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What projections do you like best?

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What projections do you like best?

Postby footballisbetter.com » Sun Mar 24, 2013 10:26 pm

When generating a draft list/spreadsheet what projections do you like the best?

Cairo? Zips? Steamer? etc

For instance here are some for Cano- http://www.fantasypros.com/mlb/projecti ... n-cano.php
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Re: What projections do you like best?

Postby Ender » Sun Mar 24, 2013 10:55 pm

They all stink. Make your own.
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Re: What projections do you like best?

Postby wrveres » Mon Mar 25, 2013 12:22 am

ill put my money on the monkey. ;-D
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Re: What projections do you like best?

Postby fantasyfiend » Mon Mar 25, 2013 4:49 am

I like ZiPS for hitters (does a good job projecting minor leaguers w/o major league experience). For instance, ZiPS projected Trout & Altuve as top 5 at their positions last spring, while the other projection systems had those guys as negatives/undraftable.

For pitchers, I like Steamer. Based on post-season studies done by fantasy sites & other reputable math people, Steamer ranks at or near the top in pitcher forecasting accuracy every year.
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Re: What projections do you like best?

Postby Element » Mon Mar 25, 2013 9:08 am

Ender wrote:They all stink. Make your own.


;-D
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Re: What projections do you like best?

Postby footballisbetter.com » Mon Mar 25, 2013 12:33 pm

what's the monkey? :*)

I have my own rankings sheet to use for my auction with $ values. What I am looking for is something that will be somewhat reliable for me to glance out to see what areas I may need help in. For instance- if I am light on power halfway through the auction, I can try to target some guys who are projecting for homers.
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Re: What projections do you like best?

Postby Skin Blues » Mon Mar 25, 2013 12:36 pm

Short answer is make your own.

Long answer is, make your own with the guidance of Steamer and ZiPS, in the categories of their respective strengths, and sprinkle in some common sense. Rockies players have inflated RBI projections from Steamer, for example. And you'll want to manually adjust saves totals since they constantly change. Razzball has decent saves projections as well, I think, and they are updated every so often. And use the playing time projections given by the Fans on fangraphs, but again, update based on injuries and position battles. If you're really lazy, then just use the Steamer set that is on Razzball. Most projections are about as good as one another, but the ones on Razzball have pretty good playing time worked into them and are constantly updated, if you want to do one-stop (free) shopping. ZiPS requires a bit of work to get them to be useful.
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Re: What projections do you like best?

Postby brock middlebrook » Mon Mar 25, 2013 1:41 pm

Skin Blues wrote:Short answer is make your own.

Long answer is, make your own with the guidance of Steamer and ZiPS, in the categories of their respective strengths, and sprinkle in some common sense. Rockies players have inflated RBI projections from Steamer, for example. And you'll want to manually adjust saves totals since they constantly change. Razzball has decent saves projections as well, I think, and they are updated every so often. And use the playing time projections given by the Fans on fangraphs, but again, update based on injuries and position battles. If you're really lazy, then just use the Steamer set that is on Razzball. Most projections are about as good as one another, but the ones on Razzball have pretty good playing time worked into them and are constantly updated, if you want to do one-stop (free) shopping. ZiPS requires a bit of work to get them to be useful.


What are your thoughts on PECOTA?
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Re: What projections do you like best?

Postby Skin Blues » Mon Mar 25, 2013 3:00 pm

I've never paid for it. The concept seems good though. Similar to ZiPS in that it looks at comparable players and predicts a career path. I think it's kinda changed over the years as different people have taken over control of it, if I'm not mistaken.
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Re: What projections do you like best?

Postby wrveres » Mon Mar 25, 2013 9:41 pm

wrveres wrote:ill put my money on the monkey. ;-D


marcel the monkey math

results here
i dont think tango published a 2013 list, though its something you can do yourself
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