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Houston Streaming Thoughts

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Houston Streaming Thoughts

Postby AHF » Thu Apr 04, 2013 11:26 am

Just curious about how low you go for streaming options against the Astros (and perhaps Marlins - although the prospect of a hot Stanton is still scary).

I am in a 10 team mixed league so there is real depth on the waiver wire with guys like Alexi Ogando (who I drafted, dropped, and then picked back up with no competition for him), Jeremy Helickson, Paul Maholm, Wandy Rodriguez, Alex Cobb, Jaime Garcia, Jason Hammel, etc.

I have guys like Ogando, Kurado and Haren in spots 4-6 in my rotation and am considering dropping one of them to grab closer prospects like Jim Henderson (middle tier closers go for $20 or so at auction with the top middle relievers all owned and I have a very questionable profile of closers with Betancourt, Perez, Parnell and Veras) or to stream against the Astros.

I am thinking that pitchers against the Astros will put up better numbers than a lot of starters but the question is how low to go. Guys like Straily, Colon, Maurer?
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Re: Houston Streaming Thoughts

Postby Izenhart » Thu Apr 04, 2013 11:27 am

AHF wrote:Just curious about how low you go for streaming options against the Astros (and perhaps Marlins - although the prospect of a hot Stanton is still scary).

I am in a 10 team mixed league so there is real depth on the waiver wire with guys like Alexi Ogando (who I drafted, dropped, and then picked back up with no competition for him), Jeremy Helickson, Paul Maholm, Wandy Rodriguez, Alex Cobb, Jaime Garcia, Jason Hammel, etc.

I have guys like Ogando, Kurado and Haren in spots 4-6 in my rotation and am considering dropping one of them to grab closer prospects like Jim Henderson (middle tier closers go for $20 or so at auction with the top middle relievers all owned and I have a very questionable profile of closers with Betancourt, Perez, Parnell and Veras) or to stream against the Astros.

I am thinking that pitchers against the Astros will put up better numbers than a lot of starters but the question is how low to go. Guys like Straily, Colon, Maurer?


I'd go as low as single A pitchers.
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Re: Houston Streaming Thoughts

Postby bigh0rt » Thu Apr 04, 2013 11:46 am

Given how shallow your league is, you'd probably be better off just grabbing better pitchers in favorable starts, even if they aren't as favorable as facing Houston. Some of the talent you listed there will be must starts against the Astros and Padres and Marlins of the world, and I'd prefer them over some of the other lighter hitting teams in the league than I would a scrub against the Astros. That being said, I'm pretty sure I'm gonna pick up Straily for his start vs them tomorrow...
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Re: Houston Streaming Thoughts

Postby RedHopeful » Thu Apr 04, 2013 1:36 pm

Not to burst anyone's bubble, but didn't Matt Harrison give up 6 hits, 3 BB and 5 ER a few days ago? Yeah HOU sucks, but not every pitcher is gonna walk all over them (which is the vibe I'm getting from some).
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Re: Houston Streaming Thoughts

Postby Skin Blues » Thu Apr 04, 2013 1:51 pm

ER are way more random than K/BB/HR. Harrison got 9 Ks in 5.2 IP with 3 BBs and no HRs. The earned runs are a result of high average on balls in play, and sequencing of events, both things that are more luck than skill. In other words... the .462 BABIP and 33.3 LOB% that Harrison succumbed to are flukes. The Astros are just as horrible as we all knew they'd be.
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Re: Houston Streaming Thoughts

Postby Izenhart » Thu Apr 04, 2013 1:57 pm

Skin Blues wrote:ER are way more random than K/BB/HR. Harrison got 9 Ks in 5.2 IP with 3 BBs and no HRs. The earned runs are a result of high average on balls in play, and sequencing of events, both things that are more luck than skill. In other words... the .462 BABIP and 33.3 LOB% that Harrison succumbed to are flukes. The Astros are just as horrible as we all knew they'd be.


Right, to further the point Harrison got NINE K's in less than 6 IP. Last year his K high was SEVEN, which he did twice while pitching 7 and 8 full innings. The Astros could do better if they closed their eyes when they swung. Only Altuve is a MLB hitter on that team.
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Re: Houston Streaming Thoughts

Postby RedHopeful » Thu Apr 04, 2013 3:28 pm

Izenhart wrote:
Skin Blues wrote:ER are way more random than K/BB/HR. Harrison got 9 Ks in 5.2 IP with 3 BBs and no HRs. The earned runs are a result of high average on balls in play, and sequencing of events, both things that are more luck than skill. In other words... the .462 BABIP and 33.3 LOB% that Harrison succumbed to are flukes. The Astros are just as horrible as we all knew they'd be.


Right, to further the point Harrison got NINE K's in less than 6 IP. Last year his K high was SEVEN, which he did twice while pitching 7 and 8 full innings. The Astros could do better if they closed their eyes when they swung. Only Altuve is a MLB hitter on that team.

Meh, rarely are things ever so linear, let alone from a 3 game sample. Case in point, the Reds have set club records against the Angels for 1) most K's in an inter-league series and 2) most K's for the first 3 games to start a season. Should/are people jumping to finite conclusions about them?

Remember, I'm not saying HOU is even aware how to hold a bat, but to suppose they'll be so awful that one should stream any and every pitcher against them all season, is a bit much. I'm willing to wager that although the Astro's finish with the most K's, they won't be last in batting average and certainly not in the power department.
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Re: Houston Streaming Thoughts

Postby AHF » Thu Apr 04, 2013 4:24 pm

RedHopeful wrote:to suppose they'll be so awful that one should stream any and every pitcher against them all season, is a bit much.


Using Houston's offensive production from last season, here was the collective result if you could stream all pitchers used against them:

583 runs
46.5 unearned runs (calculated using the league average)

3.311 ERA

463 walks
1276 hits
1423 innings (how many innings Houston's pitchers pitched)

1.222 WHIP

1170 K's
1423 innings
7.4 K/9

This translates into an average 7 innings of the following performance:

3.311 ERA, 1.222 WHIP, 5.75 K's

In my league, with the 1400 innings cap, an ERA of 3.311 would have finished 2nd of 11 teams (10 teams plus this one), the 1.222 WHIP would have finished 6th of 11 teams, and the 1151 K's would have finished 8th of 11 teams. That is 20 out of a possible 33 points.

Now if you assume a 5% increase in performance by being selective and not using the worst pitchers (which seems like a conservative number even offsetting for the inclusion of bullpen stats), that would be an average 7 inning performance of:

3.145 ERA, 1.161 WHIP, 6.04 K's

Over 1400 innings:

3.145 ERA, 1.161 WHIP, 1209 K's

Those would be worth 27 out of a possible 33 points based on my 2012 league.
(No longer considering the bump).

I also think that the 2013 Houston Astro's may be every bit as bad offensively compared to their 2012 counterparts given the losses of guys like Jed Lowrie, Carlos Lee, Chris Johnson, etc. who were among their most productive bats (on an OPS basis).

I think I am talking myself even more into streaming against the Astros!
Last edited by AHF on Thu Apr 04, 2013 5:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Houston Streaming Thoughts

Postby GiantsFan14 » Thu Apr 04, 2013 4:45 pm

No way should you be giving a bump for being selective with who you start, if anything you should be assuming a worse performance than average to take into account that a good amount of those numbers come from good, already owned pitchers who you can't get on the waiver wire.
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Re: Houston Streaming Thoughts

Postby AHF » Thu Apr 04, 2013 5:13 pm

GiantsFan14 wrote:No way should you be giving a bump for being selective with who you start, if anything you should be assuming a worse performance than average to take into account that a good amount of those numbers come from good, already owned pitchers who you can't get on the waiver wire.


That is a good point. Actually a critical point.

The baseline numbers for last year were still very good, however - particularly since I messed up the strikeout numbers. The K's for the Astros were 1365 instead of 1170. That boosts the K/9 to 8.63 per nine.

Consider that the collective league averages are:

ERA 4.01
(3.31 for 2012 Astros opponents)

WHIP 1.309
(1.222 for 2012 Astros opponents)

K/9 7.6
(8.6 for 2012 Astros opponents)

3.31 ERA, 1.222 WHIP and 1342 K's would have still earned: 10 of 11 points in ERA, 5 of 11 points in WHIP, and 8 of 11 points in K's. 23 of 33 possible points isn't shabby.

So I think the numbers are clearly there for Astros opponents and the question becomes at what point in the talent pool you go to get that value. Ogando level talent seems like a no brainer but do you go with an Ogando type against an average opponent or for a Straily type against Houston?
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