Overall I think this is the most well-rounded team I've ever drafted. It could suffer from being a young team, but it's the first year of a 3-year keeper league so I'm not overly worried about that. What do you all think? Where are the holes? Hot should I target places to improve?
12-Team Daily H2H, 5x5 plus OBP and QS - First year of a 3-Year Keeper League
C - Mike Napoli 1B - Freddie Freeman 2B - Aaron Hill 3B - Will Middlebrooks SS - Jose Reyes OF - Mike Trout OF - Yoenis Cespedes OF - Norichika Aoki Util - Todd Frazier (1B, 3B, OF) Util - Josh Rutledge (2B, SS) BN - Michael Cuddyer (1B, OF) BN - Manny Machado (3B) BN - Aaron Hicks (OF)
SP - Cliff Lee SP - RA Dickey SP - James Shields P - Marco Estrada P - Alex Cobb P - Mike Fiers RP - Fernando Rodney RP - Jason Grilli BN - Jason Hammel
What are your thoughts? Am I excited for good reason, or am I overlooking something I should be terrified about?
Last edited by Buttermilk Pancake on Tue Mar 26, 2013 1:16 am, edited 1 time in total.
Solid production C through SS. Love Jose to go nuts in Toronto. 100 runs, 45 steals, 15 homers. All day. Mike Napoli on a prove-yourself contract in a park that was basically made for him. Good situation there. I'm down on everybody else. I hope you didn't pass on Cabrera or Braun for Trout. I'd probably take Kemp and Cano over Trout this year too. I know his line from last season is a wet dream, but expecting that two years in a row from a guy going into his second year just doesn't seem like a good bet with a top three pick. Cespedes, though, could have a Troutian season this year. He's the real deal.
Cliff Lee needs to go ape for your pitching staff. RA Dickey in the AL, in a hitters park, in the toughest division in baseball with trips to Fenway and Yankee stadium once a month is going to be a sad follow up to last year. RA Dickey's mom declined his option in her keeper league when he got traded.
What about the rest of my pitching, is it really that rough--particularly for a keeper league? Dickey has not had a good spring, and he'll be playing mostly in hitters parks, but the Yanks and Sox aren't really the Yanks and Sox of old...
As a Jay fan I think Dickey will do fine. He won't have the same #'s as last season but he will be a good #2 or #3. Josh Johnson is our ace.
My thoughts on this roster
Infield is solid but I believe your best 3B is on the bench - Machado. As long as Reyes is healthy he will put up career #'s in Toronto. I don't know what to make with Rutledge he could go off or go ice cold, it's a crapshoot. He's been poor in spring and tailed off badly last season.
Outfield. Having Trout and Cespedes has to feel amazing. Two of the young superstars. Aoki I'm not so sure about but I am a big Cuddyer guy, he gets undervalued especially hitting in the thin air.
Pitching. Lee is money. Dickey (see above). Shields at the very least is a valuable source of K's. High on Cobb this year. Estrada and Fiers have upside but pitch in a hitter friendly park so don't expect ERA or WHIP help there. If Rodney duplicates last season's #'s you are laughing. If he reverts to Rodney of past you are crying. Grilli, meh. I'd look to upgrade there.
Overall - Its good but temper your excitement a tad.
Your pitching isn't horrible and anyways, I like going bargain bin hunting with my pitchers and making gains in hitting categories as much as I can early in drafts. Cobb and Estrada could be there for you in a big way. Detwiler, Ogando or if somebody bails on Clay Buchholz early could help you more than having Grilli.
On second thought, I really like Cuddyer this year. I took him really late in a couple drafts figuring a bounce back was in order and that he probably has too much pop to not put up at least one really nice season in Coors. I didn't bother to look into it too much and having done that I'm not saying people need to hunt him down, but he's a sick bench option if you're going to go high risk/high reward at 1B with a guy like Napoli, or even a Morneau or if you might have an opening at UTIL at some point in the season. He'll play his way off your bench.
As for who your best third basemen is, when you're dealing with guys with limited ML experience, it's tough to figure out. Machado is super young. That's great for the O's, not great for fantasy. I also think looking at career minor league numbers can be misleading... but, if you know what you're looking for you can cherry pick your way to an answer with those numbers but without getting to in-depth about it I think it's safe to say Machado is a couple years away from making a big fantasy impact.
IMO, AA is where hitters really get challenged for the first time by pitchers who can control a FB and at least one off-speed offering. 400 PA's of AA experience is enough time to at least get a vague idea of a guys potential. As a 20 year old, when Longoria got to AA he didn't light it up. The following year though, he got 447 PA's in AA to start the year and burned the league to the ground with a .307/.403/.528 line which is great. Machado was two years younger than Longo when he got his introduction to AA, and went .266/.352/.438. Those are great numbers for a 19 year old, but the .438 SLG against AA pitchers as a 19 year old suggests he's probably a year or two away from being able to consistently hit for power in the Bigs. He's a better prospect than Middlebrooks, but Middlebrooks might be more major league ready. In 2011 over 397 PA's he went .302/.345/.502 against AA pitching and kept it going starting the next year at AAA and dropping a 1.000 OPS in 100 PAs before getting called up to the bigs. Middlebrooks is a better hitter right now. He's a lot more likely to have what it takes to be a reliable fantasy 3B right now.
Im a little late to this show, as I think ks has done a great job analyzing this team. I know its going to sound against the grain for a keeper league, but Im worried about the youth of your offense for this year. On the other hand it'll get you well prepared for the next couple. Personally, I'm not in the club that thinks Fiers is going to repeat his ridiculous numbers in a larger sample size, but pitchers can be replaced easily during the season compared to other positions. All in all, Id be excited about this team as well.
I'm worried about the hitting. There's too much youth. You're banking on too many young players to improve in order for you to stay competitive. It's a lot to ask for with so much inexperience. Like the first guy I said, I hope you didn't pass on Braun or worse Caberera for Trout. I could be dead wrong, and Trout could have another sensational season, but it seems like too much risk. Whereas, the other two you know what you're gonna get. I'm not expecting Braun to get suspended either. I actually think I prefer Machado to Middles in regards to your 3B. But your 3B looks weak. With Hill you're rolling the dice. Which Hill are you gonna get? Freeman, you can count me in as a believer. He looks legit. Rest of the lineup looks meh, I think the hitting is gonna need some help. Another power bat will be needed.
The good, unlike some, I actually think it's a good pitching staff. But do yourself a favour and drop Fiers before he blows up your ERA in the first week. RA Dickey should be fine. That division isn't nearly as scary as everyone likes to think. The scariest bats are of the ones Dickey players for and he won't be playin' em. Lee is a nice guy to anchor your staff. You're definitely gonna need help in saves though.
im late coming across this post but im sure youve gotten rid of hicks by now dude is killing me on my roto team not contributing him at all only reason i keep him around is im hoping he turns it around and b theres not much out there via my leagues wire haha anyway i do like your infield alot and solid choice with frazier as im expecting big things from him this year