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Strategy for Building a Pitching Staff - Ideas?

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Re: Strategy for Building a Pitching Staff - Ideas?

Postby J35J » Tue Mar 05, 2013 12:09 pm

AHF wrote:In a $315 auction league, how many known commodities are there among the $12 - $18 crowd?


I'm assuming he meant $12-18 range when considering a $260 budget. If you are working with a $315 budget then that range increases.
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Re: Strategy for Building a Pitching Staff - Ideas?

Postby Ender » Tue Mar 05, 2013 12:13 pm

Yeah I meant in a standard draft. In the 12 team auction I just did the following guys went in that $12-$18 range.

Bumgarner, Latos, Moore, Gallardo, Melden, Anderson, Scherzer, Zimmerman, Shields, Wainwright, Gio, Samardja, Lincecum, Dickey, Halladay though to be fair a couple of those are keepers and might have gone over $18 in a normal draft but you can see the types of guys.

Some combination of 2 or 3 of those guys is more than enough to anchor your staff. You just don't need a big name pitcher in fantasy baseball because they have more risk than reward. It won't surprise me if a number of those guys listed above end up more valuable than a number of the $20+ pitchers.

Having said that I ended up spending $25 on Hamels and kept Price at $25. I would have much rather saved that $25 on Hamels and gone with the $15 Gallardo and $16 Latos guys for sure, I kind of got caught price enforcing on Hamels.
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Re: Strategy for Building a Pitching Staff - Ideas?

Postby AHF » Tue Mar 05, 2013 12:41 pm

Ender wrote:Yeah I meant in a standard draft. In the 12 team auction I just did the following guys went in that $12-$18 range.

Bumgarner, Latos, Moore, Gallardo, Melden, Anderson, Scherzer, Zimmerman, Shields, Wainwright, Gio, Samardja, Lincecum, Dickey, Halladay though to be fair a couple of those are keepers and might have gone over $18 in a normal draft but you can see the types of guys.


Gotcha. I think that translates to $22 as the top of your target range.

Between keeper inflation and the higher budget, we definitely see a lot of $25+ pitchers. (Is that Brett Anderson who went for $12-18?) Scherzer killed me for most of last year (until I unsuccessfully tried to trade him and ultimately dropped him right before he got hot over the last 1/3 of the season) but I would love to get guys like Gio, Wainright, Bumgarner (drooling at that price), Zimmerman, etc.
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Re: Strategy for Building a Pitching Staff - Ideas?

Postby Ender » Tue Mar 05, 2013 2:02 pm

Some people call them soft aces. Guys who put up not quite ace like numbers but have some sort of dependable track record and in most cases are young enough they could take that step into becoming an ace. I'd rather draft Price the year he becomes an ace than Price the year after basically, that is where I feel the value is. Gallardo as an example has put up just below ace numbers for a few years now, he puts up ace quality stretches each year but can't maintain a full season of it, he is only 27 and if he ever finds that one notch better control he can easily match one of those ace quality guys. That is the type I like to target.
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Re: Strategy for Building a Pitching Staff - Ideas?

Postby Pogotheostrich » Tue Mar 05, 2013 2:46 pm

AHF wrote:
cannonarm21 wrote:Of course, this is only my opinion.

I feel that what you mention is a common mistake. I think if you use a high draft pick on a pitcher, but don't back it up with a solid #2, that pick ends up being a wasted pick. You have minimum innings pitched, so you will be forced to start several pitchers. One pitcher is not enough. It is too much of a guessing game to assume you will get solid pitchers later in the draft. Chances are the "sleepers" you target will be targeted by other owners. I am one of the few who usually has 3 pitchers by round 11.


Just for reference, I came out of the last two drafts with the following core guys on my staffs and ended up in terrible shape:

2012:
Felix Hernandez
Zach Greinke
Daniel Hudson*
Max Scherzer*
Andrew Bailey*
Matt Thornton*
Brandon League
Addison Reed
Vinnie Pestano
Tyler Clippard

2011:
Cliff Lee
Zach Greinke
Jonathan Sanchez*
Matt Garza*
Colby Lewis*
Joe Nathan*
David Aardsma
Brandon League
Aroldis Chapman
Chris Sale

These staffs were not just bad, they were terrible (the guys with the *'s really wet the bed for me) but I felt decent about both of them leaving the draft so I am thinking I can stand some real improvement in the system I am using to evaluate these guys.


Did you hit the innings cap in 2011 or 2012? Those staffs seem really RP heavy to me.
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Re: Strategy for Building a Pitching Staff - Ideas?

Postby AHF » Tue Mar 05, 2013 3:57 pm

Pogotheostrich wrote:
AHF wrote:
cannonarm21 wrote:Of course, this is only my opinion.

I feel that what you mention is a common mistake. I think if you use a high draft pick on a pitcher, but don't back it up with a solid #2, that pick ends up being a wasted pick. You have minimum innings pitched, so you will be forced to start several pitchers. One pitcher is not enough. It is too much of a guessing game to assume you will get solid pitchers later in the draft. Chances are the "sleepers" you target will be targeted by other owners. I am one of the few who usually has 3 pitchers by round 11.


Just for reference, I came out of the last two drafts with the following core guys on my staffs and ended up in terrible shape:

2012:
Felix Hernandez
Zach Greinke
Daniel Hudson*
Max Scherzer*
Andrew Bailey*
Matt Thornton*
Brandon League
Addison Reed
Vinnie Pestano
Tyler Clippard

2011:
Cliff Lee
Zach Greinke
Jonathan Sanchez*
Matt Garza*
Colby Lewis*
Joe Nathan*
David Aardsma
Brandon League
Aroldis Chapman
Chris Sale

These staffs were not just bad, they were terrible (the guys with the *'s really wet the bed for me) but I felt decent about both of them leaving the draft so I am thinking I can stand some real improvement in the system I am using to evaluate these guys.


Did you hit the innings cap in 2011 or 2012? Those staffs seem really RP heavy to me.


I hit right at the limit in both years and made moves throughout the season. Both seasons I largely stuck with the underperforming starters like Daniel Hudson and Matt Garza start after start waiting for them to turn around for the first part of the season and then made switches to FAs who were performing better which ultimately brought me from the bottom of the league to the 3-4 point range in categories like ERA and WHIP. I come out of the draft RP heavy to try to get ahead of the curve on closer movement (with guys like League, Pestano, Reed, Chapman, Sale, etc. being gambles on potential closers who didn't own the job on day 1) and throughout the year I will play guys like Clippard or Thornton to try to help my ratios and K/INN since you start 9 pitchers of any kind every day.
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Re: Strategy for Building a Pitching Staff - Ideas?

Postby kab21 » Tue Mar 05, 2013 9:48 pm

Ender wrote:Some people call them soft aces. Guys who put up not quite ace like numbers but have some sort of dependable track record and in most cases are young enough they could take that step into becoming an ace. I'd rather draft Price the year he becomes an ace than Price the year after basically, that is where I feel the value is. Gallardo as an example has put up just below ace numbers for a few years now, he puts up ace quality stretches each year but can't maintain a full season of it, he is only 27 and if he ever finds that one notch better control he can easily match one of those ace quality guys. That is the type I like to target.


Completely agree. Load up on pitchers in the 50-100 range in drafts. This is where the great value is. I'm not against taking pitchers earlier but I prefer several ace-lites instead of one stud.
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Re: Strategy for Building a Pitching Staff - Ideas?

Postby AHF » Wed Mar 06, 2013 12:17 pm

ESPN just posted their theory for staff building:

http://insider.espn.go.com/fantasy/base ... fting-them
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