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With the fifth pick...

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Who do you take with the fifth pick in a re-draft?

Joey Votto
18
29%
Matt Kemp
26
41%
Carlos Gonzalez
0
No votes
Albert Pujols
13
21%
Andrew McCutchen
6
10%
Prince Fielder
0
No votes
Other
0
No votes
 
Total votes : 63

Re: With the fifth pick...

Postby Ender » Thu Mar 07, 2013 12:31 am

I have him at .310, 95 R, 28 HR, 95 RBI, 6 SB and that puts him in a tie for #7. That is also taking injury concern into account or you could probably add like 5% to all the counting stats. I have Kemp and Pujols ahead of him by the slimmest of margins.

In 2011, his distance ranked just 60th. So maybe his huge home run outburst was indeed for real.


Or maybe he just got a bunch of juicy pitches. He feasted on Brewer pitchers hitting 6 HR off of them. 11 of his HR were off of pitchers most fans would struggle to identify and that is giving the benefit of the doubt to guys like Fiers and Smyly. Include those types and it 18 of his HR. Only 4 of his HR last year were against players that I consider elite within the confines of 2012. He hit a lot of long balls off of a lot of mediocre pitchers.

Give me an over/under on 30 HR for him this year and it is a easy no thought under for me.
Last edited by Ender on Thu Mar 07, 2013 10:23 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: With the fifth pick...

Postby TheRock » Thu Mar 07, 2013 10:06 am

To me this is a coin-flip between Kemp and Votto. Either make sense here, and I would probably take either of them over consensus #4 Cano. Especially with his looming PED suspension. :^ :-D

Vote is neck and neck, seems like the masses agree with it being these two guys.
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Re: With the fifth pick...

Postby jcook3127 » Thu Mar 07, 2013 2:27 pm

GiantsFan14 wrote:
Pogotheostrich wrote:I like Votto here.


I think my biggest problem with Votto in fantasy is that he actually walks too much. Sure he'll score more runs for it, but I think it caps his power and RBI potential a lot lower than you would think given his ability. I think expecting more than 25-30 HR is a mistake this year given injury concerns and the amount he walks.

I've got him at .314-93-26-98-8 which puts him 13th overall by my rankings.


That might put him 13th but you can BANK those numbers right now. You can literally put them down in red ink, because you have them. If you go Kemp or McCutchen or even Pujols after last year, you just don't have anywhere near that level of certainty.

So the expected values bumps Votto up. Multiply the % you are confident in Kemp putting up better numbers than Votto, for example, and that evens out the projections. Part of the reason why I liked Cano #4 (before this steroid story)..

I like Votto here for the same reason I liked Cano 4th. He's so consistently very good. Pujols wouldn't be an awful pick here, especially with Hamilton now in LAA. In Fact, I'm pretty sure Pujols will have better numbers than Votto this year. But owning Albert for the first half last year was so scary that I'd probably shy away.
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Re: With the fifth pick...

Postby BronXBombers51 » Thu Mar 07, 2013 2:30 pm

Ender wrote:
BronXBombers51 wrote:I think I go Votto here.

Ender wrote:I voted Kemp with the caveat that I'd want to see him play more before committing to this pick. Votto is the other easy choice here but again I'd want to see how healthy he is. McCutchen is a bust waiting to happen this year, I don't trust Pujols and the other names don't seem to belong in the discussion at all.


Curious as to why you think Cutch will bust.


To be clear I meant drafting him 5th is nothing but a bust potential, I like McCutchen. His skills don't support his AVG from last year. That is likely the upper end of his power potential that he reached last year. He is not a good basestealer and as the franchise player they are less likely to run him as much so I think 20 SB is the peak as well. It still is not a good lineup so the R+RBI are somewhat iffy as well since they were so high last year. I think McCutchen is a downside pick in every single category compared to what he did last year. Most of the time when a player breaks out you see a small regression the next year and not another step forward. A small regression of his season last year means late 1st round, not #5.


Gotcha, I agree with you about him being bust potential if you're spending that high of a pick on him. Just wanted to be sure you've got him as a bust based on that ADP and not as a bust overall. I've got him in a dynasty and I'm fully expecting that BA to take a dive.
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Re: With the fifth pick...

Postby J35J » Thu Mar 07, 2013 2:59 pm

jcook3127 wrote:
GiantsFan14 wrote:
Pogotheostrich wrote:I like Votto here.


I think my biggest problem with Votto in fantasy is that he actually walks too much. Sure he'll score more runs for it, but I think it caps his power and RBI potential a lot lower than you would think given his ability. I think expecting more than 25-30 HR is a mistake this year given injury concerns and the amount he walks.

I've got him at .314-93-26-98-8 which puts him 13th overall by my rankings.


That might put him 13th but you can BANK those numbers right now. You can literally put them down in red ink, because you have them. If you go Kemp or McCutchen or even Pujols after last year, you just don't have anywhere near that level of certainty.

So the expected values bumps Votto up. Multiply the % you are confident in Kemp putting up better numbers than Votto, for example, and that evens out the projections. Part of the reason why I liked Cano #4 (before this steroid story)..

I like Votto here for the same reason I liked Cano 4th. He's so consistently very good. Pujols wouldn't be an awful pick here, especially with Hamilton now in LAA. In Fact, I'm pretty sure Pujols will have better numbers than Votto this year. But owning Albert for the first half last year was so scary that I'd probably shy away.


+1


I've got Kemp in this spot with Votto next and then Pujols.
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Re: With the fifth pick...

Postby Kimbos Beard » Thu Mar 07, 2013 3:34 pm

GiantsFan14 wrote:
Pogotheostrich wrote:I like Votto here.


I think my biggest problem with Votto in fantasy is that he actually walks too much. Sure he'll score more runs for it, but I think it caps his power and RBI potential a lot lower than you would think given his ability. I think expecting more than 25-30 HR is a mistake this year given injury concerns and the amount he walks.

I've got him at .314-93-26-98-8 which puts him 13th overall by my rankings.


That stat line may be a fair projection, but there is no question Votto has upside from that. You can draft Votto 5th or 6th and expect that projection as a baseline but also have the chance at more, which makes him enticing. His walk rate was absurd last year, but the 2 years before he had plenty of walks and still put up 100+ R and 100+ RBI.

As far as the injury, at this point Pujols and Kemp also have "injury risk" so you have to factor that in to all three guys.
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Re: With the fifth pick...

Postby Quackman » Thu Mar 07, 2013 4:01 pm

Cutch haters. Shocking how you guys ignore big injuries and conditioning. Cant wait to quote some of your Cutch hating posts at the end of the year Giantsfan, not a .300 hitter?, please. Hes the best athlete and healthiest by far of the votto/kemp/cutch. With my first pick i always want the safest/lowest risk pick available. Srry but Kemp running into walls every other game and last years injuries makes a huge "red flad" for me and no way im taking him in any league early first round. Love seeing people pass on Cutch this year. So funny.
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Re: With the fifth pick...

Postby GiantsFan14 » Thu Mar 07, 2013 4:16 pm

Kimbos Beard wrote:
GiantsFan14 wrote:
Pogotheostrich wrote:I like Votto here.


I think my biggest problem with Votto in fantasy is that he actually walks too much. Sure he'll score more runs for it, but I think it caps his power and RBI potential a lot lower than you would think given his ability. I think expecting more than 25-30 HR is a mistake this year given injury concerns and the amount he walks.

I've got him at .314-93-26-98-8 which puts him 13th overall by my rankings.


That stat line may be a fair projection, but there is no question Votto has upside from that. You can draft Votto 5th or 6th and expect that projection as a baseline but also have the chance at more, which makes him enticing. His walk rate was absurd last year, but the 2 years before he had plenty of walks and still put up 100+ R and 100+ RBI.

As far as the injury, at this point Pujols and Kemp also have "injury risk" so you have to factor that in to all three guys.


And there is pretty obviously downside to that seeing as how he didn't hit a homerun in the second half last year. Also it's not like Pujols and Kemp don't have upside over their projections.
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Re: With the fifth pick...

Postby GiantsFan14 » Thu Mar 07, 2013 4:17 pm

jcook3127 wrote:That might put him 13th but you can BANK those numbers right now. You can literally put them down in red ink, because you have them. If you go Kemp or McCutchen or even Pujols after last year, you just don't have anywhere near that level of certainty.


Not sure about that. If he stays healthy and the power returns, then most likely. But those aren't givens.
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Re: With the fifth pick...

Postby Ender » Thu Mar 07, 2013 4:22 pm

McCutchen hit .289 with 13 HR and 6 SB in the 2nd half last year including hitting under .260 each of the last 2 months. I don't think anyone is hating on him when they don't believe he is going to repeat last year. I mean I'm sorry I don't believe he is going to have a .407 BABIP for the entire 1st half of the season again, doesn't make me a hater, just not a believer. The guy had a mega hot streak, it happens. I'm not paying for him to have it again this year though.
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