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Thoughts on Power/Speed OFs

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Thoughts on Power/Speed OFs

Postby CodenameDuchess » Wed Mar 06, 2013 2:04 pm

In doing draft prep, I've been coming up with a few potential lineups that I'd like to end up with come draft day (12 team keeper auction, Yahoo). So far, I keep coming back to the idea of having a team where nearly every player has at least some sort of power/speed threat; guys like the obvious Trout/Braun, as well as the Uptons, Kinsler, Ellsbury, Jennings, etc. However the more I do this the more I see that a guy like BJ Upton's projections - while obviously superior - aren't significantly better than someone like say Norichika Aoki (using Fangraphs-Steamer projections in this case, 0.246/80/22/75/25 vs. 0.284/96/14/63/23 respectively). At the same time, BJ has an ADV on Yahoo of $21.4, whereas Aoki comes in at $3.6 .

That all being the case, I was interested in seeing how people felt about spending the extra money for the potentially small improvement from Aoki to Upton, or really any low cost speed/power OF (Carlos Gomez [$7.5], Starling Marte [$1.2], Cameron Maybin [$1.0], etc) to their higher priced alternatives (the Uptons, CarGo, Ellsbury). Considering the former players can all be had for next to nothing, and all appear projected to put up double digit HR/SB, would a team be better off getting these potentially undervalued cheap players to fill up the OF and passing that money along to guys like Cabrera, Pujols, Cano, etc., where (in my opinion anyway) it's obvious why these guys cost so much more than lower tier players at the same position - there's no low cost alternative to Miguel Cabrera that even comes close.

To summarize, I think the overriding question here is: Is it worth paying for high priced Outfielders when similar contributors can be found at huge discounts?
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Re: Thoughts on Power/Speed OFs

Postby TheRock » Thu Mar 07, 2013 11:43 am

CodenameDuchess wrote:Is it worth paying for high priced Outfielders when similar contributors can be found at huge discounts?


I think you answered your own question. ;-)

To your other questions -

CodenameDuchess wrote:In doing draft prep, I've been coming up with a few potential lineups that I'd like to end up with come draft day


Don't. An auction is much more reactive than a draft. If you decide ahead of time to fixate on certain players, you will likely overpay for them while passing up bargains elsewhere. Auctions take a lot of prep. Get some good auction values custom for your league. Decide what your are willing to pay for each player then stick to it. Many players will sell higher than they should. Let them. Scoop up the late round bargains you're already finding.
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Re: Thoughts on Power/Speed OFs

Postby Ender » Thu Mar 07, 2013 12:04 pm

If you really think you can get value later I'd avoid a position. I think you are going to be unhappy if you think of Aoki as close to Upton in value though. Last year was probably the top end of expectations for his power.

I like to spread my risk so I like to have a lot of guys that add 10-20 SB instead of a few guys that add 40+. I also think power is scarce (especially power that comes with a decent AVG), speed is plentiful. So I tend to target high HR guys that throw in a few SB early and then if I don't have enough SB late I can fill out my roster with guys like Denard Span that are more R/SB oriented and going insanely cheap.
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Re: Thoughts on Power/Speed OFs

Postby CodenameDuchess » Thu Mar 07, 2013 3:10 pm

TheRock wrote:
CodenameDuchess wrote:Is it worth paying for high priced Outfielders when similar contributors can be found at huge discounts?


I think you answered your own question. ;-)

To your other questions -

CodenameDuchess wrote:In doing draft prep, I've been coming up with a few potential lineups that I'd like to end up with come draft day


Don't. An auction is much more reactive than a draft. If you decide ahead of time to fixate on certain players, you will likely overpay for them while passing up bargains elsewhere. Auctions take a lot of prep. Get some good auction values custom for your league. Decide what your are willing to pay for each player then stick to it. Many players will sell higher than they should. Let them. Scoop up the late round bargains you're already finding.


Thanks for the input. I guess underlying my main question was another; that being "am I missing something?" But it doesn't seem like I'm terribly far off. Since posting I've noticed some other guys I think might be undervalued, like Alex Gordon (Current Y! ADV $12.5), who I'd rather spend on than someone like BJ Upton (I should probably note here that my league tends to overspend on elite names, and then guys in the $10-20 range always go for less than they should). There's definitely a ton of value in the OF.

As for the potential lineups, it's not something I set in stone, and I'm not gonna ignore values if they present themselves. It's mainly that I've found it helpful in the past to know that if I get X player at # dollars, I have a very generic outline as to how that might affect my spending at other positions.

Ender wrote:If you really think you can get value later I'd avoid a position. I think you are going to be unhappy if you think of Aoki as close to Upton in value though. Last year was probably the top end of expectations for his power.

I like to spread my risk so I like to have a lot of guys that add 10-20 SB instead of a few guys that add 40+. I also think power is scarce (especially power that comes with a decent AVG), speed is plentiful. So I tend to target high HR guys that throw in a few SB early and then if I don't have enough SB late I can fill out my roster with guys like Denard Span that are more R/SB oriented and going insanely cheap.


I guess I overstated that - I don't think Aoki is close to Upton, I just think he's closer than their price difference would indicate. And I agree with you about spreading steals out, that's more or less what I'm trying to do.
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Re: Thoughts on Power/Speed OFs

Postby bayside » Fri Mar 08, 2013 1:54 pm

Ive seen guys use this approach, then at the end of the draft they have a roster full of cheaper "value" players, no roster spots left, and tons of money unspent.
Dont be that guy.
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Re: Thoughts on Power/Speed OFs

Postby Ender » Fri Mar 08, 2013 2:30 pm

there's no low cost alternative to Miguel Cabrera that even comes close.


I think this is really your issue here. There is no easy way to replace Ryan Braun or Matt Kemp either. The SB don't really have that much to do with it. I will say one thing, you will never see me draft a Reyes type player where he goes or someone like Alex Gordon or Austin Jackson where they go. Leadoff hitters have depressed value and that low end HR + good speed is certainly easy to replace. 20/20 type guys are not easy to replace though, especially not 20/20 guys batting in the middle of an order. Anyone who bats 3rd through 5th has a bunch of value. Almost anyone hitting leadoff is going to be easier to replace later in the draft.

The jump from Austin Jackson to Denard Span is going to be much smaller than the jump from a power hitting OF taken near Jackson to guys drafted in the last few rounds.
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