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Realistic projections for Harper HRs?

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Realistic projections for Harper HRs?

Postby mzu » Wed Apr 03, 2013 8:30 pm

I'm saying 25 but I feel like the majority is thinking way more. What do you guys think? I mean he hasn't even played a full season yet...teams will adjust.
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Re: Realistic projections for Harper HRs?

Postby thedude » Wed Apr 03, 2013 8:45 pm

I think, conservatively, 30.
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Re: Realistic projections for Harper HRs?

Postby Grounded Polo » Wed Apr 03, 2013 8:51 pm

35, beast
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Re: Realistic projections for Harper HRs?

Postby Ender » Wed Apr 03, 2013 9:56 pm

I'd project 30ish. 25 seems like an easy target and I'd be surprised by 40 this early so that ends up around 30.
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Realistic projections for Harper HRs?

Postby lastingsgriller » Wed Apr 03, 2013 10:58 pm

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Re: Realistic projections for Harper HRs?

Postby Element » Wed Apr 03, 2013 11:11 pm

Ender wrote:I'd project 30ish. 25 seems like an easy target and I'd be surprised by 40 this early so that ends up around 30.


30 is a good number. Anything more is just gravy.
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Re: Realistic projections for Harper HRs?

Postby cordscords » Wed Apr 03, 2013 11:25 pm

I projected him at 25, and I like to think I project conservatively. I remember getting excited about a 20 year old Jason Heyward a few years ago, and he still hasn't crossed the 30 HR threshold yet. He's obviously a rare talent, but it's easy to forget sometimes it takes a little bit for younger guys to max out their power ability.
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Re: Realistic projections for Harper HRs?

Postby Ender » Wed Apr 03, 2013 11:39 pm

cordscords wrote:I projected him at 25, and I like to think I project conservatively. I remember getting excited about a 20 year old Jason Heyward a few years ago, and he still hasn't crossed the 30 HR threshold yet. He's obviously a rare talent, but it's easy to forget sometimes it takes a little bit for younger guys to max out their power ability.


Harper has a much higher power tool than Heyward and Heyward was a heavy groundball guy his first year so there was no reason to expect 30. It is really hard to hit 30 HR when you hit the ball on the ground 55% of the time like Heyward did as a rookie. Heyward played full time and hit 18 HR as a rookie, Harper missed a month and hit 22. I don't think it is as simple a comparison as you are making it out to be.
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Re: Realistic projections for Harper HRs?

Postby cordscords » Wed Apr 03, 2013 11:51 pm

Ender wrote:
cordscords wrote:I projected him at 25, and I like to think I project conservatively. I remember getting excited about a 20 year old Jason Heyward a few years ago, and he still hasn't crossed the 30 HR threshold yet. He's obviously a rare talent, but it's easy to forget sometimes it takes a little bit for younger guys to max out their power ability.


Harper has a much higher power tool than Heyward and Heyward was a heavy groundball guy his first year so there was no reason to expect 30. It is really hard to hit 30 HR when you hit the ball on the ground 55% of the time like Heyward did as a rookie. Heyward played full time and hit 18 HR as a rookie, Harper missed a month and hit 22. I don't think it is as simple a comparison as you are making it out to be.


As I said I project conservatively. 30 HR wouldn't surprise me in the slightest, just giving some pause for concern for owners who are banking on that threshold being reached.
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Re: Realistic projections for Harper HRs?

Postby Izenhart » Thu Apr 04, 2013 12:10 am

I projected him to 28 before the season. If I had to redo it I'd give him 32.
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