Adam Dunn vs Justin Morneau - Fantasy Baseball Cafe 2014 Fantasy Baseball Cafe
100% Deposit Bonus for Cafe Members!

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Adam Dunn vs Justin Morneau

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

Adam Dunn vs Justin Morneau

Postby BJSFAN123 » Sun Mar 24, 2013 11:38 pm

Two guys you can get late to provide some power, obviously Dunn has more HR potential but can also kill you in average, who has the better overall fantasy year in 2013?
BJSFAN123
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar

Posts: 2352
Joined: 6 May 2007
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Adam Dunn vs Justin Morneau

Postby Ender » Sun Mar 24, 2013 11:58 pm

Not even close. If you draft Dunn you are a moron, if you draft Morneau you are a hero (to Canada at least).
Last edited by Ender on Mon Mar 25, 2013 9:07 am, edited 1 time in total.
Ender
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

CafeholicFantasy Expert
Posts: 7733
Joined: 30 Apr 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Adam Dunn vs Justin Morneau

Postby Izenhart » Mon Mar 25, 2013 8:48 am

Depends on the league, in 5x5 roto it's hard to justify Dunn at all, and Morneau is the easy choice. If you are in a H2H league that counts OBP instead of BA then Dunn is the better play. I think their values are similar in standard H2H leagues, it just depends on your team makeup.
Izenhart
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 1605
(Past Year: 299)
Joined: 22 Mar 2012
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Big Papiville

Re: Adam Dunn vs Justin Morneau

Postby Element » Mon Mar 25, 2013 9:06 am

It would not shock me in the least to see Morneau garner some AL MVP votes this season. I liken his situation current to that of Lance Berkman's heading into 2011. A oft injured veteran player that FINALLY had a full offseason of strength and conditioning (and baseball drills) instead of rehabbing. Morneau looked real good in the WBC and during spring games so far. I am very confident in him this season.
Image
Element
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
Response TeamCafe RankerMock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 4909
(Past Year: 767)
Joined: 25 Feb 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Adam Dunn vs Justin Morneau

Postby Fade2White12 » Mon Mar 25, 2013 9:26 am

In Roto, it's tough to take on a full year of ABs from a player like Dunn. But with his OBP skills and plus power, he is truly a 3-category 1B. Now his drain on BA eliminates much of the positive value in those other categories, but if his BABIP and K% improve closer to his career averages, he can make that drain a little more palatable - like his career .240 average.
Image
Fade2White12
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
CafeholicCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyePick 3 Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 3852
(Past Year: 41)
Joined: 7 Mar 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Michigan

Re: Adam Dunn vs Justin Morneau

Postby Ender » Mon Mar 25, 2013 9:29 am

I consider last year to be Dunn's best case scenario. More likely he will hit .210 with 35 HR and only like 75 R. He didn't manage to hit over .231 a single month last year even when he was hot he couldn't manage it. He struck out in 40% of his PA against lefties last year. To be honest his collapse rate into a part time player is much higher than his odds of repeating last year.
Ender
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

CafeholicFantasy Expert
Posts: 7733
Joined: 30 Apr 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Adam Dunn vs Justin Morneau

Postby Fade2White12 » Mon Mar 25, 2013 10:46 am

Now I'll preface this with saying that in a normal 5x5, I'd likely choose Morneau as well. But I believe Dunn could use some positive words considering the statement that anyone who drafts Dunn is a "moron."

Dunn is batting in the cleanup spot this season, and 75 runs would mark his lowest total for a full season in 10 years. He scored 87 runs last year while missing a dozen games, and that's with essentially full-season career lows in BA and OBP. With a BABIP 40 points below his career average while sporting a normal LD%, I think he's much closer to a true .230-.240 hitter. Now that's gross no matter what, but in H2H or daily leagues you can mitigate some of his liability by playing his splits or while he's hot. The positive with Dunn is that you know exactly what he is - one of three outcomes during each AB. With Morneau, it's the absolute opposite, as who knows how he'll perform post-injury. He's also only a year and a half younger than Dunn, so Morneau's no spring chicken either. I think that the argument could be made for Dunn, and in any league that counts OBP or OPS, I'm sure I'd lean his way.
Image
Fade2White12
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
CafeholicCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyePick 3 Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 3852
(Past Year: 41)
Joined: 7 Mar 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Michigan

Re: Adam Dunn vs Justin Morneau

Postby Ender » Mon Mar 25, 2013 11:03 am

I think he's much closer to a true .230-.240 hitter.


That is really the rub. I think he is a true .200 hitter. Dunn is a career .240 hitter, his K% has spiked another 5% recently, his foot speed has slowed down even more and he isn't getting lift on the ball as often as he used to. All of his skills are on a 3-4 year pattern of erosion at this point. What is flukey about last year is the career high HR/FB% and when that comes down it is going to take HR, R, RBI and AVG with it. He basically has shown the same thing Teix did when his AVG tanked only instead of starting from a .290 hitter and going to a .250 hitter he started as a .240 hitter and now is a .200 hitter.

This isn't like the Dunn years of old when he'd hit .250+ for big chunks of the year and then throw in a mega cold streak where he hits .170 and drags down the AVG. This was a long sustained low AVG, he never had a big cold streak and when he was insanely hot he still only managed to hit .230. If you are hoping for anything over .220 you are praying he just lucks into hits.

As for the runs yes 75 is probably about the right number. He has had full every day seasons of 79, 81, and 85 back when he was a .380 OBP guy instead of the .330 guy he is now and with interleague play he will miss some games for sure. Target 75, hope he gets 80 to get you some profit, consider yourself blessed if he gets 85. Last year really was Dunn's upside at this point, you should expect a weaker season not a better one. Maybe not falling off a cliff or anything but anything he gives you over a .200 AVG, 35 HR, 90 RBI year should be your profit, not your expectation.

I don't think anyone who drafts Morneau is a hero (even in Canada) or Dunn a moron though, it was a joke~.
Ender
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

CafeholicFantasy Expert
Posts: 7733
Joined: 30 Apr 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Adam Dunn vs Justin Morneau

Postby J35J » Mon Mar 25, 2013 11:10 am

Ender wrote:
I think he's much closer to a true .230-.240 hitter.


That is really the rub. I think he is a true .200 hitter. Dunn is a career .240 hitter, his K% has spiked another 5% recently, his foot speed has slowed down even more and he isn't getting lift on the ball as often as he used to. All of his skills are on a 3-4 year pattern of erosion at this point. What is flukey about last year is the career high HR/FB% and when that comes down it is going to take HR, R, RBI and AVG with it. He basically has shown the same thing Teix did when his AVG tanked only instead of starting from a .290 hitter and going to a .250 hitter he started as a .240 hitter and now is a .200 hitter.

This isn't like the Dunn years of old when he'd hit .250+ for big chunks of the year and then throw in a mega cold streak where he hits .170 and drags down the AVG. This was a long sustained low AVG, he never had a big cold streak and when he was insanely hot he still only managed to hit .230. If you are hoping for anything over .220 you are praying he just lucks into hits.

As for the runs yes 75 is probably about the right number. He has had full every day seasons of 79, 81, and 85 back when he was a .380 OBP guy instead of the .330 guy he is now and with interleague play he will miss some games for sure. Target 75, hope he gets 80 to get you some profit, consider yourself blessed if he gets 85. Last year really was Dunn's upside at this point, you should expect a weaker season not a better one. Maybe not falling off a cliff or anything but anything he gives you over a .200 AVG, 35 HR, 90 RBI year should be your profit, not your expectation.

I don't think anyone who drafts Morneau is a hero (even in Canada) or Dunn a moron though, it was a joke~.


I like to just wait for you to post Ender, that way I can just +1 it and move on and don't have do any typing myself. ;-D
J35J
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterPick 3 Weekly Winner
Posts: 10467
(Past Year: 398)
Joined: 26 Jan 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Adam Dunn vs Justin Morneau

Postby Ender » Mon Mar 25, 2013 11:26 am

Oh yeah just to add one more thing. AVG is down league wide by a considerable amount so that .210 AVG he gives you is like a .230 AVG from 5 years ago. League average used to be around .270 it is now around .250. Pitching is on the rise and teams are valuing defense a lot more than they used to and obviously the harder steroids are out of the game and those really helped with the aging curve. These new steroids don't do nearly as much.
Ender
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

CafeholicFantasy Expert
Posts: 7733
Joined: 30 Apr 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Next

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 6 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Today's Games
Friday, Aug. 22
(All times are EST, weather icons show forecast for game time)

Baltimore at Chi Cubs
(2:20 pm)
Houston at Cleveland
(7:05 pm)
Chi White Sox at NY Yankees
(7:05 pm)
St. Louis at Philadelphia
(7:05 pm)
San Francisco at Washington
(7:05 pm)
Tampa Bay at Toronto
(7:07 pm)
Atlanta at Cincinnati
(7:10 pm)
Seattle at Boston
(7:10 pm)
Kansas City at Texas
(8:05 pm)
Pittsburgh at Milwaukee
(8:10 pm)
Detroit at Minnesota
(8:10 pm)
Miami at Colorado
(8:40 pm)
San Diego at Arizona
(9:40 pm)
LA Angels at Oakland
(10:05 pm)
NY Mets at LA Dodgers
(10:10 pm)

  • Fantasy Baseball
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact