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What % of winning fantasy baseball is luck and skill?

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Re: What % of winning fantasy baseball is luck and skill?

Postby bigh0rt » Mon Apr 15, 2013 8:26 pm

OBPlover wrote:
PrzMtDewCamacho wrote:I'm sure it's already been posted here, but just in case

""Luck is the residue of good design." - Branch Rickey

Or...

You pick up Mike Trout in may 2012 because an Outfielder is hurt or performing terribly and you finish top 3 almost solely because of him.

Come on, it's not 80-90% skill.

The fact that every team who got him didn't win their league is a testiment to the skill involved.
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Re: What % of winning fantasy baseball is luck and skill?

Postby Ender » Mon Apr 15, 2013 8:31 pm

So you think someone who has never played fantasy baseball can join a 12 team league of experts and win like 10% of the time? That is what you are saying when you say it is 80-90% luck. Or that one of the better fantasy baseball players in the world could join a league with 11 newbies and only win like 15% of the time, again that is what you are saying if you think it is 80-90% luck.

Then take the longer view and say what if they played in 10 leagues. If 11 newbies and one amazing player played in 10 leagues I'd expect the amazing player to win at least 5 out of 10 and probably more, not the 2 out of 10 you suggest.
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Re: What % of winning fantasy baseball is luck and skill?

Postby PrzMtDewCamacho » Mon Apr 15, 2013 8:42 pm

bigh0rt wrote:
OBPlover wrote:
PrzMtDewCamacho wrote:I'm sure it's already been posted here, but just in case

""Luck is the residue of good design." - Branch Rickey

Or...

You pick up Mike Trout in may 2012 because an Outfielder is hurt or performing terribly and you finish top 3 almost solely because of him.

Come on, it's not 80-90% skill.

The fact that every team who got him didn't win their league is a testiment to the skill involved.


And it's only happened once since beginning of competitive fantasy baseball as far as anyone here knows. So yes, Trout is the lucky exception
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Re: What % of winning fantasy baseball is luck and skill?

Postby PrzMtDewCamacho » Mon Apr 15, 2013 9:25 pm

Looking back since 1980, there are 3 other hitters that could arguably be put in the same sentence as Trout. And they're all A's; Canseco '86, McGwire '87 and Henderson '80.

Ricky put up good numbers in few games in his first season. I'm pretty sure managers could extrapolate his 33 SB in 350 ABs to see he would be top five in the previous season, so he's out.

Canseco showed signs in '85 with a .490 SLG, but not much else. What keeps him apart from Trout is his low value the next season compared to the rest of the league (thanks to a .240 AVG).

McGwire is probably the closest analogy, a first round pick at #10 compared to Trout at #25, he struggled in 58 plate appearances in '86 and came out like a maniac in '87. I'm not sure those 58 PAs were enough to turn off the pre draft hype for Big Mac. And the level of competition he faced prevented him from being top dog like Trout in 2012. Thank Paul Molitor (114/16/75/45/.353), Dale Murphy (115/44/105/16/.295), Daryl Strawberry (108/39/104/36/.284) and Eric Davis (120/37/100/50!/.293) for that. Dang, give me an Eric Davis every season please.
Last edited by PrzMtDewCamacho on Mon Apr 15, 2013 9:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: What % of winning fantasy baseball is luck and skill?

Postby J35J » Mon Apr 15, 2013 9:30 pm

Ender wrote:So you think someone who has never played fantasy baseball can join a 12 team league of experts and win like 10% of the time? That is what you are saying when you say it is 80-90% luck. Or that one of the better fantasy baseball players in the world could join a league with 11 newbies and only win like 15% of the time, again that is what you are saying if you think it is 80-90% luck.

Then take the longer view and say what if they played in 10 leagues. If 11 newbies and one amazing player played in 10 leagues I'd expect the amazing player to win at least 5 out of 10 and probably more, not the 2 out of 10 you suggest.



The luck meter changes based on the competitive level of the league. An expert vs rookies is going to show you the full extent of the skill involved. All experts vs all experts every year....I wouldn't be surprised if you almost didn't have a new winner each year.
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Re: What % of winning fantasy baseball is luck and skill?

Postby soxfan364 » Mon Apr 15, 2013 10:29 pm

My main money league.. not so good, but still in the middle of the pack

Hames 16.2 IP 7.56 ERA 1.62 WHIP
Gallardo 16.2 ip 6.61 ERA 1.78 WHIP
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Re: What % of winning fantasy baseball is luck and skill?

Postby OBPlover » Mon Apr 15, 2013 10:30 pm

Ender wrote:So you think someone who has never played fantasy baseball can join a 12 team league of experts and win like 10% of the time? That is what you are saying when you say it is 80-90% luck. Or that one of the better fantasy baseball players in the world could join a league with 11 newbies and only win like 15% of the time, again that is what you are saying if you think it is 80-90% luck.

Then take the longer view and say what if they played in 10 leagues. If 11 newbies and one amazing player played in 10 leagues I'd expect the amazing player to win at least 5 out of 10 and probably more, not the 2 out of 10 you suggest.


Who are you addressing this to? Me?

I never said it was 80%-90% luck, just that it's not 80%-90% skill. My personal take is that it's around 60%/40% skill vs luck.
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Re: What % of winning fantasy baseball is luck and skill?

Postby Ender » Mon Apr 15, 2013 10:49 pm

J35J wrote:

The luck meter changes based on the competitive level of the league. An expert vs rookies is going to show you the full extent of the skill involved. All experts vs all experts every year....I wouldn't be surprised if you almost didn't have a new winner each year.



Well sure if all players are equally skilled then it is mostly luck. That is why you great poker players play lots of pots with fish and avoid the other good players. If the question is just a flat how much of the game is skill the number is very high, something like 70%. If the question is assuming a bunch of really competent players how much of the game is luck then the answer is probably something like 40% luck with the vast majority of that luck being April since it is so random.
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Re: What % of winning fantasy baseball is luck and skill?

Postby wrveres » Tue Apr 16, 2013 1:49 am

PrzMtDewCamacho wrote:And it's only happened once since beginning of competitive fantasy baseball as far as anyone here knows. So yes, Trout is the lucky exception

pujols and braun come to mind.
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Re: What % of winning fantasy baseball is luck and skill?

Postby posty » Tue Apr 16, 2013 2:44 pm

100% luck...
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