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Carpenter and Roberts - Sleepers at 2B ??

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Carpenter and Roberts - Sleepers at 2B ??

Postby mm92280 » Sun Mar 17, 2013 1:50 pm

Looking at sleepers at 2nd base, how many of you guys are waiting a bit and taking a chance of Matt Carpenter or Brian Roberts, even as backups on your team (or trade bait for later)? Matt Carpenter seems to be going between 230th and 260th in drafts right now and Briant Roberts looks to get going anywhere from 240th to completely undrafted (in shallower leagues, I am sure). By comparison, a completely unspectacular Marco Scutaro is going between 165th and 200 overall.

In 296 at bats last year, Carpenter hit .294 with 6 HR 46 RBI 44 R and 1 SB. He also had 22 doubles, 5 triples, .365 OBP and a .828 OPS. I know it is always dangerous to take a part-time player and to attempt to gauge what their stats would be in a full-time role but if he manages to get 500 at bats and 2B eligibility, he is going to look pretty good at his current draft position and be at least Neil Walker's equal, right (which would mean he would be the 10th-13th best 2B)?

Roberts is a tougher case. He is 35, coming off scary injuries (concussion, groin/hip injury) and hasn't topped 250 at bats since 2009. However, the reports coming out of Baltimore appear positive and it seems he has had a very good offseason and hasn't been limited in any regard. I know its 35 and 4 years is an eternity in MLB but he was one of the best 2B in the game before the problems set in. If he come somehow play even 110 to 120 games, then he has to be considered a bargain at his current ADP. By comparison, Chase Utley is also in his mid-30s (34) and hasn't played a full season since 2009 (though he has certainly played more in '10, '11 and '12 than Roberts) and his knee issues could be chronic. Despite this, he is going anywhere between 125th and 155th overall in drafts. Now, I am not saying that Roberts will outperform Utley or even play in as many games (I would guess both would be pretty unlikely) but, given their relative ADPs and weakness at the position, Roberts could be a relative bargain at his current ADP if he doesn't have any recurrence of the concussion issues, right? I typically shy away from older players with injury problems but I'm not sure that Roberts' issues are chronic, it just appears they took a long time to subside.

So, how do you guys value Carpenter and/or Roberts? Are you looking at them as potentially capable backups later on in your drafts?
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Re: Carpenter and Roberts - Sleepers at 2B ??

Postby jackie hayes » Sun Mar 17, 2013 2:10 pm

I like Carpenter quite a bit, as long as you can afford to wait on the 2B eligibility. He's a playing time risk, as well, which means the eligibility may take a little while longer. With Roberts, the age worries me as much as the injuries. Utley's not a great comp, imo -- he's at least been effective in his stints the last couple years, and for an aging hitter, I'd much rather have the power threat (career hr/fb of 12%, compared to Roberts's 5%). I'm steering clear of Roberts -- I guess I would take him as a $1 bench flier in AL-only leagues, but I doubt he comes that cheap.
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Re: Carpenter and Roberts - Sleepers at 2B ??

Postby MashinSpuds » Sun Mar 17, 2013 2:54 pm

I don't see a whole lot of point to picking up Roberts outside of AL-only leagues. His only real draws in the past were speed and average. At 35 and with a name not including 'Pierre' in it, I don't see the speed coming back beyond 10-15 bases. Batting average is probably around .270 at best, which in some circles is a passable MI but hardly worth starting in mixed leagues. I think Roberts is more of an option than a sleeper.

I like Matt Carpenter as a kind of Daniel Murphy clone, but unlike Murphy one has to wonder what kind of time he'll get. If he hits well they'll have to keep him in the lineup, but as a late pick up he's worth a gamble if all better options have been missed.
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Re: Carpenter and Roberts - Sleepers at 2B ??

Postby Ender » Sun Mar 17, 2013 3:09 pm

I like taking a risk on Brian Roberts, I don't really see the point in Matt Carpenter.

With Brian Roberts it is injured or not injured, he'll have value as long as that stays non Injured. If he stays healthy for even a month it gives a chance for young guys to reach the majors and you either pick those guys up or others drop someone like Scutaro to make room for the young guys.

Matt Carpenter's upside is sort of a poor man's Scutaro and I'm usually hoping for better than Scutaro in the first place. Carpenter is a fallback option, not a target for me.

If I'm drafting either of these guys it is because I purposely left MI for one of my last pick because it is really easy to find upside in MI off the FA list though, so I don't consider either of them long term plays.
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Re: Carpenter and Roberts - Sleepers at 2B ??

Postby bayside » Sun Mar 17, 2013 3:16 pm

I love Carpenter as bench guy. I usually only carry 1 bench bat and his position eligibility makes him pretty attractive. If it turns out that he only plays 2-3 times per week then you can just cut him and not feel attached at all since hes going in the very last rounds.

Roberts just seems to not be worth the headache. Ya he could return decent value, but no way anyone in their right mind drafts him as a starter. And its not like you can flip him if he ealthy for a couple months and gets off to a hot start. He would still carry zero trade value precisely because of his injury history.
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Re: Carpenter and Roberts - Sleepers at 2B ??

Postby Ender » Sun Mar 17, 2013 4:08 pm

He definitely is a short term play but I'll gladly take a month of Roberts over a month of Carpenter if you are looking at it that way.
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Re: Carpenter and Roberts - Sleepers at 2B ??

Postby chargerss24 » Sun Mar 17, 2013 11:57 pm

Ender wrote:He definitely is a short term play but I'll gladly take a month of Roberts over a month of Carpenter if you are looking at it that way.


If you're looking at it that way, then a month is about all you're going to get out of Roberts.
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Re: Carpenter and Roberts - Sleepers at 2B ??

Postby Ender » Mon Mar 18, 2013 6:14 am

chargerss24 wrote:
Ender wrote:He definitely is a short term play but I'll gladly take a month of Roberts over a month of Carpenter if you are looking at it that way.


If you're looking at it that way, then a month is about all you're going to get out of Roberts.


And that is fine. If I have Carpenter as my MI for a full season I've probably already lost my league. I'll take my month or two months of above replacement from Roberts and then take whatever gem shows up on the FA list for the rest of the season. I'm not sure what people are thinking Carpenter is going to be? He is David Murphy for an upside, 10ish HR and 4 SB if he plays every day with a solid but not elite AVG. I'm just not seeing what all the excitement is about.
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Re: Carpenter and Roberts - Sleepers at 2B ??

Postby The Mighty Men » Mon Mar 18, 2013 9:53 pm

chargerss24 wrote:
Ender wrote:He definitely is a short term play but I'll gladly take a month of Roberts over a month of Carpenter if you are looking at it that way.


If you're looking at it that way, then a month is about all you're going to get out of Roberts.


Of course, because we all know that once a player is hurt it is impossible to ever be healthy again. 100% guaranteed he will be hurt within 30 days. In fact, he might be dead by day 29.
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Re: Carpenter and Roberts - Sleepers at 2B ??

Postby kaiser » Tue Mar 19, 2013 7:41 am

Ender wrote:
With Brian Roberts it is injured or not injured, he'll have value as long as that stays non Injured. If he stays healthy for even a month it gives a chance for young guys to reach the majors and you either pick those guys up or others drop someone like Scutaro to make room for the young guys.

If I'm drafting either of these guys it is because I purposely left MI for one of my last pick because it is really easy to find upside in MI off the FA list though, so I don't consider either of them long term plays.


I agree with this. Roberts has the greater value of the two, as long as you are only taking him as an end-rounds MI in deep leagues.

chargerss24 wrote:If you're looking at it that way, then a month is about all you're going to get out of Roberts.


This is the kind of thinking that I rely on to get value picks at the end of drafts.
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