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Realistic projections for Harper HRs?

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Re: Realistic projections for Harper HRs?

Postby Padsin05 » Thu Apr 04, 2013 2:39 am

162 obviously
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Realistic projections for Harper HRs?

Postby lastingsgriller » Thu Apr 04, 2013 9:00 pm

cordscords wrote:
As I said I project conservatively. 30 HR wouldn't surprise me in the slightest, just giving some pause for concern for owners who are banking on that threshold being reached.


I took him at #16 and I expect nothing short of 30 hr. his power is immense.

It is the average that is the biggest question mark to me. It wouldn't surprise me if he hit .250. It wouldn't surprise me if he hit .300. I just don't have a very good read on it.
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Re: Realistic projections for Harper HRs?

Postby cordscords » Fri Apr 05, 2013 3:12 am

lastingsgriller wrote:
cordscords wrote:
As I said I project conservatively. 30 HR wouldn't surprise me in the slightest, just giving some pause for concern for owners who are banking on that threshold being reached.


I took him at #16 and I expect nothing short of 30 hr. his power is immense.

It is the average that is the biggest question mark to me. It wouldn't surprise me if he hit .250. It wouldn't surprise me if he hit .300. I just don't have a very good read on it.


Keep in mind the greatest age 20 season in MLB history, in power terms, belongs to Mel Ott who smacked 42 homers in 1929. Overall, only six players have reached the 30 HR threshold at that age. If 25 HR is conservative, 28 is moderate, and 32 is aggressive.

Batting average is probably the hardest stat to project for hitters. His xbabip last year was 22 points higher than his babip, indicating he maybe got a little unlucky. I also expect a slight improvement in plate discipline accounting for maturation in his game. I have him projected to hit .280.
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Re: Realistic projections for Harper HRs?

Postby J35J » Fri Apr 05, 2013 9:49 am

cordscords wrote:
lastingsgriller wrote:
cordscords wrote:
As I said I project conservatively. 30 HR wouldn't surprise me in the slightest, just giving some pause for concern for owners who are banking on that threshold being reached.


I took him at #16 and I expect nothing short of 30 hr. his power is immense.

It is the average that is the biggest question mark to me. It wouldn't surprise me if he hit .250. It wouldn't surprise me if he hit .300. I just don't have a very good read on it.


Keep in mind the greatest age 20 season in MLB history, in power terms, belongs to Mel Ott who smacked 42 homers in 1929. Overall, only six players have reached the 30 HR threshold at that age. If 25 HR is conservative, 28 is moderate, and 32 is aggressive.

Batting average is probably the hardest stat to project for hitters. His xbabip last year was 22 points higher than his babip, indicating he maybe got a little unlucky. I also expect a slight improvement in plate discipline accounting for maturation in his game. I have him projected to hit .280.


A) 20 year olds today are so much more advanced physically and in the amount they play year around that it's hard to compare them to guys from even 20 years ago, let alone 50+ years ago. B) Harper is also one of the very, very few young guys that are on a whole different level of potential awesomeness that you can't really just lump him in with all the others that have come before him of the same age.

With all that said I still think the 25-30hr numbers are the safest projections for this year.
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Re: Realistic projections for Harper HRs?

Postby Ender » Fri Apr 05, 2013 10:15 am

Yeah I have no problem with someone being conservative, I just had an issue with your specific example. Heyward projected as someone who was going to struggle to display power (Hosmer does too as an example) while Harper points directly to a pure power hitter.
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Re: Realistic projections for Harper HRs?

Postby cordscords » Fri Apr 05, 2013 12:53 pm

Ender wrote:Yeah I have no problem with someone being conservative, I just had an issue with your specific example. Heyward projected as someone who was going to struggle to display power (Hosmer does too as an example) while Harper points directly to a pure power hitter.


Heyward may not have gotten higher marks on the 20-80 power scale, but he graded out just fine himself. His frame, swing, and plate discipline were additional indicators to supplement his natural power. Heyward was and remains a threat to flirt with 40 HR in a season several times throughout his career.

You did make the point that Heyward put the ball on the ground a lot in his rookie season, and batted ball percentages certainly do need to be factored in. You can gather a lot from one season, but it's still a small sample size. Early in careers those stats tend fluctuate a bit before they begin to stabilize.
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Re: Realistic projections for Harper HRs?

Postby Ender » Fri Apr 05, 2013 2:49 pm

They do for sure but Heyward isn't your swing for the fences type. I don't think Heyward will ever hit 40 HR to be honest but he might turn into a MCab type of hitter who hits an effortless low to mid 30s HR on a regular basis,
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Re: Realistic projections for Harper HRs?

Postby rib217 » Sat Apr 06, 2013 10:05 am

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Realistic projections for Harper HRs?

Postby lastingsgriller » Sat Apr 06, 2013 2:34 pm

Boom, there goes another one. 3 down, 70 to go.
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Re: Realistic projections for Harper HRs?

Postby CBMGreatOne » Sat Apr 06, 2013 3:16 pm

He punished that ball, albeit in Great America Ballpark

I don't see why he won't hit right around 30, with 20-25 SBs, making him well worthy of a first round pick. I'm not sure he can keep pace with CarGo and McCutchen, but he's probably that kind of player this year.

Better question would be, would you rather have Harper or Trout for the rest of the season? I don't think it's a silly question at this point.
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