When I look at the Yankees of the spring of 2013, I see the Yankees of 1989 all over again. The pattern is strikingly similar. The trend is disturbing if you’re a Yankees fan.
What significance does this play for his fantasy value? Is it a good move in real life for the Yankees?
Mostly insignificant unless you are in 20+ tm leagues. He's a role player that could see some starts early in the season.
The problem the Yankees face is that for the 1-2 months until Tex and Granderson come back is that they have very little offense. A sub .500 record looks pretty likely in apr/may.
Elite hitters - Cano Good hitters - Ichiro, Jeter and Gardner (these all have ? marks) Average at best hitter - Youk and Haf Poor hitters - C/1B/LF and the frequent subs at 3B/DH
Youk is a lot better than average at best. At best, he's a 4-5 WAR corner infielder. Even last year when he took a big step back he was a much better hitter than Ichiro, who has been a well below league average hitter for the past 2 seasons. I know everybody is predicting a magical return to four-seasons-ago form from the 40 year old whose value is tied to his legs, but I don't see it happening. At least not nearly to the extent most people do.
If the Yankees are going to have a good season, it will be Youkilis and Cano carrying them. That's a pretty scary thought, but Teix and A-Rod are write-offs. Jeter had a great year last year, after 2 years that seemed to have him riding off into the sunset, but is a danger of being an empty .290 batting average with bad defense, assuming his ankle is 100%. Gardner is also a huge asset but that mostly comes from his elite defense.
Skin Blues wrote:Youk is a lot better than average at best. At best, he's a 4-5 WAR corner infielder. Even last year when he took a big step back he was a much better hitter than Ichiro, who has been a well below league average hitter for the past 2 seasons. I know everybody is predicting a magical return to four-seasons-ago form from the 40 year old whose value is tied to his legs, but I don't see it happening. At least not nearly to the extent most people do.
If the Yankees are going to have a good season, it will be Youkilis and Cano carrying them. That's a pretty scary thought, but Teix and A-Rod are write-offs. Jeter had a great year last year, after 2 years that seemed to have him riding off into the sunset, but is a danger of being an empty .290 batting average with bad defense, assuming his ankle is 100%. Gardner is also a huge asset but that mostly comes from his elite defense.
Youkilis is not anywhere near the 4 to 5 WAR third baseman that he was in his prime. First his power has been trending downwards: .257 to .202 to .174. Second: his walk rate in 2012 after years of being steady over 13%, dropped to 10.0%. His GB% has been trending upward: 33.9 %, 34.6 %, 37.0 %, 42.9 %. While his flyball% has been trending downward: 44.2 %, 44.3 %, 46.7 %, 38.2 %, 36.3 %. In all that means fewer walks, fewer home runs, that his batting average will not bound back much. His defense, which was a strength in his prime (at first) is now well below average. I would not expect more than a 2.5 WAR from Youkilis.
"I do not think baseball of today is any better than it was 30 years ago... I still think Radbourne is the greatest of the pitchers." John Sullivan 1914-Old athletes never change.
Skin Blues wrote:Youk is a lot better than average at best. At best, he's a 4-5 WAR corner infielder. Even last year when he took a big step back he was a much better hitter than Ichiro, who has been a well below league average hitter for the past 2 seasons. I know everybody is predicting a magical return to four-seasons-ago form from the 40 year old whose value is tied to his legs, but I don't see it happening. At least not nearly to the extent most people do.
If the Yankees are going to have a good season, it will be Youkilis and Cano carrying them. That's a pretty scary thought, but Teix and A-Rod are write-offs. Jeter had a great year last year, after 2 years that seemed to have him riding off into the sunset, but is a danger of being an empty .290 batting average with bad defense, assuming his ankle is 100%. Gardner is also a huge asset but that mostly comes from his elite defense.
Youkilis is not anywhere near the 4 to 5 WAR third baseman that he was in his prime. First his power has been trending downwards: .257 to .202 to .174. Second: his walk rate in 2012 after years of being steady over 13%, dropped to 10.0%. His GB% has been trending upward: 33.9 %, 34.6 %, 37.0 %, 42.9 %. While his flyball% has been trending downward: 44.2 %, 44.3 %, 46.7 %, 38.2 %, 36.3 %. In all that means fewer walks, fewer home runs, that his batting average will not bound back much. His defense, which was a strength in his prime (at first) is now well below average. I would not expect more than a 2.5 WAR from Youkilis.
Neither would I. I didn't say I expect 4-5 WAR, I said that was a best case scenario. He's till their second best hitter behind Cano. And if the Yanks are gonna succeed, Youk will have to be a major contributor.
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by Ender » Tue Mar 12, 2013 10:29 am 
