I think he's much closer to a true .230-.240 hitter.
That is really the rub. I think he is a true .200 hitter. Dunn is a career .240 hitter, his K% has spiked another 5% recently, his foot speed has slowed down even more and he isn't getting lift on the ball as often as he used to. All of his skills are on a 3-4 year pattern of erosion at this point. What is flukey about last year is the career high HR/FB% and when that comes down it is going to take HR, R, RBI and AVG with it. He basically has shown the same thing Teix did when his AVG tanked only instead of starting from a .290 hitter and going to a .250 hitter he started as a .240 hitter and now is a .200 hitter.
This isn't like the Dunn years of old when he'd hit .250+ for big chunks of the year and then throw in a mega cold streak where he hits .170 and drags down the AVG. This was a long sustained low AVG, he never had a big cold streak and when he was insanely hot he still only managed to hit .230. If you are hoping for anything over .220 you are praying he just lucks into hits.
As for the runs yes 75 is probably about the right number. He has had full every day seasons of 79, 81, and 85 back when he was a .380 OBP guy instead of the .330 guy he is now and with interleague play he will miss some games for sure. Target 75, hope he gets 80 to get you some profit, consider yourself blessed if he gets 85. Last year really was Dunn's upside at this point, you should expect a weaker season not a better one. Maybe not falling off a cliff or anything but anything he gives you over a .200 AVG, 35 HR, 90 RBI year should be your profit, not your expectation.
I don't think anyone who drafts Morneau is a hero (even in Canada) or Dunn a moron though, it was a joke~.