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With the fifth pick...

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Who do you take with the fifth pick in a re-draft?

Joey Votto
18
29%
Matt Kemp
26
41%
Carlos Gonzalez
0
No votes
Albert Pujols
13
21%
Andrew McCutchen
6
10%
Prince Fielder
0
No votes
Other
0
No votes
 
Total votes : 63

Re: With the fifth pick...

Postby Pogotheostrich » Thu Mar 07, 2013 4:23 pm

GiantsFan14 wrote:And there is pretty obviously downside to that seeing as how he didn't hit a homerun in the second half last year. Also it's not like Pujols and Kemp don't have upside over their projections.

I worry about that too but even without the HR he was a pretty good hitter in the 2nd half. I just have more faith in Votto's power returning then Pujols turning back the clock or Kemp's shoulder/hamstring being healthy all year.
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Re: With the fifth pick...

Postby mocabeenow » Thu Mar 07, 2013 4:44 pm

Voted for Votto. I think it will be tough for Kemp to return to a 40/40 type player. 30/30 is still great, but I think Votto is the safer pick, and you don't want the value of your 1st Round Pick be "well, i hope he..."
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Re: With the fifth pick...

Postby OBPlover » Thu Mar 07, 2013 11:52 pm

GiantsFan14 wrote:
Pogotheostrich wrote:I like Votto here.

I think my biggest problem with Votto in fantasy is that he actually walks too much. Sure he'll score more runs for it, but I think it caps his power and RBI potential a lot lower than you would think given his ability. I think expecting more than 25-30 HR is a mistake this year given injury concerns and the amount he walks.



Hmmm, walks don't cap home run potential. In fact, there's probably a strong positive correlation to walks and Hr rate. A guy who takes a lot of walks is skilled at getting into a lot of hitter's counts 3-0, 3-1, etc and then can sit on fastballs.

Votto's walk rate has always been high, including the year he hit 39 HR's. Maybe not quite as high as last year but still exceptional. And Barry Bonds' had I believe, the highest walk rate in Major League history - that certainly didn't stop him from hitting HRs.

That being said, the thing to do is wait out the Spring. Definitely want to see if Votto hits some HRs in spring training. Sure ST games are pretty meaningless but it shows at least, his wrist is healthy enough to hit HRs.
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Re: With the fifth pick...

Postby jlm53089 » Fri Mar 08, 2013 12:14 am

Votto.

Consistency is key, and he still has upside. Hits in a small ballpark, has a good lineup, and will chip in the occasional steal.

Oh and he helped me when a championship last year too. B-)
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Re: With the fifth pick...

Postby GiantsFan14 » Fri Mar 08, 2013 12:45 am

OBPlover wrote:Hmmm, walks don't cap home run potential. In fact, there's probably a strong positive correlation to walks and Hr rate. A guy who takes a lot of walks is skilled at getting into a lot of hitter's counts 3-0, 3-1, etc and then can sit on fastballs.

Votto's walk rate has always been high, including the year he hit 39 HR's. Maybe not quite as high as last year but still exceptional. And Barry Bonds' had I believe, the highest walk rate in Major League history - that certainly didn't stop him from hitting HRs.

That being said, the thing to do is wait out the Spring. Definitely want to see if Votto hits some HRs in spring training. Sure ST games are pretty meaningless but it shows at least, his wrist is healthy enough to hit HRs.


I never said walks stop players from hitting homeruns, but when Votto is getting 100 less at bats than everyone else around him because he walks so much, it's going to stunt the number of homeruns he can hit unless his FB% or HR/FB goes up significantly. He simply has less chances to hit homeruns than everyone else and I think that'll make it difficult for him to hit 30 HR again. He's incredibly valuable in OBP leagues, but all those walks don't necessarily help in standard leagues.
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Re: With the fifth pick...

Postby bayside » Fri Mar 08, 2013 1:11 am

I dont see how this can be anyone besides either Kemp or Votto
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Re: With the fifth pick...

Postby bayside » Fri Mar 08, 2013 1:25 am

btw Giants fan, you should know better than anyone that walking all the damn time has zero effect on homerun ceiling.
Bonds walked 177 times the year he 73.
He hit 45 or more 6 times and averaged something like 175 BB's per season
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Re: With the fifth pick...

Postby GiantsFan14 » Fri Mar 08, 2013 1:37 am

bayside wrote:btw Giants fan, you should know better than anyone that walking all the damn time has zero effect on homerun ceiling.
Bonds walked 177 times the year he 73.
He hit 45 or more 6 times and averaged something like 175 BB's per season


And you should know better than anyone not to compare anyone to Barry Bonds.
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Re: With the fifth pick...

Postby bayside » Fri Mar 08, 2013 1:45 am

Touche.

but this page should really drive the point home:
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?p ... &sort=13,d

fielder, bautista, granderson, cabrera, pujols... 5 of only 6 players to hit 100 or more HR's over the past 3 seasons.
Also all in the top 16 overall of BB's drawn in that time frame. (and all over 200 BB's!)
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Re: With the fifth pick...

Postby GiantsFan14 » Fri Mar 08, 2013 2:03 am

I don't think Votto has the pure power that a lot of those guys do. He's not gonna sustain a 20+ HR/FB% (2010 looks like an outlier) nor does he hit fly balls at near the same rate as most of those guys(hence he's such a high average hitter).

My point is not that walking is going to prevent homeruns, but the more you walk the less at bats you're going to get and unless it corresponds with hitting more fly balls or having a higher HR/FB, that's going to mean less HRs. All I'm saying is that given Votto's skillset, I don't see him hitting more than 25-30 HR due to the fact that he's only gonna get like 500-550 at bats, and that's only if the power comes back and he stays healthy.
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