It appears Halladay has lost velocity for 3 consecutive years, with last year the most steep drop (90.6 to 87.0). If he doesn't regain his speed, he would toss as hard as Greg Maddux in the few seasons before he retired (2007/2008, going around 86 mph).
Even Maddux, the most prototypical pitcher, with all the control, mechanics, and efficiency, posted an era of 4.14 and 4.22. Not bad. If Halladay doesn't regain form, I suppose Maddux in his final years would be his "ceiling". Is this fair?
Few more questions: What round would you draft Halladay? --Yahoo has him going in the 6th round --I have him around the 17th round, near Tim Hudson Non-fantasy related Do you think the workload has contributed to Hallday's velocity decline?
Not sure about round, but I wouldn't assume him to be anything more than my third best SP. Don't reach for him, but if you're only counting on a mid level SP, you could get a bonus.
I'd be ok taking him in the 9th or 10th round I guess. There's some bounce-back upside there for sure, but pitching is too deep for me to think about him before then.
Oof, Halladay in the 17th round with Tim Hudson? That's a pretty severe drop there. I'd wait on Halladay because pitching is deep, but I think he'll be a solid SP2 if you think he might get back up to 89-90 mph. Even if he's losing some steam, I think one bad, creaky body year shouldn't utterly tank your expectations. He's getting older, but he's not getting less crafty.
Fenris-77 wrote:I'd be ok taking him in the 9th or 10th round I guess. There's some bounce-back upside there for sure, but pitching is too deep for me to think about him before then.
I might go 8/9, but I agree that pitching is too deep to reach for him. Also, I read that Doc's velocity has been down this spring and he indicated he may be dealing with a dead arm period, so there is that to consider as well as the fact that he'll turn 36 this season.
I like him as a #3 SP, but too much risk/reward for me to want him any higher on my staff.
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by msing » Mon Mar 11, 2013 2:09 pm 
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