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Twins Outfield?

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Re: Twins Outfield?

Postby kab21 » Tue Mar 12, 2013 11:07 am

Speed is one of many factors in determining BAPIP. Thehardballtimes has had several great articles about this over the years. At one point they developed an xBAPIP (expected). They listed 10-15 variables but didn't show the equation.

One thing that is common of almost all prospects is that their BAPIP's go down significantly when reaching the majors. The minors typically have poorer fielders and field conditions. Hicks has a .330ish BAPIP in the minors. The top 10% of hitters (2000's, 3000+ PA) is >.325. I'm very hesitant to put Hicks in that group based a MiLB BAPIP at the low end of the range. I expect him to have a low .300's BAPIP tbh. And as long as he's K'ing 20% of the time the average won't be good at all.

The knock on him for K's is that he takes too many pitches. In the majors that means that he will be taking even more difficult to hit strikes than balls

This is a good problem to have. This is something that fixes itself with experience. What you don't want is a guy who just has problems making contact, that is a skill that translates poorly to the majors.


It's much better than the other alternative but I also see a hitter that is having problems with K's when he waits for his pitch. In the majors there will be a lot fewer mistakes as pitchers are more able to work parts of the zone that he simply doesn't want to hit in.
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Re: Twins Outfield?

Postby Ender » Tue Mar 12, 2013 11:37 am

Sure in 2013 this is true, but long term this is a quality you want in a hitter. Hicks has a very advanced approach at the plate, he isn't some hacker who just strikes out a lot. This translates a lot better to the majors than the other. His minor league profile is a lot like Alex Gordon in 2010, it is stronger than what we saw in Austin Jackson in the minors, it is better than what we saw in Choo in the minors. a 20% K rate in the minors is not a big deal at all when it comes with a 13% BB, it is an extremely good sign. The big question with Hicks is going to be how much power he has, not whether he is going to be able to hit for at least league average AVG, he completely profiles as a .270+ hitter.

Also 20% is not a high K% at all. 15 teams had a 20%+ K rate last year as a team. 20% is probably about league average in today's game. It will likely spike some to start but it tends to regress back towards the minor league number and in time get lower than the minor league number.
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Re: Twins Outfield?

Postby J35J » Tue Mar 12, 2013 3:23 pm

Ender wrote:Sure in 2013 this is true, but long term this is a quality you want in a hitter. Hicks has a very advanced approach at the plate, he isn't some hacker who just strikes out a lot. This translates a lot better to the majors than the other. His minor league profile is a lot like Alex Gordon in 2010, it is stronger than what we saw in Austin Jackson in the minors, it is better than what we saw in Choo in the minors. a 20% K rate in the minors is not a big deal at all when it comes with a 13% BB, it is an extremely good sign. The big question with Hicks is going to be how much power he has, not whether he is going to be able to hit for at least league average AVG, he completely profiles as a .270+ hitter.

Also 20% is not a high K% at all. 15 teams had a 20%+ K rate last year as a team. 20% is probably about league average in today's game. It will likely spike some to start but it tends to regress back towards the minor league number and in time get lower than the minor league number.


Agreed.
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Re: Twins Outfield?

Postby SpecialFNK » Tue Mar 12, 2013 6:00 pm

Hicks BABIP in the minors is hard to judge. in 5 stops he has had 3 high numbers (.367/.359/.348) and 2 low numbers (.303/.308).
isn't his BABIP going to be more representative (if that's the word) of what his AVG would be like in the majors? not really a reflection of other statistics. despite having highish K rate (career 20.1), he also has a good BB rate (career 14.8). I think eventually he could/should develop into 15+ (20+?) HR/30+ SB. he is now 23 years old (23 last October).
I'm not sure what he could do just in his first season, but I think there is high reward with him.
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Re: Twins Outfield?

Postby kab21 » Tue Mar 12, 2013 8:00 pm

SpecialFNK wrote:Hicks BABIP in the minors is hard to judge. in 5 stops he has had 3 high numbers (.367/.359/.348) and 2 low numbers (.303/.308).
isn't his BABIP going to be more representative (if that's the word) of what his AVG would be like in the majors? not really a reflection of other statistics. despite having highish K rate (career 20.1), he also has a good BB rate (career 14.8). I think eventually he could/should develop into 15+ (20+?) HR/30+ SB. he is now 23 years old (23 last October).
I'm not sure what he could do just in his first season, but I think there is high reward with him.


You are obviously an optimist. He could do a lot of things because he has raw talent. He's never hit 15 HR's in a season yet although develops later. He stole 30 bases for the first time last year but he's not a really efficient base stealer and he'll be going up against better batteries. BAPIP's go up and down all the time regardless if you're minors or majors. His career MiLB BAPIP is not extraordinarily high and a .325 BAPIP is the mark for the top 10% of all players (career stats). If he's going to be more than a .270 hitter then he's going to have to cut his K rate, hit a lot more HR's or be in top 5% of hitter BAPIP's. I guess I'm more of a 'not going to project someone to be the exception' type of guy.

I agree with pretty much everything Ender has said. I guess where I was originally going with that argument is that even he walked A LOT in the minors I don't see those walks translating to the majors. Pitchers will challenge him especially since he has a reputation for taking pitches. His .379 OBP and his .100+ isoD will go down some. I think I projected him for a .075 isoD and that is probably generous.

There must have been a study done on MiLB BAPIP translation to MLB BAPIP. I just think of guys like Jay Bruce that went from a .367 MiLB BAPIP to a .290 MLB BAPIP. Obviously he must be one of the extreme cases but he went from a .308+ hitter to a .255 hitter. As a Twins fan I would be very happy if Hicks is anywhere close to his .271 career avg.
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Re: Twins Outfield?

Postby j24jags » Tue Mar 12, 2013 8:40 pm

As a fantasy owner I would hope Hicks wins the job. I think he will have relevance in 12-14 team leagues this year.
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Re: Twins Outfield?

Postby SpecialFNK » Tue Mar 12, 2013 9:34 pm

I'm not really that interested in what Hicks AVG could be. if he can produce some good HR/SB while batting leadoff and scoring runs it wouldn't bother me if he hit .265-.270
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Re: Twins Outfield?

Postby colt4523 » Fri Mar 15, 2013 4:51 pm

Hoping Mastroianni sticks since I just drafted him. Looks like good steal potential.
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Re: Twins Outfield?

Postby jackie hayes » Fri Mar 15, 2013 7:21 pm

SpecialFNK wrote:I'm not really that interested in what Hicks AVG could be. if he can produce some good HR/SB while batting leadoff and scoring runs it wouldn't bother me if he hit .265-.270


What if he hits .230 (ZiPS projection)?
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Re: Twins Outfield?

Postby Ender » Fri Mar 15, 2013 8:23 pm

colt4523 wrote:Hoping Mastroianni sticks since I just drafted him. Looks like good steal potential.


I think at best he splits time unfortunately.
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