Reasons to take a Pitcher in the first few Rounds? - Fantasy Baseball Cafe 2014 Fantasy Baseball Cafe
100% Deposit Bonus for Cafe Members!

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Reasons to take a Pitcher in the first few Rounds?

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

Reasons to take a Pitcher in the first few Rounds?

Postby slcdcricket » Thu Mar 21, 2013 5:50 pm

Of the elite pitchers (Kershaw, Strasburg, Verlander, Price, Hernandez) and even some of the subelite, is there any circumstance where you would take them in the first couple of rounds?

In other words, how far would they have to fall for you to grab them? When I look at Yahoo's rankings, there is a big hole between in the 2nd-3rd rounds where I want barely anybody, but I can't remember the last time I took a pitcher before round 5.
slcdcricket
College Coach
College Coach


Posts: 143
Joined: 2 Apr 2009
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Reasons to take a Pitcher in the first few Rounds?

Postby BJSFAN123 » Thu Mar 21, 2013 6:49 pm

I don't plan on taking a pitcher until at least the 3rd round.

I wouldn't mind Hamels being my first pitcher taken in the 3rd-4th round.

I'm staying away from Felix even if he drops.
BJSFAN123
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar

Posts: 2352
Joined: 6 May 2007
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Reasons to take a Pitcher in the first few Rounds?

Postby MashinSpuds » Thu Mar 21, 2013 7:32 pm

I suppose that if you're in a point-heavy league that favors pitchers, or a roto league with mainly pitching stats, then that would be a reason to go with an ace pitcher early. Otherwise, one can always find a guy in the 4th-5th rounds that would anchor a staff nicely.
MashinSpuds
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
Cafe WriterCafe RankerEagle EyeCafecaster
Posts: 2563
(Past Year: 109)
Joined: 25 Jul 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Boston

Re: Reasons to take a Pitcher in the first few Rounds?

Postby GiantsFan14 » Thu Mar 21, 2013 7:39 pm

If they're the best player on the board by a decent margin. I'd say that happens for Kershaw at around 20 overall.
Image
25
@FBC_GiantsFan14 on Twitter
GiantsFan14
Baseball Scribe
Baseball Scribe

User avatar
EditorCafeholicResponse TeamCafe WriterGraphics ExpertMock(ing) DrafterWeb SupporterPick 3 Weekly Winner
Posts: 14141
(Past Year: 427)
Joined: 12 Mar 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: BUSTER HATH ARRIVED

Re: Reasons to take a Pitcher in the first few Rounds?

Postby Element » Thu Mar 21, 2013 7:56 pm

GiantsFan14 wrote:If they're the best player on the board by a decent margin. I'd say that happens for Kershaw at around 20 overall.


;-D
Image
Element
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
Cafe RankerMock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 4909
(Past Year: 719)
Joined: 25 Feb 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Reasons to take a Pitcher in the first few Rounds?

Postby OBPlover » Thu Mar 21, 2013 9:12 pm

In an AL Only draft, pitching is scarce enough to have 1st round value.

on a side note...

I once did a mixed league mock draft and got 1st overall (out of 12), took Braun and then my next 2 picks were Kershaw and Verlander. But I wouldn't count on it.
OBPlover
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor


Posts: 628
(Past Year: 118)
Joined: 1 Apr 2012
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Reasons to take a Pitcher in the first few Rounds?

Postby rookies and cream » Thu Mar 21, 2013 10:55 pm

GiantsFan14 wrote:If they're the best player on the board by a decent margin. I'd say that happens for Kershaw at around 20 overall.


I'm curious about the bottom group of hitters you would take before those top tier pitchers (Kershaw, Verlander, and Strasburg).

According to MDP, these players would be:
Josh Hamilton
Buster Posey
Jose Bautista
Adrian Beltre
Justin Upton
Evan Longoria
David Wright
Bryce Harper
Dustin Pedroia
Jose Reyes

I'm assuming you would take Hamilton who represents the 13th hitter off the board. That means you would take 7 more. Personally, I would start considering those pitchers before Hamilton (at 13 overall), but I think you could make a good argument for Hamilton, Bautista, and Pedroia before them.
Image
rookies and cream
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerGraphics ExpertMock(ing) DrafterWeb Supporter
Posts: 6490
(Past Year: 45)
Joined: 4 Apr 2007
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Long Island, NY

Re: Reasons to take a Pitcher in the first few Rounds?

Postby Fenris-77 » Thu Mar 21, 2013 11:39 pm

Element wrote:
GiantsFan14 wrote:If they're the best player on the board by a decent margin. I'd say that happens for Kershaw at around 20 overall.


;-D

;-D ;-D
Fenris-77
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 1688
(Past Year: 51)
Joined: 10 Jul 2008
Home Cafe: Basketball
Location: SAGNOF

Re: Reasons to take a Pitcher in the first few Rounds?

Postby jefferey13 » Fri Mar 22, 2013 12:10 am

Heres the issue, if everyone in your league overvalues pitchers and is snapping up, they are no longer overvalued, you are under valuing them. Value is only what the market says the value is. So you have to draft accordingly. I mean if the top 20 pitchers go in the first 20 picks and you don't take someone until the 4-5th, and then again in round 8-9 round, you're looking at Morrow/Sanchez being your aces and now you basically are going to lose in W/K/ERA/WHIP.
Image
jefferey13
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor

User avatar

Posts: 778
Joined: 13 Mar 2012
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Reasons to take a Pitcher in the first few Rounds?

Postby Ender » Fri Mar 22, 2013 2:25 am

The key to pitching is to understand that most people put the replacement level at the wrong point. If you try to come up with a replacement level at most positions you look at the bottom few players that will be drafted at the position and base it off of that. The bottom few pitchers are garbage and aren't worth keeping for a full season in reality though. You can mix and match pitchers off of the FA list in almost every league. In a roto league with a 1400 IP limit you need to have 4 safe pitchers drafted and then some upside guys. In a 12 team league that makes replacement level something like the 48th to 60th pitcher off of the board.

Using the MDP from this site that says in a 12 team league the replacement level pitcher is somewhere between Wade Miley and Matt Harrison. Drafting SP is like drafting C in a 1 C league, it is just insanely deep for what you actually need that you just don't have to reach on it. In a 10 team league replacement level is Jarrod Parker or Lance Lynn etc. You need to go out to 14+ teams to really be worried at all about getting pitching early. Pitching is also more about depth than studs for this same kind of reason, so much of the top end pitchers value is that they go over 200 innings but with an innings cap that loses a lot of value.

That doesn't even take into account that almost every SP gets you a 0 in one category and they are as a group bigger health risks for major injury than hitters. The game is just built such that it devalues SP.

My advice is always the following, if you are really stressed about getting good SP then take two of them between the 3rd and 6th round, you'll still get two really good, really safe pitchers and not lose the offense doing it. I'm not drafting a SP unless Kershaw or Verlander fall to late 2nd round. I'm not drafting Strasburg unless he falls to late 3rd or 4th round. I'll just take Hamels in the 4th and be happy if I want to start with pitching early.
Ender
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

CafeholicFantasy Expert
Posts: 7733
Joined: 30 Apr 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Next

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: zepfan and 13 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Today's Games
Tuesday, Oct. 21
(All times are EST, weather icons show forecast for game time)

San Francisco at Kansas City
(8:07 pm)

  • Fantasy Baseball
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact