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Projecting Young 1st Basemen for 2013 and Beyond

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Re: Projecting Young 1st Basemen for 2013 and Beyond

Postby Grounded Polo » Fri Mar 08, 2013 8:03 pm

SpecialFNK wrote:why are these the main 4 to be considered?
I think Paul Goldschmidt should be a major factor in there. Goldschmidt is 25. I would put him 1st for 2013 ahead of Freeman.


Like others have said, he's way above these guys so it's pointless to include him.
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Re: Projecting Young 1st Basemen for 2013 and Beyond

Postby Havok1517 » Fri Mar 08, 2013 8:26 pm

I think its interesting that there is actually a lack of current 1B prospects. I know some guys might be moved there in the future, ala Singleton, but Cron, Yelich are the only 2 potential 1B impact bats even somewhat close to the majors imo while giving small consideration to Adams and Hunter.
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Re: Projecting Young 1st Basemen for 2013 and Beyond

Postby AussieDodger » Fri Mar 08, 2013 11:06 pm

2013:
Freeman
Rizzo
Belt
Hosmer

Beyond:
Rizzo
Freeman
---gap---
Belt
Hosmer

Hosmer is a bit of an enigma right now.
2012 was so bad that if he repeats it in '13 he's out of a job. Especially if the Royals think they're contending.
In 2012 his BB/K was solid, but his AB/XBH was worse then Michael Bourn, Andres Torres and Joaquin Arias. That's not gonna fly as a 1B.
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Re: Projecting Young 1st Basemen for 2013 and Beyond

Postby AHF » Sat Mar 09, 2013 12:25 am

Anyone else a bit concerned that Goldschmidt isn't going to sustain his .340 BABIP? Some definite batting average risk. The > 2/1 BB/K makes me a bit worried. Pedro Alvarez's BA fell drastically after his .341 BABIP rookie season. I am not equating them but I have concern about regression.
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Re: Projecting Young 1st Basemen for 2013 and Beyond

Postby HighHeater » Sat Mar 09, 2013 8:18 am

AHF wrote:Anyone else a bit concerned that Goldschmidt isn't going to sustain his .340 BABIP? Some definite batting average risk. The > 2/1 BB/K makes me a bit worried. Pedro Alvarez's BA fell drastically after his .341 BABIP rookie season. I am not equating them but I have concern about regression.


Of course hes goi g to regress some but I also expect his ISO to climb toward his normal levels as well... go look at what he did in the minors, that kid is 6'3 and all of 250lbs... that weight is not of the Prince Fielder material either. He has a ton of power in that bat which he has yet to show at the big league level. Hes plenty capable of putting up a .275 30hr type year and thats with a regression in BABIP. he did make sustainable gains in his average last year.
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Re: Projecting Young 1st Basemen for 2013 and Beyond

Postby umphrey » Sat Mar 09, 2013 2:22 pm

I'm off the Hosmer band wagon... I traded him away in my keeper last year because I think his upside is overrated.
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Re: Projecting Young 1st Basemen for 2013 and Beyond

Postby mm92280 » Sat Mar 09, 2013 4:05 pm

MasterX1918 wrote:How about Alonso? Right on par with Belt in my book


I know minor league numbers don't give the full picture but Belt's minor league numbers blow away Alonso's, which would suggest that Belt has a higher ceiling.
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Re: Projecting Young 1st Basemen for 2013 and Beyond

Postby mm92280 » Sat Mar 09, 2013 4:12 pm

Grounded Polo wrote:
SpecialFNK wrote:why are these the main 4 to be considered?
I think Paul Goldschmidt should be a major factor in there. Goldschmidt is 25. I would put him 1st for 2013 ahead of Freeman.


Like others have said, he's way above these guys so it's pointless to include him.


Yes, Goldschmidt is going ahead of all these other guys in drafts, so I didn't consider him. The one concern with Goldschmidt are his splits versus lefties and righties. Thus far at the major league level, he has a .996 OPS against and a .796 OPS against. I don't have his minor league splits to know if he was better against lefties down there as well or if this is just a fluke. It could easily be, as it is only with 670 at bats and he could easily improve against righties as he gets more experience. Even if he doesn't, an OPS of around .800 versus righties isn't bad and not a platoon-worthy.
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Re: Projecting Young 1st Basemen for 2013 and Beyond

Postby mm92280 » Sat Mar 09, 2013 4:17 pm

HighHeater wrote:
AHF wrote:Anyone else a bit concerned that Goldschmidt isn't going to sustain his .340 BABIP? Some definite batting average risk. The > 2/1 BB/K makes me a bit worried. Pedro Alvarez's BA fell drastically after his .341 BABIP rookie season. I am not equating them but I have concern about regression.


Of course hes goi g to regress some but I also expect his ISO to climb toward his normal levels as well... go look at what he did in the minors, that kid is 6'3 and all of 250lbs... that weight is not of the Prince Fielder material either. He has a ton of power in that bat which he has yet to show at the big league level. Hes plenty capable of putting up a .275 30hr type year and thats with a regression in BABIP. he did make sustainable gains in his average last year.



I kind of see it that way - he isn't likely to hit above .285 most years like some 1st baseman will but that raw power should make up for it. In his prime, I would guess a typical season would be about .265 or .270 AVG 35 HR 105-110 RBI. Sort of like Richie Sexson at his best but with a handful of stolen bases.
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Re: Projecting Young 1st Basemen for 2013 and Beyond

Postby SpecialFNK » Wed Mar 13, 2013 4:53 pm

should there be any concern with Anthony Rizzo.
his FB% was low for what should be a power hitter.
July - 30.2
August - 29.1
September - 27.5

his HR/FB seems high, compared to FB%.
July - 26.9 (7 HR)
August - 8.0 (2 HR)
September - 20.0 (5 HR)

27.5 FB% isn't going to cut it if he wants to be a big HR threat. even Billy Butler has had a higher FB% through his career, and that's something people would talk about that was holding Butler back.

I would imagine Rizzo will have this number increase. he has been a HR threat through the minors. but that's something worth mentioning.
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