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Adam Dunn vs Justin Morneau

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Re: Adam Dunn vs Justin Morneau

Postby Izenhart » Mon Mar 25, 2013 11:36 am

Ender wrote:Oh yeah just to add one more thing. AVG is down league wide by a considerable amount so that .210 AVG he gives you is like a .230 AVG from 5 years ago. League average used to be around .270 it is now around .250. Pitching is on the rise and teams are valuing defense a lot more than they used to and obviously the harder steroids are out of the game and those really helped with the aging curve. These new steroids don't do nearly as much.


Aww cmon, the balls were wound tighter back then. :-°
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Re: Adam Dunn vs Justin Morneau

Postby Ender » Mon Mar 25, 2013 11:43 am

Izenhart wrote:
Ender wrote:Oh yeah just to add one more thing. AVG is down league wide by a considerable amount so that .210 AVG he gives you is like a .230 AVG from 5 years ago. League average used to be around .270 it is now around .250. Pitching is on the rise and teams are valuing defense a lot more than they used to and obviously the harder steroids are out of the game and those really helped with the aging curve. These new steroids don't do nearly as much.


Aww cmon, the balls were wound tighter back then. :-°


Oh the balls were definitely different but that was only for a short stint when they switched companies. Dunn was still a rookie back then.
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Re: Adam Dunn vs Justin Morneau

Postby Fade2White12 » Mon Mar 25, 2013 12:02 pm

I know I'm getting all existential here, but I'm not ready to believe that 2011-12 is what Adam Dunn now "is." It's hard to argue with what you said because most of it is true. He does have some fluky and unsustainable metrics, but he also has a few that signal improvement in addition to regression - particularly BABIP. Honestly, I think some of his decline could even be attributable to something a bit more intangible and less quantifiable (depending on how much stock you put in such things).

I think what we can absolutely agree on is that he is likely to provide legitimate value in three categories. The exact extent of which he hurts a fourth category can be debatable - either it's manageable or absolutely destructive. If it's the latter, he's borderline not rosterable. If it's the former (which I tend to think), he can be useful at his ADP.
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Re: Adam Dunn vs Justin Morneau

Postby Garry26 » Mon Mar 25, 2013 12:52 pm

Dunn will kill your batting average. However, if the twists and turns of your draft leaves you with a lot of 250-268 type hitters, Dunn may be a possibility.

Be honest with yourself when calculating what you think your team batting average will be. Be realistic. Don't count on guys who usually hit .260 to all of a sudden hit 300.

If most of your guys are 250-260 types, there's a good chance you'll end up with a low batting average score. Anything under 260 will probably get you a 3 or less in batting average. 265-270 gets you 4-6pts with 5 being the average. Dunn becomes viable then.

Released from the burden of Batting Average opens up tons of power hitting BA nightmares for you. Uggla, Pena, Russel Martin, Salamacchia, and other power freaks you normally wouldn't grab if you had a gun shoved in your mouth.
I love mock drafts.
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Re: Adam Dunn vs Justin Morneau

Postby jfg » Mon Mar 25, 2013 2:42 pm

In leagues where OBP replaces avg Dunn's probably still a top 50 player.
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Re: Adam Dunn vs Justin Morneau

Postby J35J » Mon Mar 25, 2013 2:49 pm

jfg wrote:In leagues where OBP replaces avg Dunn's probably still a top 50 player.


I'd have to re check things but I doubt he is if he's a .330-.340OBP guy...he's not the .380+ guy he used to be.
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Re: Adam Dunn vs Justin Morneau

Postby jfg » Mon Mar 25, 2013 8:36 pm

Yeah top 50 might be pushing it now that I think about it. He was right around there in my league but we count total bases and I forgot about that. Still probably top 100 though, which is a lot better than where he ranks in standard leagues. I wouldn't touch him in a standard league.
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Re: Adam Dunn vs Justin Morneau

Postby BJSFAN123 » Wed Mar 27, 2013 10:39 pm

How about Morneau vs Morales?

Two 1B/DH's I think could have similar numbers at the end of the season.

However, I think I go Morneau because he still has that small chance of being a MVP type player in my mind..but I have a hard time letting go of players.
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Re: Adam Dunn vs Justin Morneau

Postby Ender » Wed Mar 27, 2013 11:03 pm

I'd go Morneau because he'll play every day and Morales could still sit vs LHP even though he probably should not.
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