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Drafting SB's..Helpful or Hurtful?

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Re: Drafting SB's..Helpful or Hurtful?

Postby st3v3k4hn » Wed Mar 13, 2013 7:36 pm

Pogotheostrich wrote:I agree with this. Speed is plentiful this year IMO. Especially in the OF. There is so much speed in the OF this year and not much power that I've been jumping on power first infielders and filling in SB later with OF. Ender mentions some good SB later in the draft. I'll add Aoki, Eaton, Gardner, De Aza, Revere, Pagan, and Ichiro are all going after the 10th round. Not late but 30+ SB in the middle of the draft. I'll pass on Bourne in the 5th or 6th.

I keep hearing this - "you can get speed but not power late" - but it doesn't appear to be true, at least this year. The guys listed above are good speed guys that you can in fact get middle to late. But, looking at the consensus expert projections on FantasyPros.com, I see lots of late power guys too.

Guys going 12th round or later who will hit more than 20 HRs: Hunter Pence, Ryan Howard, J Willingham, Nelson Cruz, Napoli, Middlebrooks, LaRoche, Uggla, Chris Davis, Moustakas, Pedro Alvarez, Kendrys Morales, Todd Frazier, Nick Swisher, Michael Morse, Josh Reddick, Cuddyer, Dunn, Hart, Ludwick, Kubel and Plouffe. These guys aren't complete players (neither are Revere and pagan) but the power is certainly there.

For example, lets compare Chris Davis (Yahoo rank 158) to Coco Crisp (Yahoo rank 160). FantasyPros has Davis projected:
69R 27HR 77RBI 3SB .265AVG ...and they have Coco at:
68R 9HR 48RBI 36SB .266AVG.

Pretty comparable players I would say. Just depends what you need. Is there some flaw with these late power guys that I am not seeing?

*Edit*

I wanted to take this a step further and see what would happen if I compared speed early / power late with power early / speed late. Since everyone seems to love to hate Bourne I used him as the speed guy. Bourne is ranked 82 on Yahoo, Aramis Ramirez is a decent power guy and is ranked just ahead of Bourne.

Bourne is: 90R 6HR 51RBI 44SB 0.272AVG
Ramirez is: 77 24 92 4 0.285

If I take Bourne early and Davis late, I'm at: 159R 33HR 128RBI 47SB .269
With Ramirez and Crisp I'm at: 145R 33HR 140RBI 40SB .275

So Bourne/Davis are ahead in Rs and SBs; Ramirez/Crisp lead in RBI and AVG (tied in HRs).

And I didn't cherry pick this example - it just worked out that way. My point isn't that its better to take speed early, just that there is both speed and power late and you can get by with either strategy...
Last edited by st3v3k4hn on Wed Mar 13, 2013 8:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Drafting SB's..Helpful or Hurtful?

Postby Ender » Wed Mar 13, 2013 8:18 pm

Segura should get you 25-30 SB and can be had late. Just a question of whether or not he gives you anything else.
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Re: Drafting SB's..Helpful or Hurtful?

Postby Pogotheostrich » Wed Mar 13, 2013 10:11 pm

st3v3k4hn wrote:For example, lets compare Chris Davis (Yahoo rank 158) to Coco Crisp (Yahoo rank 160). FantasyPros has Davis projected:
69R 27HR 77RBI 3SB .265AVG ...and they have Coco at:
68R 9HR 48RBI 36SB .266AVG.


Every draft I've seen has Davis going rounds before Crisp. ADP at Fantasypros for each is 132 for Davis and 189 for Crisp.
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Re: Drafting SB's..Helpful or Hurtful?

Postby Ender » Wed Mar 13, 2013 11:17 pm

Pogotheostrich wrote:
st3v3k4hn wrote:For example, lets compare Chris Davis (Yahoo rank 158) to Coco Crisp (Yahoo rank 160). FantasyPros has Davis projected:
69R 27HR 77RBI 3SB .265AVG ...and they have Coco at:
68R 9HR 48RBI 36SB .266AVG.


Every draft I've seen has Davis going rounds before Crisp. ADP at Fantasypros for each is 132 for Davis and 189 for Crisp.


Not only that but that projection has Crisp missing time with injury which is likely, but does not include the stats of the player replacing him. Those just aren't realistic projections.
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Re: Drafting SB's..Helpful or Hurtful?

Postby st3v3k4hn » Thu Mar 14, 2013 1:09 am

Ender wrote:
Pogotheostrich wrote:
st3v3k4hn wrote:For example, lets compare Chris Davis (Yahoo rank 158) to Coco Crisp (Yahoo rank 160). FantasyPros has Davis projected:
69R 27HR 77RBI 3SB .265AVG ...and they have Coco at:
68R 9HR 48RBI 36SB .266AVG.


Every draft I've seen has Davis going rounds before Crisp. ADP at Fantasypros for each is 132 for Davis and 189 for Crisp.


Not only that but that projection has Crisp missing time with injury which is likely, but does not include the stats of the player replacing him. Those just aren't realistic projections.

OK, fine, I was using Yahoo's rankings which may not reflect real ADP very well. How about Aoki? On FantasyPros they are a couple of picks apart right now. His stats are 83 / 10 / 55 / 25 / .287, so:

Ramirez and Aoki total to 160 / 34 / 147 / 29 /.286
Bourne and Davis total to 159 / 33 / 128 / 47 / .269

Still pretty close. And the point still stands that there are as many power guys as speed guys available late. Still don't see the big advantage of going power early / speed late...
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Re: Drafting SB's..Helpful or Hurtful?

Postby Izenhart » Thu Mar 14, 2013 8:27 am

If you go power early it's generally thought you will get better BA and RBI, which will help cushion the late speed guys. If you go speed early, you will be hard pressed to find production and average later. The Aram example shows this. The 20 SB is going to be easier to make up than the RBI and BA late in the draft.
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Re: Drafting SB's..Helpful or Hurtful?

Postby kab21 » Thu Mar 14, 2013 11:44 pm

Izenhart wrote:If you go power early it's generally thought you will get better BA and RBI, which will help cushion the late speed guys. If you go speed early, you will be hard pressed to find production and average later. The Aram example shows this. The 20 SB is going to be easier to make up than the RBI and BA late in the draft.


I agree. I would absolutely trade 20 SBs for the RBI's and AVG.
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