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Effect of Lineup Position on Production

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Effect of Lineup Position on Production

Postby ZiggyZiggington » Sun Mar 31, 2013 7:18 pm

So obviously your 3 and 4 hitters are going to be your sluggers, your leadoff hitters will get on base and hopefully steal some, but that elusive bottom half of the order becomes a bit of a mixed bag as far as hitting ability and run production. This is only my second season of fantasy baseball, so I haven't really had much a chance to examine personal experience and I figured I would ask here before I spent hours digging through metrics from years past. Of course the higher in the lineup a hitter is, the more plate appearances he will have throughout the season and subsequently better production if due to nothing else than increased chances, so should I spend my time and effort collecting these 1-5 hitters, or can I truly get higher than average production from bottom of the order hitters (chosen selectively of course)?

Obviously a Mark Reynolds hitting in the 6th spot is not going to put up the numbers that Nick Swisher will hitting two spots ahead of him, but will hitting so low be too detrimental on his overall production that it would be worth looking elsewhere? He has 30 HR potential, but hitting 6th will take a good notch out of his run production with the bottom third of the lineup hitting behind him, and with Kipnis, Swisher, and Santana all hitting with power ahead of him, all of whom strikeout their fair share (Reynolds' insanely high 30+SO% notwithstanding) it doesn't seem like there will be a lot of people on base with him at the plate.

Whats your experience?
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Re: Effect of Lineup Position on Production

Postby Izenhart » Sun Mar 31, 2013 7:50 pm

There's a great article on this subject by ESPN's Tristan H. Cockcroft

http://espn.go.com/fantasy/baseball/sto ... p-position
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Re: Effect of Lineup Position on Production

Postby kab21 » Mon Apr 01, 2013 12:57 pm

Without looking specifically at any stats I generally consider 70-75 R's to be the max possible for 5/6 hitters. Likewise a similar number of RBI's for leadoff hitters. there are of course exceptions especially for big HR hitters since they generate their own R and RBI regardless of lineup position. The plate appearances/game is also a big effect on production and the above link had a lot of great info.

I'm not sure I follow your comment about Kipnis, Santana and Swisher K'ing a lot so they won't have good OBP's. Each of them have pretty good OBP's regardless of K's so there should be enough baserunners for Reynolds this year.
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