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The first round only 4 deep in 2013

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The first round only 4 deep in 2013

Postby fantasyfiend » Thu Mar 14, 2013 2:08 am

I'd hate to have a draft position after the first four picks this season, ESPECIALLY the #5 draft position (meaning an extra long wait for another pick in the 2nd round). For those in snake draft formats, the first round is really only 4 deep.

Miggy
Cano
Trout
Braun

These are the only 4 players this season that combine a clean bill of health, with youth, durability, and elite-statistical track record.

After the above 4 names, things get murky quick:

Albert Pujols:
Banged up, has been playing injured for years now. When will the age catch up? Has it already? Numbers on a steady decline for 3 years running. A fall off the cliff isn't completely out of the question.

Matt Kemp:
major shoulder surgery & hamstring issues. Poor performance down the stretch, legs good enough to run? shoulder good enough for power? that hasn't been demonstrated yet.

Joey Votto:
Power issues after returning from torn meniscus last season (no extra base hits in last 25 games and in playoffs last season after return). Also a guy who seems prone to missing games/getting banged up. 2010 & 2011 being the exception.

Carlos Gonzalez:
Wears down at the end of every season. Generally prone to injury, and prone to long stretches of missing games.

Andrew McCutchen:
Very high BABIP last year, relatively poor lineup, lots of "lucky" HRs that barely made it over the wall, low SB success rate.

Prince Fielder:
May not have the raw upside as some of the others but is the only one in this group without question marks.

In snake drafts, if you don't have a top 4 draft position, you have to choose between one of these 6, and depending on who you ask, you might get 6 different answers as to which one is better. Also, if you have the #5 pick, you have to choose between one of these 6 above, and wait an extra long time before you get a 2nd round pick. A real disadvantage IMO.

This year, more than any other, I clearly see the "limitations" to the snake draft format. And now I know why the auction draft format is becoming increasingly more popular.
Last edited by fantasyfiend on Thu Mar 14, 2013 7:14 am, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: The first round only 4 deep in 2013

Postby Izenhart » Thu Mar 14, 2013 6:20 am

I agree and when you look further past round one and deep into round two, sometimes the guy with Braun winds up with someone who has a shot to produce as good or better than anyone in the second half of round 1. Then he gets to pick again. So I see as having a top 4 pick to be a really big advantage this year. Some people want to limit the discussion to 3, but I think Cano really gives you an anchor at an ultra thin position. (I got Cano, Upton, AGone once, #5 got Pujols, Hamilton, Heyward - similar numbers from the three but I have 2B covered and 1B open.)
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Re: The first round only 4 deep in 2013

Postby fantasyfiend » Thu Mar 14, 2013 7:12 am

Izenhart wrote:I agree and when you look further past round one and deep into round two, sometimes the guy with Braun winds up with someone who has a shot to produce as good or better than anyone in the second half of round 1. Then he gets to pick again. So I see as having a top 4 pick to be a really big advantage this year. Some people want to limit the discussion to 3, but I think Cano really gives you an anchor at an ultra thin position. (I got Cano, Upton, AGone once, #5 got Pujols, Hamilton, Heyward - similar numbers from the three but I have 2B covered and 1B open.)


Good point. I also caught my list didn't include Pujols, so I added that. Thanks.
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Re: The first round only 4 deep in 2013

Postby Ender » Thu Mar 14, 2013 7:32 am

I don't really put Cargo or McCutchen in that 2nd group either. I'm not a big fan of Cano in the top 4 given what has happened to that lineup. I picked 14 in the Pond Scum league and I didn't really feel like the guys I ended up picking were much better than the 25th guy picked so it is a really cruddy place to draft this year.
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Re: The first round only 4 deep in 2013

Postby fantasyfiend » Thu Mar 14, 2013 7:47 am

Ender wrote:I don't really put Cargo or McCutchen in that 2nd group either. I'm not a big fan of Cano in the top 4 given what has happened to that lineup. I picked 14 in the Pond Scum league and I didn't really feel like the guys I ended up picking were much better than the 25th guy picked so it is a really cruddy place to draft this year.


Suzuki, Gardner, Jeter, Rivera, Hafner, Youkilis lineup isn't world beating, but it could be a lot worse. The Yankees should be league average offensively.

Teixeira & Granderson should be back in full by June, with a good 100+ games left on the schedule.

A 2B that can hit .320, and slug over .550 in an average lineup, who never misses games, belongs in that top 4 tier.
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Re: The first round only 4 deep in 2013

Postby Ender » Thu Mar 14, 2013 9:16 am

The difference between Braun and MCab is $5. The difference between MCab and Cano is another $7. The difference between Cano and Fielder is like $3. He really does not belong in the same tier as MCab and Braun. He didn't get 100 RBI last year with an overproducing Jeter ahead of him. He is running less and less and he is hitting the ball on the ground more and more so I don't believe he will repeat the HR totals. So yeah a .315 AVG, 30 HR, 105 R, 95 RBI, 3 SB guy is valuable at 2B, but he is nowhere near what Braun is. Cano goes #4 because he is safe, not because he is one of the 4 best players in the fantasy game. To put that another way, if there weren't so many questions around Kemp, Pujols and Votto you would likely see Cano going #7 or #8, he is kind of getting #4 by default since he is safe.

Pedroia's years in 2008 and 2011 were better for fantasy than any year Cano has had so I'm not even all that confident Cano will be the best 2B in baseball this year. I'd much rather have Pedrioa at $25 than Cano at $35 that is for sure.
Last edited by Ender on Thu Mar 14, 2013 10:29 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The first round only 4 deep in 2013

Postby Pogotheostrich » Thu Mar 14, 2013 9:51 am

I have solidly in the #4 spot but I can't imagine anyone taking him over the top 3. He's a tier below those guys IMO.
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Re: The first round only 4 deep in 2013

Postby fantasyfiend » Thu Mar 14, 2013 10:31 am

Ender wrote:The difference between Braun and MCab is $5. The difference between MCab and Cano is another $7. The difference between Cano and Fielder is like $3. He really does not belong in the same tier as MCab and Braun. He didn't get 100 RBI last year with an overproducing Jeter ahead of him. He is running less and less and he is hitting the ball on the ground more and more so I don't believe he will repeat the HR totals. So yeah a .315 AVG, 30 HR, 105 R, 95 RBI, 3 SB guy is valuable at 2B, but he is nowhere near what Braun is. Cano goes #4 because he is safe, not because he is one of the 4 best players in the fantasy game.

Pedroia's years in 2008 and 2011 were better for fantasy than any year Cano has had so I'm not even all that confident Cano will be the best 2B in baseball this year. I'd much rather have Pedrioa at $25 than Cano at $35 that is for sure.


I have Cano as a $30 value in my heavily edited ZiPS projections.

He has almost twice the projected value of the next best guy at his position (I have Pedroia, Phillips, & Kinsler at ~$17).

He's also "green" on my cheat sheet (Will Carrol's team health traffic light system), where the others are yellow & red.

I have Trout, Cabrera, & Braun in the ~$40 range. They are definitely in a tier above. But I believe given Cano's combination of health, skills, and position scarcity he's a cut above the 6 names I listed in the OP.

I think our disagreement is more of a terminology/semantics issue. When I say there are only 4 first rounders in 2013, I am talking about the types of players that typically pass as first rounders: healthy, young, top of the age curve, elite track record guys. There are only 4 guys who have this combination in 2013 (Cano, Braun, Miggy, & Trout). Not that they are all of equal value.
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Re: The first round only 4 deep in 2013

Postby Ender » Thu Mar 14, 2013 10:58 am

Well if that is how you are talking then I would add Fielder who is all of those things and any league that lets Fielder drop to the 2nd round has completely failed at fantasy baseball or are insanely shallow.
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Re: The first round only 4 deep in 2013

Postby fantasyfiend » Thu Mar 14, 2013 11:24 am

Ender wrote:Well if that is how you are talking then I would add Fielder who is all of those things and any league that lets Fielder drop to the 2nd round has completely failed at fantasy baseball or are insanely shallow.


I agree with Fielder. That's why I have him ranked 5th overall this year. Cano & Fielder have a similar forecast, but Cano occupies a position where it's virtually impossible to find a .300/30/100 guy, and he is far more healthier to boot.
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