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What % of winning fantasy baseball is luck and skill?

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Re: What % of winning fantasy baseball is luck and skill?

Postby J35J » Tue Mar 12, 2013 2:55 pm

BJSFAN123 wrote:What's great about baseball though is even if you are dealing with a lot of injuries, you can usually find good replacements on the WW if you are active. Good luck finding worthy replacements in fantasy football mid-season.


That completely depends on league size though.
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Re: What % of winning fantasy baseball is luck and skill?

Postby BJSFAN123 » Tue Mar 12, 2013 3:07 pm

J35J wrote:
BJSFAN123 wrote:What's great about baseball though is even if you are dealing with a lot of injuries, you can usually find good replacements on the WW if you are active. Good luck finding worthy replacements in fantasy football mid-season.


That completely depends on league size though.


True, I'm talking about your standard 12 team baseball league vs 12 team football league.
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Re: What % of winning fantasy baseball is luck and skill?

Postby OBPlover » Tue Mar 12, 2013 5:45 pm

It depends on what we are actually calling as skill?

There is skill in drafting players. But someone reasonably active should be able to find a decent online drafting guide.

There are certain players that are just masters of manipulating league settings. I was in one league and a guy used to make 100-200 trade offers a year. All were completely lopsided but persistance meant that some of these deals would leak through and he was a consistent winner. Other times, people draft hitters with their first 10 picks and cycle starting pitchers to win Wins and K's.

None of these things I would consider "skill" but more like a "skill set" involving patience, persistance and the ability to live with being annoying.
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Re: What % of winning fantasy baseball is luck and skill?

Postby J35J » Wed Mar 13, 2013 9:00 am

OBPlover wrote:It depends on what we are actually calling as skill?

There is skill in drafting players. But someone reasonably active should be able to find a decent online drafting guide.

There are certain players that are just masters of manipulating league settings. I was in one league and a guy used to make 100-200 trade offers a year. All were completely lopsided but persistance meant that some of these deals would leak through and he was a consistent winner. Other times, people draft hitters with their first 10 picks and cycle starting pitchers to win Wins and K's.

None of these things I would consider "skill" but more like a "skill set" involving patience, persistance and the ability to live with being annoying.


LOL, agreed.
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Re: What % of winning fantasy baseball is luck and skill?

Postby J35J » Wed Mar 13, 2013 2:28 pm

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Re: What % of winning fantasy baseball is luck and skill?

Postby soxfan364 » Wed Mar 13, 2013 3:16 pm

Interesting link...

this part is something I've thought about a bit re: the Astros move to the AL

The addition of Houston to AL and loss of Houston in the NL effectively changes the dynamic—and statistical expectations—of every team in the NL Central and AL West. With the Astros likely losing 100+ games again, will players on AL West teams get to pad their stats? (Except Texas, which already had been regularly playing the Astros in interleague play.) Will the stats of players on NL Central teams be drawn down? Homer Bailey had a 1.25 ERA in 22 IP against the Astros last year. Adam Wainwright went 3-0 with a 1.66 ERA. Lance Lynn went 3-0 with a 1.40 ERA. Andrew McCutchen batted .381 against the Astros. Joey Votto batted .481! Those Houston doormats are now gone.
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Re: What % of winning fantasy baseball is luck and skill?

Postby TheRock » Wed Mar 13, 2013 4:29 pm

J35J wrote:http://www.baseballhq.com/special-report-ron-shandlers-unpublished-secrets


How do I compute auction values based on Mayberry projections? Interesting read, some solid points.
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Re: What % of winning fantasy baseball is luck and skill?

Postby J35J » Wed Mar 13, 2013 4:38 pm

TheRock wrote:
J35J wrote:http://www.baseballhq.com/special-report-ron-shandlers-unpublished-secrets


How do I compute auction values based on Mayberry projections? Interesting read, some solid points.


Yeah, I thought about doing something similar to that Mayberry projection, I'll have to play around with that idea somemore.
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Re: What % of winning fantasy baseball is luck and skill?

Postby fantasyfiend » Thu Mar 14, 2013 1:17 am

Everything BaseballHQ publishes is direct marketing tactics to improve their subscriptions.

As a marketing professional who has written sales letters, and managed many campaigns, this "article" follows sales-letter techniques to a T.

Get their attention with a catchy headline, state something controversial/scary/bizarre to arouse interest, educate about a problem, offer a piece of the solution, and then show where to get the complete package (paid subscription).

This isn't necessary a bad thing. But when somebody is obviously marketing to you, it puts a lot of the information they are providing into a cloud of "is this information real/accurate, or are numbers, statements, etc. being exaggerated with the intent to sell subscriptions?"

This is why I don't bother with baseballHQ.

On that note, I've been doing a similar tactic described in the article for years. I use my favorite projections for hitters & pitchers, I run the dollar values, but then I go over each position, look up every guy, and then manually edit the dollar values based on my "Human" research/intervention.

e.g. if you think a guy is better than his projection, you give him a bump depending on how much better you think he is. If you think somebody is worse you shave off some dollars from his value.
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Re: What % of winning fantasy baseball is luck and skill?

Postby Izenhart » Thu Mar 14, 2013 8:19 am

It was an interesting read but it's nothing more than a dumb way to complicate value, and its open to all kinds of interpretation - It's kind of like saying stats can't be predicted so I'll pick based on giving equal weight to these 7 silly categories... Doing this he wound up with a team of experienced players considered to be at the tail end of their primes. I think he made smart picks based on his knowledge and drafting experience.

What the article basically tells me is projecting is such a big guessing game, it can't be done with any form of accuracy. I say - if you believe that, then how can you consider yourself an expert?
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