"Your Guys" for 2013 - Fantasy Baseball Cafe 2015 Fantasy Baseball Cafe
100% Deposit Bonus for Cafe Members!

Return to Baseball Leftovers

"Your Guys" for 2013

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

Re: "Your Guys" for 2013

Postby Ender » Mon Mar 11, 2013 10:59 am

AussieDodger wrote:
Ender wrote:I don't tend to target guys who need big breakouts to bring back value


I'm the opposite, I like using my last few picks/dollars on high upside lottery tickets.
If your league isn't insanely deep there's always somebody you can replace them with if they bomb.


Well sure last few picks. I'm talking the Lawrie/Hosmer type players last year. An example this year is I'm not taking Adam Eaton or Will Myers where they are going. At that point not only do they have to show up, they have to instantly be stars because they are being drafted ahead of really really solid proven players who are still young enough to breakout themselves. Taking a risky guy with pick 23 in a 30 round draft is one thing, taking them with pick 15 is completely different to me.

An example from the 14 team no bench Pond Scum league draft on this forum. In round 14 Starling Marte (182 PA career) and Emilio Bonifacio (coming off injury, might not have job) went which to me are both sort of boom or bust type guys. I took Morneau who has set a decent sized floor and I'm just hoping for upside over that floor. Very different types of players being targeted and I consider Morneau a steal compared to either of them. It is just how I look at players. Eaton went in round 13 in that draft, a spot I'd never touch him at. Rutledge in round 8 with only 1.5 good months under his belt etc. It is just a difference in draft philosophy.
Ender
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

CafeholicFantasy Expert
Posts: 7733
Joined: 30 Apr 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: "Your Guys" for 2013

Postby jackie hayes » Mon Mar 11, 2013 1:11 pm

Izenhart wrote:Ok I'll rephrase it to 'I don't understand why people like Neil Walker considering where he gets picked.' He hurts you in 4 categories, only BA does he bring positive value from a 12 team replacement level. In a 14 team league he's still the kind of play you only use when all other options have run out.

He's going 167 overall, ahead of value picks Torii Hunter, Homer Bailey, Ichiro Suzuki and ahead of these MI Aybar, Kendrick, Scutaro, Bonifacio, Hardy, Ackley, Cabrera and a guy I feel is going way too low Michael Young. All of these guys have limited value and you can wait until the tier is getting close to dry before giving in. Even later options like Simmons and Segura have upside value and Daniel Murphy should have similar stats for someone going 115 picks later.


I don't think he hurts you in any category, and he has power advantages over many of those MI (and other advantages over Hardy, Ackley). Plus, 2B can't be compared to SS on an even keel -- second is looking particularly weak. I do worry about health, but when right, the production's been solid.
jackie hayes
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

Cafeholic
Posts: 2071
(Past Year: 65)
Joined: 19 Apr 2008
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: "Your Guys" for 2013

Postby jfg » Mon Mar 11, 2013 1:19 pm

For me, it comes down to not liking Zobrist, Phillips, Hill, Kipnis or Altuve where they are going considering far better options at different positions. Then it comes down to not liking Weeks, Utley, Espinosa and Uggla at all. I'm not saying I love Walker, but if I don't get Cano, Kinsler or Pedroia, he's the first 2nd baseman that's actually a value pick unless somebody slips in that first group I mentioned.
Image
jfg
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicGolden Eagle EyeMatchup Meltdown SurvivorLucky Ladders Weekly WinnerTrivia Time Trial Monthly Winner
Posts: 6078
(Past Year: 82)
Joined: 4 Nov 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: "Your Guys" for 2013

Postby Ender » Mon Mar 11, 2013 1:36 pm

I think people just don't realize Walker has only played one full season and don't understand what stats to expect from him.

If he plays 150 games here are his career stats over that set of games... 14 HR, 7 SB, 72 R, 79 RBI, .280 AVG. So he is pretty much AVG in HR, SB, R with a little above average RBI and AVG. Pull out the abysmal cup of coffee he started his career with and those go up a smidge. That is assuming no growth and only playing 150 games. 2012 looks like a carbon copy of 2011 so people just don't realize he was hurt for a big chunk of the season.

Walker isn't a super star by any means but he is better than a lot of trashy MI that people draft.
Ender
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

CafeholicFantasy Expert
Posts: 7733
Joined: 30 Apr 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: "Your Guys" for 2013

Postby Kimbos Beard » Mon Mar 11, 2013 2:17 pm

fsbarren wrote:
Bostonboy wrote:Let's not forget about V-Mart. If he's truly healthy, batting in that lineup, and only DHing, he could put up some nice numbers for a later pick.


Agreed. If he can slip far enough, I've love to grab him on the cheap. My question is how far is realistically far enough to consider V-Mart a steal?


Thats the question. At this point, I don't think he is going to be a "steal" anymore. Yahoo has him at around 88 after Yadier Molina and basically in the same spot as Weiters(87).

If you are going to have to use a late 7th or early 8th Round pick on him in a standard 12 team, he may be able to produce numbers that justify that position, I am just not sure he will be able to really outperform his price.
Kimbos Beard
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 2090
(Past Year: 27)
Joined: 13 Mar 2008
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: "Your Guys" for 2013

Postby silverZ » Mon Mar 11, 2013 3:00 pm

Matt Freakin' Moore
Here's the pitch on the way, a swing and a belt! Left field! Way back! BLUE JAYS WIN!
silverZ
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
Mock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 2963
(Past Year: 73)
Joined: 29 Mar 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Toronto

Re: "Your Guys" for 2013

Postby OaktownSteve » Mon Mar 11, 2013 3:29 pm

Ender wrote:I think people just don't realize Walker has only played one full season and don't understand what stats to expect from him.

If he plays 150 games here are his career stats over that set of games... 14 HR, 7 SB, 72 R, 79 RBI, .280 AVG. So he is pretty much AVG in HR, SB, R with a little above average RBI and AVG. Pull out the abysmal cup of coffee he started his career with and those go up a smidge. That is assuming no growth and only playing 150 games. 2012 looks like a carbon copy of 2011 so people just don't realize he was hurt for a big chunk of the season.

Walker isn't a super star by any means but he is better than a lot of trashy MI that people draft.


I think part of the interest in Walker is guessing if there is still a mini-breakout in him. If you just look at last year, it appears that had he not hurt the back he was headed to a 90 run/90 rbi/20 hr/.280 season. He is very well thought of among real baseball people for his work ethic and his approach. It's tough to project health. But there isn't a particular reason to think his back thing is chronic. I have literally read this off season that he is "in the best shape of his life."

At any rate, if you think he can turn last year's prorated numbers into a full healthy season, he's going to crack the top 100, putting him 7th round material.

He's currently going 168 overall NFBC. I think he's worth it there. 2nd base gets a litte ugly.
OaktownSteve
Little League Legend
Little League Legend


Posts: 22
Joined: 26 Feb 2013
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: "Your Guys" for 2013

Postby ILoveBush » Mon Mar 11, 2013 5:21 pm

jfg wrote:
kevinbaseballer wrote:Billy Butler is so underrated the last 2 years especially when you compare his stats at first compared to the higher players and draft position.


I'm actually reaching for Butler in my drafts because I feel like he's the guy in the 3rd-4th round range who has the best chance of becoming a 1st round talent and at worst he's a 4th round talent.

I like Aoki a lot this year. Stolen bases are easy to come by this year, but if you wait until after Aoki, average becomes an issue. For where he's going it's a good value of 2nd tier stolen bases without getting hurt anywhere else.

This pertains to a couple guys, but I'm definitely not getting caught up in the 4th-8th round 2nd basemen. I've been looking at Walker and Kendrick in every draft because all the second baseman before them just aren't going at a place where I think they bring in good value considering value picks like Walker and Kendrick exist a few rounds later.

Will Middlebrooks is on all my teams either as my starting 3rd baseman or a CI. There's nobody in the 2nd-3rd tier of 3rd baseman that I feel comfortable with. 1st tier is good outside of Longoria, but if I don't get one of those guys or I have a CI spot, I've been drafting Middlebrooks and so far he's come at the value I expected.


I'm a huge Royals' homer and I don't get the Butler love. I wouldn't go near him in the 4th round of a 12 team mixed. You just arent getting any value in round 4. I don't believe his HR spike is supported by any skill improvement.

His HRs went from 19 to 29, while is HR/FB% went from 10.4% to 19.9%, his FB% went from 35.8% to 28.8%, home run distance decreased, avg speed off the bat decreased.

I'm looking to sell high in a dynasty league, as I think he is more of a 18-22 homerun guy.

I also don't understand the Ichiro votes. Over the last two years, he has hit 277/308/361. Barf.
Dave not George W
ILoveBush
College Coach
College Coach


Posts: 265
Joined: 25 Apr 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: "Your Guys" for 2013

Postby jackie hayes » Mon Mar 11, 2013 5:54 pm

ILoveBush wrote:I also don't understand the Ichiro votes. Over the last two years, he has hit 277/308/361. Barf.


Put him back in Seattle, and I agree. Leave him in Yankee Stadium, and I get it.
jackie hayes
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

Cafeholic
Posts: 2071
(Past Year: 65)
Joined: 19 Apr 2008
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: "Your Guys" for 2013

Postby Kimbos Beard » Tue Mar 12, 2013 2:29 pm

jackie hayes wrote:
ILoveBush wrote:I also don't understand the Ichiro votes. Over the last two years, he has hit 277/308/361. Barf.


Put him back in Seattle, and I agree. Leave him in Yankee Stadium, and I get it.


Yep. Look at his Yankees numbers and you will understand why people are believing in Ichiro again.

.322 28-5-27-14 in 67 games. Also there is a good chance he will be hitting at the top of that lineup this year rather than at the bottom.
Kimbos Beard
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 2090
(Past Year: 27)
Joined: 13 Mar 2008
Home Cafe: Baseball

PreviousNext

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: unioreimi and 8 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Sleepers Rankings Leagues


  • Fantasy Baseball
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact