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Who will win the AL East? - Blue Jays 55%

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Who will win the AL east?

Poll ended at Thu Mar 28, 2013 3:14 pm

NY Yankees
1
2%
Baltimore
3
7%
Tampa Bay
13
30%
Toronto
24
55%
Boston
3
7%
 
Total votes : 44

Re: Who will win the AL East?

Postby SpecialFNK » Wed Mar 27, 2013 7:41 am

how is the Jays staff pretty awful?
you start with the 2012 NL Cy Young winner RA Dickey.
Brandon Morrow improved last year to 2.96 /1.11.
Josh Johnson is back healthy, and a couple years ago was one of the best pitchers in baseball.
Mark Buehrle is pretty solid for a number 4.

the Jays picked the right time to go for it. both Red Sox and Yankees are not that good. with a new set up having 2 more wild card teams, the Yankees still might not make the playoffs this season. the Yankees are looking worse and worse. trading for Vernon Wells. then yesterday signing Lyle Overbay, who could get semi regular playing time at 1B.
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Re: Who will win the AL East?

Postby Ender » Wed Mar 27, 2013 9:42 am

how is the Jays staff pretty awful?
you start with the 2012 NL Cy Young winner RA Dickey.
Brandon Morrow improved last year to 2.96 /1.11.
Josh Johnson is back healthy, and a couple years ago was one of the best pitchers in baseball.
Mark Buehrle is pretty solid for a number 4.


I said could be awful, not that it is awful. When you change a sentence in a quote you change the meaning too.

Dickey is old and moving to the AL and the K rate spike seems flukey. I like Dickey but he isn't a safe ace like a Price is
Morrow is erratic as heck and his skills did not support that ERA at all last year, in fact he pitched more like a 4 ERA guy and that was an improvement over his previous years which were more like a 4.50, he is also coming off an injury.
Josh Johnson has still lost velocity, is moving to a hitters park in the AL. I'm uncomfortable projecting him under a 3.50 ERA. I think 2013 is more likely than old JJ.
Buehrle scares the crud out of me moving to that park.
All of their #5 starter choices are really iffy as well.

Seems like you are only looking at the upside and ignoring everything else. Yeah they could have a good rotation but it isn't particularly likely unless everything bounces their way.

As for the Rays not being best because of the park, I don't differentiate on that because park factors are impossible to properly measure. If you want to start looking at it from that angle then the Rays offense is better than it looks and the Blue Jays offense isn't as good as it looks and it is all a slippery slope because how a park treats one player isn't how it treats another.
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Re: Who will win the AL East?

Postby Mookie4ever » Wed Mar 27, 2013 9:58 am

Ender wrote:
how is the Jays staff pretty awful?
you start with the 2012 NL Cy Young winner RA Dickey.
Brandon Morrow improved last year to 2.96 /1.11.
Josh Johnson is back healthy, and a couple years ago was one of the best pitchers in baseball.
Mark Buehrle is pretty solid for a number 4.


I said could be awful, not that it is awful. When you change a sentence in a quote you change the meaning too.

Dickey is old and moving to the AL and the K rate spike seems flukey. I like Dickey but he isn't a safe ace like a Price is
Morrow is erratic as heck and his skills did not support that ERA at all last year, in fact he pitched more like a 4 ERA guy and that was an improvement over his previous years which were more like a 4.50, he is also coming off an injury.
Josh Johnson has still lost velocity, is moving to a hitters park in the AL. I'm uncomfortable projecting him under a 3.50 ERA. I think 2013 is more likely than old JJ.
Buehrle scares the crud out of me moving to that park.
All of their #5 starter choices are really iffy as well.

Seems like you are only looking at the upside and ignoring everything else. Yeah they could have a good rotation but it isn't particularly likely unless everything bounces their way.

As for the Rays not being best because of the park, I don't differentiate on that because park factors are impossible to properly measure. If you want to start looking at it from that angle then the Rays offense is better than it looks and the Blue Jays offense isn't as good as it looks and it is all a slippery slope because how a park treats one player isn't how it treats another.


Agree and disagree. Morrow is coming into his own and will be a strong contender for AL Cy this year. Buehrle will be fine. Outside of last year he has pitched his entire career in the AL. 12 straight years pitching > 200 inn, his K/9 is as high as it has ever been and he is only 34. He will be just fine.

Sure there are question marks in the starting rotation. Dickey may regress, who knows what to expect from Johnson and the fifth starter. What nobody has mentioned is the kick ass bullpen. Sure there is Santos and Janssen but the best closer candidate is Delabar who is just nasty. Add Jeffress and Oliver and a healthy McGowan and Cecil and this is one of the best bullpens in baseball.
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Re: Who will win the AL East?

Postby Skin Blues » Wed Mar 27, 2013 11:53 am

Ender wrote:Morrow is erratic as heck and his skills did not support that ERA at all last year, in fact he pitched more like a 4 ERA guy and that was an improvement over his previous years which were more like a 4.50, he is also coming off an injury.

What "skills" are you looking at that point to a 4.50 ERA in 2011, and a 4.00 in 2012? Is this a consistent skill set that you use for all pitchers? Or do you look at different skills for each year and each player to fit your preconceived opinions of how good they are?
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Re: Who will win the AL East?

Postby Ender » Wed Mar 27, 2013 12:49 pm

FB guy who gives up too many walks in a HR hitting park. I do not think that 4.50ish ERA he had in 2010+2011 are flukes based on the stats like many do basically. When you constantly pitch from behind, leave the ball up so people can get a lot of lift on it and only have one positive pitch which is a slider you end up with 25% of your starts being disasters and a high ERA. Stick Morrow on the Giants and I like him a whole lot more but that park is completely wrong for his profile before last year. He was a completely different pitcher last year so hard to judge him now.
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Re: Who will win the AL East?

Postby Skin Blues » Wed Mar 27, 2013 3:10 pm

Could have just said "option B" and saved some time.
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Re: Who will win the AL East?

Postby Mookie4ever » Wed Mar 27, 2013 3:21 pm

Baltimore gets zero love.
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Re: Who will win the AL East?

Postby A Fleshner Fantasy » Wed Mar 27, 2013 3:46 pm

Seriously guys? I had to be the first to vote for the O's? Okay, I'm a bit biased. But still, they have a real chance.
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Re: Who will win the AL East?

Postby Pogotheostrich » Wed Mar 27, 2013 3:51 pm

A Fleshner Fantasy wrote:Seriously guys? I had to be the first to vote for the O's? Okay, I'm a bit biased. But still, they have a real chance.

Sure they have a chance but I don't think I've seen a pre-season prediction that has them winning the division. Most I've seen has them finishing last.
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Re: Who will win the AL East?

Postby Izenhart » Wed Mar 27, 2013 4:12 pm

A Fleshner Fantasy wrote:Seriously guys? I had to be the first to vote for the O's? Okay, I'm a bit biased. But still, they have a real chance.


I think the O's finish 2nd but they could challenge for 1st. I knew this would be a landslide poll so I gave them a sympathy vote. :-D
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