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Reasons to take a Pitcher in the first few Rounds?

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Re: Reasons to take a Pitcher in the first few Rounds?

Postby GiantsFan14 » Fri Mar 22, 2013 3:46 am

rookies and cream wrote:
GiantsFan14 wrote:If they're the best player on the board by a decent margin. I'd say that happens for Kershaw at around 20 overall.


I'm curious about the bottom group of hitters you would take before those top tier pitchers (Kershaw, Verlander, and Strasburg).

According to MDP, these players would be:
Josh Hamilton
Buster Posey
Jose Bautista
Adrian Beltre
Justin Upton
Evan Longoria
David Wright
Bryce Harper
Dustin Pedroia
Jose Reyes

I'm assuming you would take Hamilton who represents the 13th hitter off the board. That means you would take 7 more. Personally, I would start considering those pitchers before Hamilton (at 13 overall), but I think you could make a good argument for Hamilton, Bautista, and Pedroia before them.


I'd take Pedroia and Bautista long before I took Kershaw. I think they're both borderline first rounders this year. I'd also take Beltre, Adam Jones, and Hamilton before them. I also have AGonz ranked ahead of them, but given his ADP I'd probably take Kershaw first and hope to get him in the 3rd round. I guess that puts him at 18th overall.
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Re: Reasons to take a Pitcher in the first few Rounds?

Postby SecretAgentMan » Fri Mar 22, 2013 5:37 am

To me Kershaw is a solid late round 2 pick. You can certainly debate whether certain guys that normally go round 2 to 3 are better. To me you take the best player available.
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Re: Reasons to take a Pitcher in the first few Rounds?

Postby Pogotheostrich » Fri Mar 22, 2013 9:23 am

jefferey13 wrote:Heres the issue, if everyone in your league overvalues pitchers and is snapping up, they are no longer overvalued, you are under valuing them. Value is only what the market says the value is. So you have to draft accordingly. I mean if the top 20 pitchers go in the first 20 picks and you don't take someone until the 4-5th, and then again in round 8-9 round, you're looking at Morrow/Sanchez being your aces and now you basically are going to lose in W/K/ERA/WHIP.


That's not exactly true. Value is determined also by the numbers they put up not 100% what the market determines. Pitching is deep enough that if the top 20 SP go in the first 20 picks I'm really happy cause I just landed 3 first round hitters. If that means Morrow or Sanchez is your ace then so be it. You can't completely ignore what other owners are doing but you can't let it drive you.
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Re: Reasons to take a Pitcher in the first few Rounds?

Postby J35J » Fri Mar 22, 2013 9:37 am

Ender wrote:The key to pitching is to understand that most people put the replacement level at the wrong point. If you try to come up with a replacement level at most positions you look at the bottom few players that will be drafted at the position and base it off of that. The bottom few pitchers are garbage and aren't worth keeping for a full season in reality though. You can mix and match pitchers off of the FA list in almost every league. In a roto league with a 1400 IP limit you need to have 4 safe pitchers drafted and then some upside guys. In a 12 team league that makes replacement level something like the 48th to 60th pitcher off of the board.

Using the MDP from this site that says in a 12 team league the replacement level pitcher is somewhere between Wade Miley and Matt Harrison. Drafting SP is like drafting C in a 1 C league, it is just insanely deep for what you actually need that you just don't have to reach on it. In a 10 team league replacement level is Jarrod Parker or Lance Lynn etc. You need to go out to 14+ teams to really be worried at all about getting pitching early. Pitching is also more about depth than studs for this same kind of reason, so much of the top end pitchers value is that they go over 200 innings but with an innings cap that loses a lot of value.

That doesn't even take into account that almost every SP gets you a 0 in one category and they are as a group bigger health risks for major injury than hitters. The game is just built such that it devalues SP.

My advice is always the following, if you are really stressed about getting good SP then take two of them between the 3rd and 6th round, you'll still get two really good, really safe pitchers and not lose the offense doing it. I'm not drafting a SP unless Kershaw or Verlander fall to late 2nd round. I'm not drafting Strasburg unless he falls to late 3rd or 4th round. I'll just take Hamels in the 4th and be happy if I want to start with pitching early.


I agree with most of this, Kershaw and Verlander I'll start to consider in the middle/late second round, Strasburg in the 3rd and a handful of guys I'd be just fine with as my ace in the 4th-5th. Keep in mind, I'll start to "consider" these guys at those times, they've still got to be best available at those times. I'm not really quite as concerned about injuries with the top aces though.
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Re: Reasons to take a Pitcher in the first few Rounds?

Postby MashinSpuds » Fri Mar 22, 2013 12:08 pm

jefferey13 wrote:Heres the issue, if everyone in your league overvalues pitchers and is snapping up, they are no longer overvalued, you are under valuing them. Value is only what the market says the value is. So you have to draft accordingly. I mean if the top 20 pitchers go in the first 20 picks and you don't take someone until the 4-5th, and then again in round 8-9 round, you're looking at Morrow/Sanchez being your aces and now you basically are going to lose in W/K/ERA/WHIP.

Unless the scoring dictates that you must grab many pitchers in order to succeed in the categories provided, one has to look past what other people value and see where the true value lies. For example, there are closer runs all the time, but if someone starts one in the 2nd round do you have to go along with it? Do you need to pick a closer in the first round to beat the others to the punch? No, because you know there are other players who will get similar stats and may rise to the occasion. Don't wait too long, but don't feel like you have to join in if you know you have options.

As Ender posted (and others as well), there is serious depth at pitcher. If you go with SP later you may not get a rock solid guy in Kershaw, Verlander, Price, etc but you can get most of the wins, strikeouts and ratios if you choose your later pitchers wisely. Didn't get Hamels? See if Samardzija will get the strikeouts you need. Not going to get the Wins from CC? Hudson will get those wins on the Braves. It's not 'end all/be all' if you don't draft an ace, it's 'end all/be all' if you ignore similarities in statistics and don't pounce on SP at the right time.
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Re: Reasons to take a Pitcher in the first few Rounds?

Postby umphrey » Sun Mar 24, 2013 12:48 am

If you wait on pitching you can come pretty close to making it up if you devote more roster space to it. If you just draft a bunch of guys out of Cobb, Minor, Estrada, Fiers, Lynn, Teheran, Parker, Straily, Cashner, Ryu, Bauer, Peralta you'll probably get 1-2 to pitch pretty well. I'm all in on Beachy if you have any DL space or roster room. He's a sure thing, free #2 for 2nd half run, just have to wait it out a bit. It's one strategy, not for everyone and all leagues.
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