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2013 darft Analysis!

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2013 darft Analysis!

Postby TheRock » Sun Mar 10, 2013 7:39 pm

Re-ordered a bit this year:

1. Describe your overall draft strategy?

2. Who are the best pick(s) that you made?

3. The worst pick(s) that you made?

4. Who do you think was the steal of the draft?

5. Who do you think was the reach(s) of the draft?

6. Who do you think will finish in the top 3?

7. Who do you think will finish in the bottom 3?

8. If you could swap teams with anyone else, whose would you take?
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Re: 2013 darft Analysis!

Postby cordscords » Sun Mar 10, 2013 10:38 pm

1. Describe your overall draft strategy?

I usually play 12 teams without expanded rosters, so I would factor in position scarcity to a certain extent. With this being a 14 teamer with expanded rosters, it made it easier for me to go best player available for the most part. I normally draft hitter heavy teams, and was surprised to wind up with 4 SP within my first 8 picks. For the most part I feel like I got great value throughout the draft.

2. Who are the best pick(s) that you made?

Among hitters- I think landing Jeter in the 11th was a steal. I know he's getting older and coming off an injury, but he finished as the #51 ranked player last season.

Among pitchers- Getting Halladay in the 7th was a nice coup. A really good bet to bounce back.

3. The worst pick(s) that you made?

In terms of reaching, I grabbed Freeman earlier than his ADP because I feared a tier dropoff at 1B. Didn't think he or Big Papi would make it back to me. Turns out at least Ortiz would have.

I like Sal Perez, but I think I'm guilty of buying into the hype too much. Probably could have waited on a catcher like Lucroy.

Werth and Kubel make for a solid #4/#5 OF IMO, but I probably should have started taking some closers at that point. I'm incredibly anti taking RP before it's necessary to start making a dent in saves, but even I didn't intend for my relief pitching core to be this weak.

4. Who do you think was the steal of the draft?

Marco Estrada with the last pick in the 16th.

5. Who do you think was the reach(s) of the draft?

Posey at #19, Headley at #37

6. Who do you think will finish in the top 3?

Myself, Redbullvodka, Masterx

7. Who do you think will finish in the bottom 3?

Shockers, Third Day, SeanCasey

8. If you could swap teams with anyone else, whose would you take?

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Re: 2013 darft Analysis!

Postby oscar15 » Mon Mar 11, 2013 10:16 am

1. Describe your overall draft strategy? Hitters - Take the best available early; fill in holes in the middle rounds; look for high risk, high reward players late. Pitching - One stud early; fill in with high skill guys when hitters available did not entice me. Low IP in league limits my desire to take too many high end SPs.

2. Who are the best pick(s) that you made? I like Martin Prado in the 7th. He is a solid contributor in multiple cats and his multi position eligibility gave me valuable flexibility in the middle rounds.

3. The worst pick(s) that you made? There were better pitcher options available when I took Anabel Sanchez in the 13th.

4. Who do you think was the steal of the draft? IF, and that is a big IF, Jonny Gomes holds onto a starting gig in Boston, grabbing him in round 22 could be huge for cords. A lot of fly ball outs will clear the wall and his average might benefit from balls bouncing of the Green Monster that normally would be outs.

5. Who do you think was the reach(s) of the draft? You always have to reach in this league if you really want a player. Drafting at the extreme ends of the draft only magnifies that need. I'm not a big fan of taking young players with one good year under their belt. For that reason, I think Josh Rutledge, in the 8th is a bit early. I'm probably alone in that belief.

6. Who do you think will finish in the top 3? RBV, Beerdog, and Saltydog

7. Who do you think will finish in the bottom 3? Oscar's Vandals, Shockers, Rock (usually, you can look at the draft and pick out two or three weak teams. I do not believe that is the case this year)

8. If you could swap teams with anyone else, whose would you take? Saltydog drafted a lot of players I like to watch and he assembled a strong team.
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Re: 2013 darft Analysis!

Postby thomasps3 » Mon Mar 11, 2013 11:10 am

1. Describe your overall draft strategy? Overall draft startegy was to go straight off my Top 100 rankings until that was exhausted. As it was, that allowed me to have my first 8 selections pretty much mapped out. However, there were a few players I really wanted that were picked right before me by SaltyDog, who was a welcome addition to our league.

2. Who are the best pick(s) that you made? The best pick I feel I made was Yu Darvish in Round 5. I expect huge K numbers and improved ratios in his age 27 season.

3. The worst pick(s) that you made? Ben Zobrist offers me a boatload of MI flexibility that dictated I choose him where I did, although he was one guy I wish Salty had picked before me!

4. Who do you think was the steal of the draft? Kyle Seager in the 13th round. With the fences coming in at Safeco, he could provide 25 HRs and 10-15 SBs at a premium 2b position. That was a great pick in my estimation.

5. Who do you think was the reach(s) of the draft? I think Curtis Granderson if he was healthy was appropriately drafted in Round 3, but given his injury, and how much time he is going to miss, I think he would've been there much later, perhaps as late as Round 5-6

6. Who do you think will finish in the top 3?
I think Saltydog, RBV, and myself wil finish Top 3.
7. Who do you think will finish in the bottom 3?
I think Seancaset21, Amazing Oopah, and cordscords. No offense guys!

8. If you could swap teams with anyone else, whose would you take? I would take Saltydog's team.....

Great draft everyone, let's have a great season!
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Re: 2013 darft Analysis!

Postby TheRock » Mon Mar 11, 2013 1:01 pm

Check me out not following my own format. Which should be considered more a guideline anyway. ;-)

In the old days I used to do a write-up giving some thoughts on each team. Maybe I'm feeling nostalgic. This is of course all based on my projections, which are pretty conservative IMO. You want to see projected totals and standing using your projections? You figure it out. Maybe someone can post what Razzball said. I am considering only what I could determine to be your starting lineup since everyone's bench is different.

Oop:
Oop put together a pretty nice team from the leadoff spot. He should actually do pretty well in hitting, I have him second there. And if Oop was to do well anywhere, I'm sure he would tell you that was his primary concern. Plenty of power in Braun, Rizzo, Harper, Viciedo and Alvarez. Several players chip in on speed, led by Gomez. Solid offense across the board, I show all 9's through 12's. Pitching projects a little low now, but anything can happen it's pitching right? If Lester returns to form that will help. Oop should be one of the leaders in K's, but a little low in ratios and saves, with only one bonafide closer on board.

Cords:
Not a bad looking squad cordscords has assembled here. Definitely in the top half in offense, doing particularly well in two odd categories to see together - homeruns and runs scored. Jose Veras is the closest thing to a closer cords came up with, but guess where else I see him struggling? Batting average. Sure Trout is great, I've got Jeter and Sal hitting .295, but an awful lot of .240's through .260's. Other than the lack of saves, I like the pitching. I see cords leading in wins, and doing very well in K's and WHIP.

Nikki:
Nikki's motley crew is interesting. Definitely some promise, but some holes as well. Maybe Nikki's an eternal optimist, but if Hanley, AGon, Papi, Crawdaddy, Uggla, Howard, and McCann all indeed bounceback we could be in trouble. Seems unlikely, but I'm sure at least some will make some solid contributions. But for now very hard to predict what we'll see from this squad. Best guess offensively - great power, light in steals, hurting in BA. Pitching looks average at least. I'm showing ERA a little high, but honestly my projections don't show a huge improvement from Lincecum. Hard to rest easy when your closers are Marmol, Grilli and Balfour who is already hurt, but to walk out of the draft with 3 isn't a bad situation.

RBV:
RBV put together another solid, balanced team which should be a contender. Votto's a bit of an injury risk coming off last year, and I hate Jose Reyes. But if they stay healthy and produce this team should do well in offense. Even with Reyes, I think rbv will be near the bottom in steals, but still doing well offensively overall. Some intriguing players in Davis, Brown, and Myers. Pitching should be ok, but some risk in Peavy and the Oakland youngsters.

Masterx1918:
I’m not sure what to think of the master’s team here. Looking through his picks I don’t see anything I strongly disagree with, but I can’t help seeing a middle of the pack finish. There is some upside in Hosmer and I see a Belt breakout this year. So if Kemp keeps it together master could do well. I see him leading the way in strikeouts, but those ratios are not going to be pretty. Master is now hoping Hanrahan lights it up in Boston and Mo falls down a flight of stairs.

Stoogie(Shockers):
Everyone is thinking it, I’m just saying it – what the #*&$ ?! Stoogs drafted his first starting pitcher in round 16, and added just 2 more in later rounds. Suffice to say his 5 closers should give him a solid lead in saves. You know you still only get 14 points whether you win by 2 or by 50, right stoogie? :-b He is also the leading candidate to finish dead last in wins and K’s. Ratios will depend on how he manages his pitching. Finishing with 500 IP would be frowned upon….
And really, for going almost all offense in the early rounds, this is a pretty un-amazing offense. Batting average is near the top, but rather ho-hum overall. I’ve got him sitting in 8th offensively. Some nice upside picks at the end of the draft may give him a bump.

Rotoquest:
I’m not at all a Yankees fan, but that’s not why I don’t like roto’s team. I’ve met my fantasy antithesis and his name is rotoquest. I don’t think I agree with a single pick he made. Well, maybe a couple. Nothing personal roto, I know you’re a swell guy. In hindsight, Teix was a lousy pick. :-/ Bummer dude. Bourn seems like a bit of a reach to me. I don’t see Utley and Morneau being good values where you picked them, I don’t see many young upside players in the later rounds. My projections say a pretty low finish in offense. But you know what? I like your pitching. Some pretty solid guys, some upside, closers with jobs. I think pitching should keep you ahead of thomas anyway. :-D

Rocko:
Well, it is my team, of course I like it. I didn’t really draw up a detailed plan to go power early then pick up some speed at the end but that’s what happened. Solid batting averages in CarGo, Wright, Butler, Gordon, Konerko, Pierre and Murphy. I have myself first there. Hitting should be solid barring injury. I see an at-least above average finish in pitching. I missed some of my late round gems, but my core is pretty strong. Samardzija could be huge.

TommyBoy:
Well, someone has to finish last. B-) Thomas has filled this role the past 2 years and looks headed to another disappointing finish. Thomas is looking good in steals, but below average everywhere else. Pitching should be a bright spot though. Darvish/Medlen/Latos form a great core, and thomas was able to add some nice closers as well. I’m projecting 5th in pitching. With proper in-season management, I think thomas may crawl out of the cellar this year.

ThirdDay:
Here’s another offense I just don’t like. Well, I like it fine but my projections don’t. I blame Buster. I took him early in a mock and my numbers tanked. I think he’s just not worth an early pick. Power should be average or so, batting average pretty good, I’m seeing last in steals. Let’s see, de Aza with 25 or so, Cespedes, Lawrie, Weeks, Simmons, Murphy in the teens, yep. Last. Low in runs as well. Pitching looks so-so to me. Cain/Cueto/Hellickson form good-not-great lead trio, only Soriano to chip in saves.

Salty:
Thanks again go out to Salty for being willing to step in at the last minute and never miss a beat. Glad to have you with us. But your team sucks. No, just kidding. ;-) But not really. }:-) No seriously, Salty’s got a well-rounded offense that could contend. Adam Dunn by my projections drops you 4 spots in batting average all by himself. So if he make major improvements to something like .225 you would be in good shape there. No true burners, but enough guys that will steal 20-ish that you’ll do well in steals. Pitching, well, you waited kinda late right? Not a fan of the Detwiler and Burnett picks. I see a low finish in ratios without some help.

Beerdog:
Beer’s first 2 picks played in 121 games combined last year. Clearly he does not mind rolling the dice a bit. When healthy, Tulo is an undisputed top 5 player. Several other boppers including Weiters, Aaron Hill, Allen Craig, and Berkman, but not enough to prevent a near-last finish in homers and rbi’s. Rollins, Pagan, Crisp, Ichiro and Maybin should help beer run away with the steals lead. But average will be decidedly average. Pitching could be a problem. After ace Cole Hamels there’s just not much here. Kuroda is consistent but unremarkable, Ryu might be headed to the pen, Smyly is a sleeper, and Brett Anderson is a complete crapshoot. But beer has some nice saves potential in Motte, Romo, and League.

Oscar:
Once the proverbial punching bag of the league, oscar has transformed himself into a dominant fantasy force to be reckoned with. Ok, not really, but he has gotten much better since the early years. Spending his first pick on a pitcher, oscar had to dedicate the next few to hitters. He managed to pick up enough power to do well there. Very light in steals with only the Uptons and Altuve making relevant contributions. But should do very well offensively overall. Pitching looks league average across the board.

Seancasey:
SC took Granderson earlier than I expected, did you get the memo he was hurt? Plenty of steals in Escobar, Kipnis, Cabrera, probably the only team to come near beer. Not much power beyond Bautista, Goldy, Grandy and Willingham. Batting average looking less than stellar as well. Any pitching staff with Verlander and Dickey should be competitive, and I think this one will be. His closers have their question marks as closers do, but overall this should be one of the best staffs in the league.
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Re: 2013 darft Analysis!

Postby TheRock » Mon Mar 11, 2013 2:06 pm

And another in the original format, I think it has some interesting questions.

1. Describe your overall draft strategy?
Create a balanced low-risk team in the early rounds. Don't overpay for any position or category. Fill in later with a blend or undervalued players and upside picks.

2. Who are the best pick(s) that you made?
Konerko is going much later than he should this year. I actually got Samardzija later than his ADP so I was happy there. Kennedy and Pierre also went very late. Martin was a chance worth taking at 260.

3. The worst pick(s) that you made?
I couldn't come up with a single player I wanted that seemed worth taking in round 7 so I took Beltran. Who I expect will get hurt freeing a spot for Tavares. Who I missed.

4. Who do you think was the steal of the draft?
When it happened, I thought Fujikawa. But now that looks like it won't happen for some time, so I think it might be Ellsbury in the middle of round 3.

5. Who do you think was the reach(s) of the draft?
On paper it looks like Granderson, but I'm wondering if that was just a brainfart. He may prove me wrong, but I'm going with Buster in the 2nd.

6. Who do you think will finish in the top 3?
Me, RBV, oscar. You heard me.

7. Who do you think will finish in the bottom 3?
roto, TD, thomas just cuz he always finds a way to. :-)

8. If you could swap teams with anyone else, whose would you take?
I'll be different and say cords. He's got a solid foundation I could work with.
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Re: 2013 darft Analysis!

Postby stoggie10 » Mon Mar 11, 2013 2:31 pm

1. Describe your overall draft strategy?
My strategy this year was pretty obvious. I have always struggled keeping my WHIP and ERA low in this league in years past. I drafted high DOM closers and relievers as to win WHIP and ERA this year. You never know about closers but I should still stay at or near the top in Saves as well. I do not have access to yahoo at work so this will allow me not to worry about getting to the computer to pick up the next closer available. The other part of my strategy was to draft as many Bats as possible to make sure that I have a full starting lineup as much as possible. Draft hitters with the high averages so that it would not affect me as greatly when I continue to plug players in the lineup every day. This should also influence the other offensive categories: runs (mostly), HR, and RBI. If I can post 14 pts in WHIP, ERA, and S then be in the upper half of AVE, SB, R, RBI, and HR, this should be a winning formula. (14 +14+ 14 + 1+ 1+ 10+ 10 +10+ +10 + 7 = 91). Rock mentioned the no minimum innings limit but I had not even thought about it. I intend to plug pitchers in the lineup as much as possible. If my WHIP and ERA start to get affected I will back off. I was too far into my strategy to change my position so this is what I have to do. Next year we should have a minimum innings limit mentioned or established before we draft.

2. Who are the best pick(s) that you made?
Don’t really know that I have any best picks. They are all average to below average.

3. The worst pick(s) that you made?
Regret picking Street when I did. I really wanted Uggla and should have drafted him instead.

4. Who do you think was the steal of the draft?
Ryan Howard or Roy Halladay

5. Who do you think was the reach(s) of the draft?
Gyorko

6. Who do you think will finish in the top 3?
Nikki, Cords, Shock (by my calculations)

7. Who do you think will finish in the bottom 3?
The people who do not manage their teams

8. If you could swap teams with anyone else, whose would you take?
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Re: 2013 darft Analysis!

Postby RedBullVodka » Mon Mar 11, 2013 6:45 pm

1. Describe your overall draft strategy?

Same as usual, I guess. Take the best player available early on as much as possible, and build as balanced a team as I can. I think it has worked out reasonably well. Like any team in a 14-team league with reasonably large rosters, I have some holes / concerns. I'm not overly blessed with speed, but maybe Rajai can do a job as a 5th OF. I've got one less closer than I would have liked, but all the closers seem to have a lot of risk attached, and with Shockers cornering the market, having only two might not be that bad. However, I doubt I will be first to pick up any off waivers with Roto in the league. And 3B is a huge concern - I doubt Youk plays a full season.

In hindsight, I might not have picked 4th as my slot, but I think it does only really matter for the first two rounds, and after that it's not really important. I really like Votto, so hopefully this year he stays fit, and his power comes back.

2. Who are the best pick(s) that you made?

Hopefully Votto. :) Or what if Myers follows Trout (ie gets called up in April!), maybe he can lead me to a repeat. Perhaps Domonic Brown will be a post-hype guy. Who knows?!! I don't think I really made any outstanding steals so to speak - but I think most of my picks were solid in the rounds I took them. I'd love Ike Davis to build on his second half last season - 40HRs @ .260 would be just lovely.

3. The worst pick(s) that you made?

Again, not sure I made any howlers. I think I could probably have taken Lee over Choo, and still got Choo in round 5, which might have been better than Gio. I'd maybe take Niese over Aybar if I could do it again - I was close to making that call, but felt without 2B, MI and 3B at the time I had to fill one of those holes, and I'm hoping one of Aybar or Kendrick should bat second for LAA all season, which should be a great run-producing slot. I'm actually not a big fan of Reyes, but he seemed value in the third, in a good offense and I always undervalue steals. My next player in the queue was Ryan Zimmerman.

4. Who do you think was the steal of the draft?

I really like Niese at 184 - i think he could be a really solid SP this season. I also think Strasburg at 24 was very nice for Masters - considering where Kershaw and Verlander went. With the gloves off this year, I think Stras will be the pithcer to own. I would have taken him at 25, although in a lot of ways I was really pleased not to get the chance.

5. Who do you think was the reach(s) of the draft?

I'm with Rock. I love Posey as a player, but hate taking catchers that early. I'm probably totally wrong, but not a fan of Desmond at 52, and would definitely take Zimmermann ahead of Headley.

6. Who do you think will finish in the top 3?

Most of you voted for me so far, which will probably scupper my chances. I like Saltydog, I always believe in Rock, and I think Shockers controversial strategy may pay off.

7. Who do you think will finish in the bottom 3?

I'm not a fan of Third Day's squad, Thomas (sorry, you're going to have to prove you can!), and maybe Roto on paper, although I think he will be active and manage his way up.

8. If you could swap teams with anyone else, whose would you take?

Cords - just so I could enjoy having Trout on my team again. It was beautiful waking up last year and checking box scores. Every day it seemed he hit a HR or stole a base or two. :-)
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Re: 2013 darft Analysis!

Postby Saltydog » Mon Mar 11, 2013 10:03 pm

1. Describe your overall draft strategy?

My darft strategy, which has been a work in progress for a few years, was finally put to use here. I call it BIO-PEAR. That stands for Balance It Out - Pitchers Easily Are Replaceable.

I've never done anything bigger than a 12 team league so waiting too long on pitching could come back to bite me. The three things I want with my offense is to have at least category strength, position flexibility in case of injury, and always take a positive difference maker in a category if possible.

I wanted high K/9 possibilities, but also providing safety nets in other categories. At worst, there are always interchangeable parts on the WW. Especially with the number of pitchers used in this league. I could be totally off, having never been in a league this deep, but I'm used to a 12 team league with 9 active pitchers. (14 here with 8 active slots)

2. Who are the best pick(s) that you made?

I really liked getting Bonifacio (15th) so late. A potential SB leader to partner with a potential HR leader (Stanton) was comforting. Otherwise, I love all of my picks until about the 10th-11th round. I absolutely adore that I have an UNUSED pick on Ricky Romero.

3. The worst pick(s) that you made?

Adam Dunn. I owned him in 2011. I suffered. He owes me. He owes me big time. He's like that slump buster I had in college. The only problem was I never got out of my slump so I kept going back and back and back... You get the idea.

4. Who do you think was the steal of the draft?

I passed on him, but considering the factors going in his favor, Thomas darfting Clay Buchholz so late has the feeling of providing SP3 value. John Farrell's back to kick his ass, and he's got a lot to prove. I like his chances.

5. Who do you think was the reach(s) of the draft?

Posey in the 2nd. In a 1 catcher league, there's no need to even THINK of a catcher until after round 5. There's much more value at other positions.

6. Who do you think will finish in the top 3?

Rock invited me, so definitely him. Thomas liked a lot of my picks so he's another one. Wait, Rock kinda shredded me a little in the post above so he'll be first alternate. I'll give respect to the returning Champ, Oscar. So he's in there. Wait, he didn't win? He told me that he's owned this league for like 6 years. Oh well. My Top 3?
Thomas, Oop and RBV.

7. Who do you think will finish in the bottom 3?

Sorry, but I have to go with 3rd, Cords and Rotoquest I guess. No hard feelings.

8. If you could swap teams with anyone else, whose would you take?

Shockers. I admire his courage. He knows this.
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Re: 2013 darft Analysis!

Postby GIANTbeerdog » Tue Mar 12, 2013 1:27 pm

1. Describe your overall draft strategy?
Fill my C-CI spots and 1 OF, 1 SP, and 1 closer with my first 10 picks. Stuck pretty close to plan taking a 2nd OF with my 10th pick and CI with 11th pick. I was worried about lack of power throughout the second half of the draft and most likely will need to acquire it.

2. Who are the best pick(s) that you made?
Anderson (185), Kuroda (213), Smyly (320) – a lot of quality pitching available in later rounds

3. The worst pick(s) that you made?

League (208) – wanted a third closer and this is what was left. Not only a stinking Dodger, but will have to pitch lights out with Janson waiting in the wings. Actually would like nothing better than for him to blow many many saves for the Dodgers…

4. Who do you think was the steal of the draft?
I liked Werth at 170, Hart at 201, and Janson at 202 (even though he is a stinking Dodger, he is a good pitcher and would have rather had him than League who I drafted 6 picks later). I’m sure there were many more late round gems…

5. Who do you think was the reach(s) of the draft?
Hamilton at 20 - a round too early for my taste especially considering who was still available
Granderson at 42

6. Who do you think will finish in the top 3?
Who knows, but I'll throw out RBV, Salty, and Oscar (Yes Oscar)

7. Who do you think will finish in the bottom 3?

Who knows, but I’ll throw out Shockers, TD, and Nikki (no offense gents)

8. If you could swap teams with anyone else, whose would you take?
No one really…
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