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Twins Outfield?

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Twins Outfield?

Postby colt4523 » Sat Mar 09, 2013 1:04 pm

Wanted some opinions who is going to join Willingham in the twins outfield this year. Is it going to be Mastroianni or Hicks to start the year in CF?
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Re: Twins Outfield?

Postby SpecialFNK » Sat Mar 09, 2013 6:36 pm

last I read the Twins wanted Aaron Hicks to win the job in CF.
as long as Hicks wins the job, I'm hoping to grab him for fantasy.
he has had impressive minor league numbers.
http://thebaseballcube.com/players/prof ... aron-Hicks
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?pl ... osition=OF

he walks good, but it also looks like he has some trouble with the K.

as for the other spot. I read some few weeks ago that maybe Chris Parmalee could start in the OF. he has some sweet potential if he can start.
http://thebaseballcube.com/players/prof ... r-Parmelee
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Re: Twins Outfield?

Postby kab21 » Sat Mar 09, 2013 11:10 pm

Parmelee is almost a lock to start in RF. He's a fairly awful fielder since he's a natural 1Bman but that spot is filled. Parmelee was a 3 outcome player (BB, K, XBH). The Twins were convinced that wasn't going to work so they completely retooled his swing. The K's were cut in half but his power vanished. As of right now he looks like a pretty boring fantasy option at 1B/OF. .275/.340/.425/.765 would be a good season. .275/15/1 for fantasy stats.

Hicks is caught in the MLB service time limbo. I think he's playing himself onto the roster but the Twins could go with Benson or Mastro if they want to delay his FA or prevent super 2. They have publicly said that this won't be the reason that they send him down but who knows. I think in his prime he is a .265/10+/25 (.340+ OBP) guy but I think he will struggle this year. He has always struggled when moving up and his MiLB stats aren't that impressive contrary to the previous poster's opinion. His good seasons are mostly fueled by high BAPIP's.
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Re: Twins Outfield?

Postby AussieDodger » Sat Mar 09, 2013 11:21 pm

Joe Benson is the wildcard in this.
He wasn't healthy last year, and kept playing through injuries (or trying to).
He's still got 2 or 3 weeks to press his claims, and if he can get his pre-2012 mojo back at the plate the Twins might be forced to play him.
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Re: Twins Outfield?

Postby kab21 » Sat Mar 09, 2013 11:27 pm

Benson can be Drew Stubbs if he makes it.
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Re: Twins Outfield?

Postby SpecialFNK » Sat Mar 09, 2013 11:39 pm

Hicks has a .379 career OBP in the minors.
don't most speedy players have a higher BABIP?
I would say 100 R/13 HR/32 SB in 129 games is pretty impressive.
I think he could turn into 15+ HR/30+ SB guy. maybe BJ Upton like, with a little less steals, but a little better AVG.

where did you read about Parmelee changing his swing? and when did he do this?
last year in the minors in the month of August he had .323/.444/.667/1.110/ 8 HR/ with 31 K in 28 games.
then in September with the Twins he had .270/.309/.492/.801/ 3 HR with 19 K in 19 games.
I think it would be stupid for the Twins to change his swing to eliminate the K's if it ends up taking away all his power.
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Re: Twins Outfield?

Postby kab21 » Sun Mar 10, 2013 12:23 am

Hicks MiLB career
.251/.353/.382/.735 BAPIP = .303
.279/.401/.428/.829 BAPIP = .358
.242/.354/.368/.722 BAPIP = .308
.286/.384/.460/.844 BAPIP = .344

he's made progress but each of his good season's were in a high BAPIP year. Knock 20-30 pts of average off due to a lucky BAPIP and he's a .260's hitter. speed is one factor for high BAPIP's but I wouldn't project anyone for a .340+ BAPIP.

I'm also unsure how well Hicks' BB rate will translate. The knock on him for K's is that he takes too many pitches. In the majors that means that he will be taking even more difficult to hit strikes than balls. Overall I see him as a good but not great player (fantasy and real life).

I've followed Parmelee since he was drafted. In the low minors ('07/'08) he was K'ing 28-30% of the time while hitting .240. He wasn't going to make the majors regardless of how much power he had. By 2010 he was K'ing 15% of the time was looking like a potential big leaguer although his power was gone (low .100's isoP). He's shown blips of the power coming back though (like in AAA last year).
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Re: Twins Outfield?

Postby Ender » Mon Mar 11, 2013 10:42 am

don't most speedy players have a higher BABIP?


No. Very few fast guys can keep a .360+ OBP these days because nobody walks a fast guy with no power. Only 24 players in all of baseball posted a .370 or higher OBP last year, of those 24 you had only 7 that had fewer than 20 HR and none had fewer than 10. Only 2 of them stole 30+ bases and that was Braun and Trout.

Hicks has an Austin Jackson/Shin-Shoo Choo/Alex Gordon type profile. Should eventually hit like .280 with a good OBP and hit in that 15-20 HR range with 20ish SB potential. He will most likely start the year in AAA though until the service time issues are over.

The knock on him for K's is that he takes too many pitches. In the majors that means that he will be taking even more difficult to hit strikes than balls


This is a good problem to have. This is something that fixes itself with experience. What you don't want is a guy who just has problems making contact, that is a skill that translates poorly to the majors.
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Re: Twins Outfield?

Postby SpecialFNK » Tue Mar 12, 2013 9:16 am

Ender wrote:
don't most speedy players have a higher BABIP?


No. Very few fast guys can keep a .360+ OBP these days because nobody walks a fast guy with no power. Only 24 players in all of baseball posted a .370 or higher OBP last year, of those 24 you had only 7 that had fewer than 20 HR and none had fewer than 10. Only 2 of them stole 30+ bases and that was Braun and Trout.

Hicks has an Austin Jackson/Shin-Shoo Choo/Alex Gordon type profile. Should eventually hit like .280 with a good OBP and hit in that 15-20 HR range with 20ish SB potential. He will most likely start the year in AAA though until the service time issues are over.


BABIP
Batting Average On Balls In Play.
I'm thinking speedy guys can have a higher BABIP because they beat out more infield hits with their speed.
Ichiro has a career .347 BABIP.
Austin Jackson in his 3 years has had .396/.340/.371 BABIP.
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Re: Twins Outfield?

Postby Ender » Tue Mar 12, 2013 9:22 am

Sorry i read BABIP as OBP in your post.

Yeah speedy guys have higher BABIP and so do guys who make hard contact. It is pretty rare to keep a BABIP anywhere close to .355 in the majors, in the minors it is more common. I could see him settling into a .320 to .330 BABIP or so with his current approach.

Austin Jackson's BABIP will go down, part of why he is being overrated by people. He has the highest career BABIP of any player to play over the past 10 years and he won't maintain that given his skillset. Jackson does get a good number of infield hits so he will keep a high BABIP but that year of .340 is probably more reality sandwiched by a couple of lucky years.
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