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2013 Milwaukee Brewer fantasy outlook

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2013 Milwaukee Brewer fantasy outlook

Postby Ender » Wed Mar 06, 2013 12:30 pm

I watch a lot of Brewer's games and now that I'm mostly done with my cafe drafts I'll give some thoughts on their players. This team is being underrated nationally and will be in the hunt for a playoff spot. They feature one of the best offenses in the NL if not the best one and have a lot of strong young pitching. Depth is a major concern however so if they get a string of injuries things can go south pretty fast for them.

One thing to note is Miller Park plays as a pretty neutral park for runs scored. It is a good park for HR and it tends to inflate K because of the batting eye. This helps both their pitchers and hitters for fantasy though soft tossers that they seem to love to bring in tend to get hammered with HR there.

The teams defense has also improved a lot in recent years with Weeks being the only below average defensive player they have left with maybe Hart as well though he improved with time. Gomez is one of the best defensive CF in the game and Aoki is a CF playing in RF. Braun and Aramis have worked their defense to about league average.

Their manager is very aggressive so expect SB from everyone.

Ryan Braun - Most valuable guy in the game, easy #1 pick.

Aramis Ramirez - Do expect most of a repeat of last year. You can shave like 5% off each stat and you get what I'd expect for him (maybe down to 5 SB). Being underrated in drafts.

Corey Hart - Same old Corey as we've seen the past 2 years. He has had this injury in the past and recovered from it faster than they thought he would so I would tend to believe him when he says back by May. Also being underrated in drafts.

Norichika Aoki - Love the guy but the power isn't for real. Probably being overrated in drafts right now. This is a skillset you can get really late in the draft from a guy like Denard Span.

Jonathan Lucroy - will be a top 10 C in next year's draft. Avg skills are mostly for real as he has an elite eye at the plate. People don't seem to realize that an injury interrupted the season or he would have been a high teen HR guy and he will throw in 4 or 5 steals. Better fantasy player than Ruiz even without the suspension getting in the way. Can't throw guys out so start your SB guys against him but he is absolutely elite at framing pitches which is why the Brewers led baseball in K/9 last year.

Carlos Gomez - The power is for real, do not sleep on it. He is going pretty aggressively in the drafts I've been in so the word is out. His power breakout came in 2011 and it was a change in approach. They told him to ignore everything the Twins taught him and be himself. He will hit 20+ HR and steal 30+ bases but won't be in a premium position in the lineup because he swings at everything and won't hit much over .250. Upside is a mediocre BJ Upton season, not a good one.

Jean Segura - It is kind of a shame the lineup is so deep because he will be batting 8th which really limits his value. Very good hitter and has some wheels. I wouldn't be surprised if he has Eric Aybar type numbers on the season if Aybar doesn't happen to hit 2nd all year which I think is very questionable. It is hard to sell me on anyone batting 8th though so I'm hoping I don't have to resort to him in many leagues~. Obviously risk with any really young player and if he doesn't hit for AVG he has no value.

Rickie Weeks - He is a jerk. The bad start last year was injury related so I expect him to repeat 2011 but well every time I expect something from him he stinks.

Yovanni Gallardo - BUY BUY BUY. While people look at his stats last year and think he regressed it simply is not true. On opening day he gave up 4 HR, 5 BB and 6 ER in 3.2 IP, yeah I know the stats count but the first couple weeks of baseball are so flukey I tend to ignore things like this as an outlier. The rest of the season he had a 3.4 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and over a K per inning. He had one other bad outing early in April also against the Cardinals and was basically stud the rest of the year. If you have a bench sit him vs the Cardinals who he has a career ERA of over 6 against. He does rely on his curve so sit him if he pitches @coors as well.

Michael Fiers - Your guess is as good as mine. I'm not sure his success with his fastball is repeatable. His change up is absolutely nasty. Very good control with good Ks makes the floor pretty high. Peripherals suggest he got unlucky if anything last year. The Ks are for real so I'm buying personally. Might have an innings limit but it will be like 190 IP so not a huge concern.

Chris Narveson - Next. See my note above about soft tossers and HR in that park.

Mark Rogers - Pass. I don't see any reason to expect him to be a major league quality pitcher this year.

Marco Estrada - Buying on Estrada too. He has posted back to back great seasons with what looks like mediocre stuff so I don't know how sustainable it is. HR might make him a bad pick but he should at least give you Ks and WHIP. He is going pretty early in the drafts I've seen and does have durability issues.

Willy Peralta - Pretty heavy fastball. He is going to have control problems to start the season at least so I'd take a wait and see approach. He is some version of Carlos Zambrano (dunno if it will be the good or bad kind, hopefully not the obnoxious angry kind though). The kind of guy who is going to generate a ton of ground balls with his fastball which always seems odd.

John Axford - expect more 2010 than 2012. It seems lame to blame something on the bullpen coach but the entire bullpen was just awful and then they fired the bullpen coach and every single one of them rebounded. There is really nobody behind him to take the job either.
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Re: 2013 Milwaukee Brewer fantasy outlook

Postby Pogotheostrich » Wed Mar 06, 2013 12:56 pm

Nationally I don't think they are being underrated because there are 2 better teams in their division. If the SP improves they could be in the mix but that is a big if. The offense is great and the defense is better but beyond Gallardo that rotation is a whole lot of ???.

Fantasy-wise:

Braun is a stud. Overall number 1.

Lucroy is a solid catcher and being underrated.

Aoki is a solid play if you need R, SB and BA. I've seen him be over and under rated in drafts.

Gomez doesn't seem to be coming at a discount at all. I think the power is realy but it looks like everyone else does too.

Hart looks like all downside to me with the injury. I thought he was being underratted before but I don't feel comfortable drafting him as a starter in roto. H2H he could be a bargain.

Weeks and Aram are bigs risks IMO. If you told me both stay healthy this year I'd want them both but who knows.

Jean Segura for steals only. Not much else to expect.

I'm OK with Gallardo as my number 1 SP and pumped if he is my number 2. Seems to going later in drafts then I expected.

Friers and Estrada are 4 and 5 starters for me. Seem to be goings sooner than I like in drafts.

I'm not touching the rest of the rotation this year.
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Re: 2013 Milwaukee Brewer fantasy outlook

Postby Ender » Wed Mar 06, 2013 2:00 pm

Nationally I don't think they are being underrated because there are 2 better teams in their division


I agree with the Reds being better. The Cardinals aren't better, they are just different. There are very few players on the Cardinals that I am comfortable will stay healthy the full season, Motte and Molina are the only 2 I can think of. That team is all risk everywhere. The one big advantage they have is the strong minor league system but even then the 1st year of young players is a crapshoot.

Hart is nothing but upside where he is going. He is going so late in drafts this year and probably will miss 1 month.
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Re: 2013 Milwaukee Brewer fantasy outlook

Postby Pogotheostrich » Wed Mar 06, 2013 2:22 pm

Ender wrote:That team is all risk everywhere. The one big advantage they have is the strong minor league system but even then the 1st year of young players is a crapshoot.

I agree with that but on the flip side isn't that one of the Brewer's biggest problems? Their bench and minor league system is not pretty. Hart goes down and you get Gamel. Gamel gets hurt and you get Hunter Morris. The Cardinals are crazy deep.
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Re: 2013 Milwaukee Brewer fantasy outlook

Postby MashinSpuds » Wed Mar 06, 2013 7:40 pm

Ender wrote:Hart is nothing but upside where he is going. He is going so late in drafts this year and probably will miss 1 month.

Truly agree on this. The guy can fill in at least three categories and could be at 1B/OF in some leagues. Managers need to think about their year last year, when sometime in May or June one needed some kind of spark to prove that their fantasy team is a contender. Hart is a good guy to keep in the wings!
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Re: 2013 Milwaukee Brewer fantasy outlook

Postby Frenchiegangsta9 » Thu Mar 07, 2013 4:03 pm

Does anyone think Segura = Everth Cabrera? I would think they would have similar stats at the end of the season with maybe Segura having the advantage in AVG and Cabrera with slightly more steals.
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Re: 2013 Milwaukee Brewer fantasy outlook

Postby Ender » Thu Mar 07, 2013 4:17 pm

Frenchiegangsta9 wrote:Does anyone think Segura = Everth Cabrera? I would think they would have similar stats at the end of the season with maybe Segura having the advantage in AVG and Cabrera with slightly more steals.


I think Segura is more likely a 20-30 SB guy while Cabrera is a 40-50 SB type guy. Segura will eventually be a .290 hitter, dunno what to expect for this year though. Cabrera's value is heavily dependent on where he hits in the lineup, if he can manage to be leadoff I like him more than Segura for sure. Segura will have more power than Cabrera too.

Perfect world upside for Segura is probably like .290 AVG, 13 HR, 30 SB with pretty cruddy R/RBI unless he somehow works his way into the 2 hole. The floor (assuming a full season) is more like .250, 7 HR, 20 SB though which is obviously pretty ugly if it is hitting 8th~.
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Re: 2013 Milwaukee Brewer fantasy outlook

Postby Frenchiegangsta9 » Thu Mar 07, 2013 7:19 pm

Ender wrote:
Frenchiegangsta9 wrote:Does anyone think Segura = Everth Cabrera? I would think they would have similar stats at the end of the season with maybe Segura having the advantage in AVG and Cabrera with slightly more steals.


I think Segura is more likely a 20-30 SB guy while Cabrera is a 40-50 SB type guy. Segura will eventually be a .290 hitter, dunno what to expect for this year though. Cabrera's value is heavily dependent on where he hits in the lineup, if he can manage to be leadoff I like him more than Segura for sure. Segura will have more power than Cabrera too.

Perfect world upside for Segura is probably like .290 AVG, 13 HR, 30 SB with pretty cruddy R/RBI unless he somehow works his way into the 2 hole. The floor (assuming a full season) is more like .250, 7 HR, 20 SB though which is obviously pretty ugly if it is hitting 8th~.


Thank you for the words of wisdom Ender. I got Segura as my starting MI(kelly johnson backing him up :-o ) and was curious of what I could expect from him. I also read that although he will be their full time SS, he will most likley be batting towards the bottom of the lineup limiting his R/RBI production.
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Re: 2013 Milwaukee Brewer fantasy outlook

Postby jfg » Thu Mar 07, 2013 8:07 pm

I know you did this because you watch a lot of Brewers games, but I'd love to see one of these for all teams even if you don't post them all. I don't think there's a team I could put together with full knowledge...
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