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Weekend Cheering / Venting Sun match ups pg 15

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Re: Weekend Cheering / Venting Sun match ups pg 15

Postby kab21 » Sun Apr 07, 2013 10:35 pm

CBMGreatOne wrote:
93 Rs, 17 HRs, 70 RBIs, 16 SBs, .300

That would be his numbers last year if you prorated them over 600 ABs instead of 454. That would be knocking on the door of top 20. I'm sticking to it. I've been bolder and been right in the past. It's also his age 27 season, for those who believe in that sort of thing.


He better bump the HR/SB numbers up a little because that avg is going to drop due to a .390 BAPIP last year. Most of the projections at fangraphs have him in the .270's.
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Re: Weekend Cheering / Venting Sun match ups pg 15

Postby CBMGreatOne » Sun Apr 07, 2013 10:45 pm

kab21 wrote:
CBMGreatOne wrote:
93 Rs, 17 HRs, 70 RBIs, 16 SBs, .300

That would be his numbers last year if you prorated them over 600 ABs instead of 454. That would be knocking on the door of top 20. I'm sticking to it. I've been bolder and been right in the past. It's also his age 27 season, for those who believe in that sort of thing.


He better bump the HR/SB numbers up a little because that avg is going to drop due to a .390 BAPIP last year. Most of the projections at fangraphs have him in the .270's.


I don't see how he doesn't hit 20 HRs, and he's stolen 27 bags in a season before. There's a lot of gut in this call, but I think he can be top 20 even if he is in the 270s.
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Re: Weekend Cheering / Venting Sun match ups pg 15

Postby Ender » Sun Apr 07, 2013 11:20 pm

CBMGreatOne wrote:
Ender wrote:
CBMGreatOne wrote:Dexter Fowler again! I'll make the early call that he's a top 20 OF this year. I know it's too soon, I'm going for bold.


Extremely difficult for a leadoff hitter to put up top 20 OF stats unless they are a 50 SB guy. Remember he had a huge hot streak last year and by the end of the year was really meh. This isn't the first time we have seen this.

This is the Darvish I expect to see a lot of this year against teams with real offenses that will lay off of pitches and make him work deep into counts.


93 Rs, 17 HRs, 70 RBIs, 16 SBs, .300

That would be his numbers last year if you prorated them over 600 ABs instead of 454. That would be knocking on the door of top 20. I'm sticking to it. I've been bolder and been right in the past. It's also his age 27 season, for those who believe in that sort of thing.


Knocking at the door but not actually top 20. Alex Gordon isn't a top 20 OF, Shin Soo-Choo isn't a top 20 OF, Austin Jackson isn't a top 20 OF. These are the comparable you have for Fowler for the power/speed leadoff types. When you lead off you just kill so much of your value compared to a 3 or 4 hitter because of the R/RBI.

As for Fowler himself he had 11 HR last year at the all star break, ended up hitting 13. He hasn't had more than 13 SB in the past 3 years. He played in 143 games last year so suggesting this was just a partial season at work is probably going too far. His actual peripherals didn't improve from 2011 to 2012 so it isn't like he took a step up last year and the only step up in 2013 so far is an obviously non sustainable .409 ISO.
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Re: Weekend Cheering / Venting Sun match ups pg 15

Postby kab21 » Sun Apr 07, 2013 11:44 pm

CBMGreatOne wrote:
I don't see how he doesn't hit 20 HRs, and he's stolen 27 bags in a season before. There's a lot of gut in this call, but I think he can be top 20 even if he is in the 270s.


The 27 SB's were 4 years ago and his attempts have gone down since then due to poor success rates.

He's also hit 31 HR's in over 2100 PA's so I'm not sure how you can justify >20 other than just using your gut. At the end of the I see a .270, 100, 12-14HR, 60 RBI, 15 SB guy. And I'm actually not that convinced that he's even a .270 hitter since that requires a .350ish BAPIP.
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Re: Weekend Cheering / Venting Sun match ups pg 15

Postby AussieDodger » Mon Apr 08, 2013 12:55 am

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Re: Weekend Cheering / Venting Sun match ups pg 15

Postby kab21 » Mon Apr 08, 2013 1:04 am

We play 4 matchups every week in my 24 tm H2H pts league. I got passed in one matchup on Sunday and went 3-1 but I have the makings of a playoff team. ;-D Sale, Harvey and the newly acquired Jose Fernandez set this team up really nicely for next season. B-) :-L

provided Sale doesn't blow out his elbow. :-o
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Re: Weekend Cheering / Venting Sun match ups pg 15

Postby thatguy27 » Mon Apr 08, 2013 1:10 am

Anyone know why Tulo didn't play today?
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Re: Weekend Cheering / Venting Sun match ups pg 15

Postby Skin Blues » Mon Apr 08, 2013 1:28 am

He had the day off. So did Rutledge, Cuddyer and Helton. It was only the Padres, after all.
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