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2013 New York Yankees

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Re: 2013 New York Yankees

Postby BronXBombers51 » Wed Mar 06, 2013 8:34 pm

thedude wrote:
BronXBombers51 wrote:
Lucky to finish 4th? :-?

The Yankees are favored to win the division. In fact, PECOTA projected them to win the East with 88 wins, Tampa to win 84 and Toronto and Boston with 83 each. Could NY finish in 4th? Of course. But they could just as easily finish in 1st. The division is wide open this year and no team looks particularly dominant. The playoffs are a crapshoot, anyone can beat anyone. And it's not as if the Angels, Tigers, Rangers or anyone else in the AL is invincible. The entire league is beatable.

And how can you say "it looks that way for the next 3 years or so" when almost the entire roster is turning over after this year? Aside from A-Rod, Teixiera and Sabathia, the 2013 Yankees are no indicator of what the 2014 or 2015 Yankees will look like. This isn't a team that was hamstrung like Boston was before the mega-deal last year.


Well I assume that PECOTA projection was before Teixera and Granderson got hurt.

You realize the opening day lineup is likely going to be

1B Dan Johnson
2B Cano
3B Youk
DH Hafner
SS Nunez (or a still recovering Jeter)
LF Rivera
CF Gardner
RF Ichiro
C Stewart

There is no way that is as good as Toronto or Tampa, and will likely need to battle Baltimore for third place. Hafner and Youkilis are hardly iron-men at this point in their careers. This could very well be a team with Dan Johnson batting cleanup.


Well I made that post before the news of Teixeira broke. Obviously that's a blow to the team. Still, we're talking about 1.5-2 months, not a whole season. If the Yankees can survive April and May, I don't see why they can't compete at least for a wild card spot, if not the division. Obviously if they continue losing major players to injury their chances quickly evaporate. But you can say the same thing about Tampa or Toronto if they lose guys like Longoria or Bautista. My point is, the Yankees, as currently constructed, are a team good enough to compete. Not a team "lucky to finish in 4th place" as mudhens said. I'm not making any guarantee as to where they'll finish. I admitted they could easily finish in 4th, maybe even last if things go especially bad. But they could also win the East and I wouldn't bat an eye. That's how open the division is this year. You don't start talking about trading Robinson Cano on March 6 when you have a very reasonable expectation to be competitive.
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Re: 2013 New York Yankees

Postby kab21 » Wed Mar 06, 2013 9:17 pm

BronXBombers51 wrote:
I just don't understand what you're proposing. As I said a hundred times, the only players on that list signed beyond this year are CC, A-Rod, Teixeira and Ichiro (2 years.) Everyone else...Jeter, Kuroda, Pettitte, Rivera, Granderson, Cano, Hafner, Youkilis...are done after 2013 (unless Jeter picks up his $8M player option.)


Don't you see this as a problem? Or do you expect the Yankees to be able to sign every FA to replace these guys? The Yankees definitely aren't going build a new team out of their farm system.

The Yankees are going to have to go through a retooling phase but luckily they will have a lot of money to do so.
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Re: 2013 New York Yankees

Postby BronXBombers51 » Wed Mar 06, 2013 9:24 pm

kab21 wrote:
BronXBombers51 wrote:
I just don't understand what you're proposing. As I said a hundred times, the only players on that list signed beyond this year are CC, A-Rod, Teixeira and Ichiro (2 years.) Everyone else...Jeter, Kuroda, Pettitte, Rivera, Granderson, Cano, Hafner, Youkilis...are done after 2013 (unless Jeter picks up his $8M player option.)


Don't you see this as a problem? Or do you expect the Yankees to be able to sign every FA to replace these guys? The Yankees definitely aren't going build a new team out of their farm system.

The Yankees are going to have to go through a retooling phase but luckily they will have a lot of money to do so.


Generally I'm not worried about the Yankees spending the necessary money to put a competitive team on the field. 2014 might be a down year for them if they are trying to get under the luxury tax threshold. But by 2015 I fully expect them to have one of the better teams in baseball again.
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Re: 2013 New York Yankees

Postby thedude » Wed Mar 06, 2013 9:31 pm

kab21 wrote:
BronXBombers51 wrote:
I just don't understand what you're proposing. As I said a hundred times, the only players on that list signed beyond this year are CC, A-Rod, Teixeira and Ichiro (2 years.) Everyone else...Jeter, Kuroda, Pettitte, Rivera, Granderson, Cano, Hafner, Youkilis...are done after 2013 (unless Jeter picks up his $8M player option.)


Don't you see this as a problem? Or do you expect the Yankees to be able to sign every FA to replace these guys? The Yankees definitely aren't going build a new team out of their farm system.

The Yankees are going to have to go through a retooling phase but luckily they will have a lot of money to do so.



In today's MLB the best players tend not to hit free agency. May be in 2 years that will be different, but I would not be shocked to see many if not most of the top free agents resign with their current team (or be traded then resign).

The Yankees are not World Series contenders as they are currently constituted. They have some good prospects, particularly Mason Williams, but those guys are not close to MLB ready. The might be better served by having a top ten draft pick not year, since the 2014 draft is looking to be a very very strong draft.
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Re: 2013 New York Yankees

Postby thedude » Wed Mar 06, 2013 9:44 pm

BronXBombers51 wrote:
thedude wrote:
BronXBombers51 wrote:
Lucky to finish 4th? :-?

The Yankees are favored to win the division. In fact, PECOTA projected them to win the East with 88 wins, Tampa to win 84 and Toronto and Boston with 83 each. Could NY finish in 4th? Of course. But they could just as easily finish in 1st. The division is wide open this year and no team looks particularly dominant. The playoffs are a crapshoot, anyone can beat anyone. And it's not as if the Angels, Tigers, Rangers or anyone else in the AL is invincible. The entire league is beatable.

And how can you say "it looks that way for the next 3 years or so" when almost the entire roster is turning over after this year? Aside from A-Rod, Teixiera and Sabathia, the 2013 Yankees are no indicator of what the 2014 or 2015 Yankees will look like. This isn't a team that was hamstrung like Boston was before the mega-deal last year.


Well I assume that PECOTA projection was before Teixera and Granderson got hurt.

You realize the opening day lineup is likely going to be

1B Dan Johnson
2B Cano
3B Youk
DH Hafner
SS Nunez (or a still recovering Jeter)
LF Rivera
CF Gardner
RF Ichiro
C Stewart

There is no way that is as good as Toronto or Tampa, and will likely need to battle Baltimore for third place. Hafner and Youkilis are hardly iron-men at this point in their careers. This could very well be a team with Dan Johnson batting cleanup.


Well I made that post before the news of Teixeira broke. Obviously that's a blow to the team. Still, we're talking about 1.5-2 months, not a whole season. If the Yankees can survive April and May, I don't see why they can't compete at least for a wild card spot, if not the division. Obviously if they continue losing major players to injury their chances quickly evaporate. But you can say the same thing about Tampa or Toronto if they lose guys like Longoria or Bautista. My point is, the Yankees, as currently constructed, are a team good enough to compete. Not a team "lucky to finish in 4th place" as mudhens said. I'm not making any guarantee as to where they'll finish. I admitted they could easily finish in 4th, maybe even last if things go especially bad. But they could also win the East and I wouldn't bat an eye. That's how open the division is this year. You don't start talking about trading Robinson Cano on March 6 when you have a very reasonable expectation to be competitive.



Really think they will compete for the second wild card?

Here are the zips WAR projects for key Yankee players:

Cano 6.0
Curtis Granderson 3.0 (over a full season)-prorate that to 2/3's of a season and its a WAR of 2.0
Mark Teixeira 2.9 (over a full season)-prorate that to 2/3's of a season and its a WAR of 2.0
Kevin Youkilis 2.7
Brett Gardner 2.0
Derek Jeter 1.7
Ichiro Suzuki 1.1
Travis Hafner 1.1
Dan Johnson 0.9 (for 530 at bats)
Eduardo Nunez 0.8 (for 400+ at bats)
Francisco Cervelli 0.5
Chris Stewart 0.5

Basically its Cano and Youkilis in the lineup and not much else (at least until Grandy/Teix come back). Its not like they have the Giants pitching staff either.
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Re: 2013 New York Yankees

Postby bigh0rt » Wed Mar 06, 2013 9:57 pm

I love every second of this.
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Re: 2013 New York Yankees

Postby toledomudhens » Wed Mar 06, 2013 10:03 pm

Bronx, i dont know exactly how to cut and paste so im going to try my best to respond to you.
#1. When i said trout, harper, stanton guys, I was talking about players that are already superstars and are total cost controled for years to come.....try to really read what I am saying....
#2. Ok I will name 7 teams that the yanks could not compete against...in no perticular order. Toronto, detroit, texas,aneheim, san fran, nationals, phillies, brewers, baltimore, tampa...well thats more than 7.....
#3 we have a pitcher who was supposed to help now, well, when your a pitcher...u need your arm, we gave away a top hitting catcher, and now we have cervelli....joke
#4 When trading for prospects and draft picks you never know what your going to get, when was pujols drafted, was trout supposed to as good as he is?...I would rather get that chance to maybe get something special then nothing at all, for another spoiled ball player.
#5 zack greinke last year...cliff lee, mark texiera....please do your homework before saying things your so positive about.
Like I said, This is what I would be looking to do if I was them, but I am not them. I see nothing but old timers, and steriod junkies falling apart....Go yankees go...I am so sure they wont make playoffs I am willing to make a sig bet with u...maybe a red sox sig for the whole offseason?
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Re: 2013 New York Yankees

Postby BronXBombers51 » Wed Mar 06, 2013 10:34 pm

toledomudhens wrote:Bronx, i dont know exactly how to cut and paste so im going to try my best to respond to you.
#1. When i said trout, harper, stanton guys, I was talking about players that are already superstars and are total cost controled for years to come.....try to really read what I am saying....
#2. Ok I will name 7 teams that the yanks could not compete against...in no perticular order. Toronto, detroit, texas,aneheim, san fran, nationals, phillies, brewers, baltimore, tampa...well thats more than 7.....
#3 we have a pitcher who was supposed to help now, well, when your a pitcher...u need your arm, we gave away a top hitting catcher, and now we have cervelli....joke
#4 When trading for prospects and draft picks you never know what your going to get, when was pujols drafted, was trout supposed to as good as he is?...I would rather get that chance to maybe get something special then nothing at all, for another spoiled ball player.
#5 zack greinke last year...cliff lee, mark texiera....please do your homework before saying things your so positive about.
Like I said, This is what I would be looking to do if I was them, but I am not them. I see nothing but old timers, and steriod junkies falling apart....Go yankees go...I am so sure they wont make playoffs I am willing to make a sig bet with u...maybe a red sox sig for the whole offseason?


1. I know exactly what you're saying. My point is that Cano was exactly that player for years. Now he's on the verge of hitting the open market. Eventually all of the players you mentioned will be at that point as well, and their teams will be in the same boat the Yankees are in. Except the Yankees are better equipped to retain their superstar than most other teams.
2. You're going to have to define "compete" in order to continue this conversation. If you really don't think the Yankees can keep up with the Orioles, even despite the losses of Granderson and Teixeira, I guess we'll just agree to disagree.
3. I don't know where you're going with this. Are you saying the Yankees should have checked their crystal ball to see Pineda was going to get hurt?
4. There is nothing spoiled about Cano wanting to test the open market. It is his right. You can say that you disagree with handing out another mega-deal and cite the A-Rod and Tex deals as examples...and that would be a valid point. But that has nothing to do with having "old timers and steroid junkies" on the team. Cano is neither of those things, he's a superstar in the prime of his career. Letting him go doesn't change the rest of the team.

I'm certainly not going to place a bet on the Yankees making the playoffs...I've said 3 times already in this thread that I wouldn't be surprised in the least if they finished in 4th place. I said they can compete. You compared the Yankees to the 2012 Red Sox that went 69-93. That's what I'm taking issue with. The Yankees are not going to trade the centerpiece of their team when they have a chance to compete.
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Re: 2013 New York Yankees

Postby toledomudhens » Wed Mar 06, 2013 10:44 pm

Yes i believe they will be the 2012 red sox......sorry if u don't agree...
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Re: 2013 New York Yankees

Postby BronXBombers51 » Wed Mar 06, 2013 10:47 pm

thedude wrote:Really think they will compete for the second wild card?

Here are the zips WAR projects for key Yankee players:

Cano 6.0
Curtis Granderson 3.0 (over a full season)-prorate that to 2/3's of a season and its a WAR of 2.0
Mark Teixeira 2.9 (over a full season)-prorate that to 2/3's of a season and its a WAR of 2.0
Kevin Youkilis 2.7
Brett Gardner 2.0
Derek Jeter 1.7
Ichiro Suzuki 1.1
Travis Hafner 1.1
Dan Johnson 0.9 (for 530 at bats)
Eduardo Nunez 0.8 (for 400+ at bats)
Francisco Cervelli 0.5
Chris Stewart 0.5

Basically its Cano and Youkilis in the lineup and not much else (at least until Grandy/Teix come back). Its not like they have the Giants pitching staff either.


Clearly they've taken some huge blows in the last week. Grandy and Teix should be back by mid-late May, so it's not as if their production is gone for the season. And I don't view Tampa or Toronto's lineups are being particularly potent either, especially if they happen to lose any of their sluggers to injury for an extended period of time. You also can't discount their ability to go acquire someone via trade if they get desperate, which they've been known to do. This from the latest FanGraphs entry:

FanGraphs wrote:Despite all the injuries, the Yankees ought to still be good. This doesn’t change that. But given where the Yankees project to be on the win curve, every problem is magnified, and everyone else’s odds in the AL East just got a little bit better.


http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.ph ... ed-yankee/

That's about how I feel. I'm certainly not placing any bets on the Yankees in light of Grandy and Teix going down, but am I writing them off? No.
Last edited by BronXBombers51 on Wed Mar 06, 2013 10:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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