with Reyes and Ramirez that lineup was awful last year. I don't expect the R/RBI to drop all that much from last year.


It's a special kind of awful this year. Ruggiano is the only other player with a projection of .700+ OPS.

Last year might have been bad but several of those players won't come close to repeating their season (Ruggiano, Brantley, Solano) and they also lost Reyes, Hanley and Infante. Each of those replacements are probably .100 OPS worse.


But it's far more important, what the OBP is for their N#1 and N#2 hitters will be...and Pierre and Solano (I'm hoping their manager has the good sense to use Solano) will be in the .340-.350 range. Not great, but good enough that Stanton can easily hit 100+ RBIs, provided he can hit 35+ HR's.

The guy he most closely resembles..in terms of fantasy value is probably Jose Bautista. This year they had similar ADP's. Well, people might not remember but in those 2 huge years of 2010+2011, the Jays lineup was just absolutely friggin crap. I believe the leadoff spot had a sub .300 OBP, if IIRC. It was crap other than Bautista. He carried that club to respectability with a terrible lineup and no real protection (EE didn't really emerge until 2012).
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Re: Gian Stanton - Anyone else concerned?

Postby kab21 » Thu Apr 11, 2013 11:37 am

If you check out more of Solano's career than just his 300 AB's last year you will likely change your projection for him. Just about every projection at fangraphs have him barely breaking .300 OBP.

You are also forgetting the rest of the important people in the lineup. Nobody is going to give Stanton any pitches to hit if he has the likes of Polanco hitting behind him.
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Re: Gian Stanton - Anyone else concerned?

Postby RedHopeful » Thu Apr 11, 2013 11:39 am

Please get traded to the Mets! :-B
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Re: Gian Stanton - Anyone else concerned?

Postby Skin Blues » Thu Apr 11, 2013 11:48 am

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Last edited by Skin Blues on Thu Apr 11, 2013 12:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Gian Stanton - Anyone else concerned?

Postby Skin Blues » Thu Apr 11, 2013 11:59 am

I know you love OBP but we're not interested in the past, we're interested in the future OBP of guys like Solano and Pierre. Solano had a .357 BABIP last season while in the minors he showed no such skill. And a career .314 OBP in the minors speaks for itself, if that's the only stat you're interested in. By all reasonable projection systems Donovan Solano will have a terrible year at the plate. As will Polanco, Dobbs, Hech, Pierre... well, everybody except Logan Morrison and Justin Ruggiano. Lomo is on the 60 day DL and Ruggiano is being platooned.

Surprisingly, it'd probably help a lot if Stanton was traded to the Mets. Or anywhere else. But he can still put up a ton of value in a fantasy wasteland.

OBPlover wrote:The guy he most closely resembles..in terms of fantasy value is probably Jose Bautista. This year they had similar ADP's. Well, people might not remember but in those 2 huge years of 2010+2011, the Jays lineup was just absolutely friggin crap. I believe the leadoff spot had a sub .300 OBP, if IIRC. It was crap other than Bautista. He carried that club to respectability with a terrible lineup and no real protection (EE didn't really emerge until 2012).

In 2010 and 2011 the Jays had the 9th best offense in the majors. It's fair to say the Marlins will be well below that. The lineup is almost entirely bereft of major league caliber hitters. They will have to fight tooth and nail to outscore the Astros.
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Re: Gian Stanton - Anyone else concerned?

Postby MashinSpuds » Thu Apr 11, 2013 12:01 pm

Skin Blues wrote:They will have to fight tooth and nail to outscore the Astros.

If the Astros and Marlins face each other in a game, commentators will have a hard time determining if the low score is attributed to a pair of bereft offenses or a "pitcher's duel". ;-)
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Re: Gian Stanton - Anyone else concerned?

Postby Ender » Thu Apr 11, 2013 12:11 pm

The Marlins scored 3.76 R/G last year and the Astros scored 3.60 as the bottom two teams in baseball. The Cubs scored 3.78 R/G. If the Marlins dip to even 3.50 R/G it just isn't going to be a huge drop for just one player. That would be 30ish runs for the entire team and maybe like 8-10 fewer for Stanton. If he plays a few more games he makes up those stats. I expect about the same line he had last year in maybe a few more AB. I think he is just a slow starter, I mean he looked bad in the WBC too.

The difference in opinion might just be based on expectations though. I own him in 1 league which was an auction and he went for lower than I expected. In a snake draft I wouldn't be looking at him until the early 2nd round. I know some others had him as a top 10 guy.
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