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AL only auction draft strategy

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AL only auction draft strategy

Postby Rally Cat » Sun Mar 31, 2013 12:42 pm

I'm in a 12 team 5x5 AL only 260.00 auction league. We locked in our keepers yesterday and draft next Sunday. Looking at a couple of positions third base is very weak. And so is second base. Youkilis, Dominquez, Donaldson and Jamey Carrol are the best of the bunch. Second base is almost as bad. Pedroia , Kelly Johnson, Beckham , Infante, Getz and Ryan Roberts are the best avalible.
When it comes my turn to call out a name to bid on would I be wise to call one of the second or third best players at each position in hopes of getting one because most would save their money for the likes of Youkilis and Peddy? I could put one or both at MI or CI and still bid on the better players.
Looking at the prices of players kept and ones that were dumped this league pays high prices for the best players. Don't use my keepers as the guide. That's another story.
First time doing an auction. I have 180. to spend on 15 players.
My keepers are
Price 20
Trout 5.00
Janssen 1.00
Cobb 8.00
Wieters 16.00
Jennings 10.00
Hosmer 5.00
Aybar 15.00
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Re: AL only auction draft strategy

Postby Skin Blues » Sun Mar 31, 2013 1:18 pm

In a 12 team AL only, I don't think the order of nomination will matter that early. Tons of teams are going to have holes all over their lineup. Depends how much money is available for each team and their needs, but I don't think it'll matter to be honest. Make sure you calculate what inflation will be based on keeper prices.
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Re: AL only auction draft strategy

Postby OBPlover » Sun Mar 31, 2013 4:33 pm

I was in a similar situation ..in a setup like that, the top players go for a lot. Prince Fielder went for 75. That's not 75 out of 260, that's 75 out of about $150 to spend. There's just no value in that. Everyone wants the top, top players to hold on to and figure they can always replace the second tier players. The pitchers were relatively cheaper.

My advice is don't overpay. There will be value to be found later in the draft. Also remember to be careful around pitching. Pitching will be very thin. Very few reliable starters and you're going to need to gamble on pitchers in the 10-20 dollar range. Alexi Ogando is a decent sleeper.
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Re: AL only auction draft strategy

Postby Rally Cat » Mon Apr 01, 2013 8:36 am

Looking at last years draft results Verlander and Felix went for 35.00. Darvish went for 23.00 but would go for more now because he is known. These are to top pitchers avalible in this draft.
Felix
Weaver
Dickey
CC Sabathia
Sale
Shields
Scherzer
Morrow
J. Johnson
Lester
Peavy
CJ Wilson

The top hitters are
Albert who went for 49.00 last year but was thrown back .
Fielder
Trumbo
Konerko
Youkilis
Austin Jackson
Ellsbury
Bourn
Melky
Willingham
Cruz
Victorino
Reyes
Cano
Pedroia
Kinslar
Altuve

Then it starting dropping off. I would like to get somebody like Max Scherzer to compliment Price and give me at least 200 K's. Then maybe try to get some cheaper pitchers but pitchers that won't hurt catagories.
Same with hitting. I would like to get a couple of the high 20's low 30's hitting and work from there.
I've never done an auction draft. I'm just thinking that I can probably get a couple of decent players by throwing them out early since the guys with money will want to get the big name guys and save their money early. Thanks for your help.
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Re: AL only auction draft strategy

Postby Rally Cat » Fri Apr 05, 2013 9:18 am

Thought I would bump this . My draft is Sunday. Being a new AL only auction player I can use all the help I can get.
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Re: AL only auction draft strategy

Postby AHF » Fri Apr 05, 2013 1:27 pm

My strategy at the beginning of the auction is to throw out the most expensive players that I have no intention of winning. So if I already have my SS position filled, I throw out all the high $$ shortstops I can, etc. My general feeling on auctions is that you rarely get good value out of the gate (although keep on your toes for a player to go for an uninflated price) and you can get the best value in the mid to late portions of the draft with the main caveat being that if you are bidding on the last player in a particular tier then that can drive prices up above where a similar player went earlier (i.e., if there are 3 competent closers left and then only dregs, you may be better off winning the first of those 3 rather than the last all other things being equal).

My personal philosophy is not to target particular players but to come in with values for people and to react to where value presents itself in the auction. Rookies are boom or bust propositions depending on what they do (the breakout rookies present profit potential that established players don't as Trout shows but the performance and playing time risk is also much higher) and I err on the overly aggressive side with unestablished talent with an elite pedigree (so someone like Wil Myers is very attractive) but I also typically play in mixed leagues where the replacement value of a fill-in is much higher than in an AL only auction.

I don't price enforce past the point of a clear bargain unless it is a player that I really want to own and would recommend that to any new auction participant.

Have fun! Auctions are the best.
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Re: AL only auction draft strategy

Postby Skin Blues » Fri Apr 05, 2013 2:17 pm

Rally Cat wrote:Thought I would bump this . My draft is Sunday. Being a new AL only auction player I can use all the help I can get.

Best advice is to not blow your wad on the top players, and make sure that you have steady if unspectacular producers at each lineup spot. Instead of blowing $45 on Mike Trout and then getting a few $2 scrubs to fill out your OF, you might spend $10 apiece on 5 mid-level OFs like Nick Markakis. Not only does this give you way more at-bats, but you don't have all your eggs in one basket. You will NOT be able to acquire many, if any, full time players from waivers. The teams that have 4-5 stars and 8-9 fringe/platoon players in the starting lineup will lose 100 times out of 100. You simply need to maximize your AB total.

Also, completely ignore position scarcity. If people are overspending on SS then don't get a SS until the price comes down near the end of the auction. You are going to have bottom-tier players on your team, so it might as well be at the positions that have the highest premium put on them. Look at it as paying that 25% "scarcity tax" on a $3 player instead of a $30 player. Replacement level for every position is basically the same, anyway: zilch.

Also in AL/NL Only leagues that use only one catcher, often once everybody has filled the catcher spot in their lineup they will completely ignore the position. This leaves two or three full time catchers that will come very cheap. And anybody that gets full time ABs and comes cheap is your friend. They are obviously not the best hitters but since people are ignoring them they go way below value. I quite often end up with a catcher in my Util spot. The bonus is that catchers get regular days off and if you know in advance you can slot in your second catcher from the util spot and put somebody from your bench into the util spot.
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Re: AL only auction draft strategy

Postby jackie hayes » Fri Apr 05, 2013 2:55 pm

Pay a lot of attention to the other 2b/3b-needy teams. How much money they have coming in, what other positions they're looking for. If a few of them are empty at outfield, eg, nominate a top outfielder early, see if you can bleed them a bit (since you're starting with 2 quality outfielders). Basically just keep a good eye on your competition for those positions (2b & 3b), pre-draft and during. That really only applies to hitters. Everyone will have some pitching spots open, so there's not much useful strategy there, just the usual pre-draft prep, find the cheap players you like, etc.
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