avoid: Felix, CC, Weaver, Lincecum, Sale -there's actually a lot of guys that I'm leery about, but all of these guys have declining FB velocity, some have declining skills (lincecum, halladay - not buying bouncebacks), are an injury waiting to happen (CC, Sale elbows). Felix's K% and SwStr% are up, but he still worries me with his velocity, mileage at that price tag.
target: Samardzija, Homer Bailey, Scherzer, Gio, Matt Moore - all of these guys have seen FB velocity increase last yr, with the exception of Moore who completed his first full season as a starter. Most of these guys have 9+ k/9 ratios, with Bailey being the only non-strikeout asset as a sleeper. Scherzer's 2nd half last year carried me. Gio and The Shark are improving command and BB%. This group could have me pulling my hair out, but I'll risk it with the upside, and anchor my team with offense.
What are some guys you are avoiding/targeting, and why?
Timmy is actually someone I am targeting...no girly hair, contract year + he is going to be facing other team's number 3 starters this year. I agree on Felix and CC, I think the innings finally catch up with them.
Max and Homer should be great buys this year. Madbum will be overlooked with his bad postseason so he should be a good buy. Darvish and Parker are also interesting with all those Astro matchups now.
The kid is a country-strong beast. He's just 24 and is on;y going to get better.. I think he has a good shot at outperforming his teammate Cain to be the ace of that staff.....which makes MadBum a bargain since he is being drafted a full round-and-a-half later than Cain.
(don't get me wrong....I am not knocking Cain....I think he is great and he is a good value where he is being drafted)
Sabathia has an MDP of 62. I'm a little concerned about his elbow but this seems ok (a close eye on his spring training though). Funny story about being concerned about pitchers with heavy workloads. I traded CC for Webb in a keeper about 5 years ago because I thought CC was being overworked. I no longer concern myself with veteran workloads for veterans.
Felix - MDP 30 - I'm buying him if I'm taking a pitcher that early.
Sale - MDP 68 - People are right to be concerned but I think this ranking takes that concern into affect. I'll buy at this point in the draft.
Weaver - MDP 43 - Maybe but I'm not too thrilled with his disappearing K rate
Bumgarner - MDP 56 - I want him on my team. that is all.
Dickey - MDP 65 - I do not trust him at all. a novelty pitch with a >6 K/9 season only once while moving to the AL East
Samardzija - MDP 126 - tough call. Great K:BB last year but he it's a one season sample and I don't really trust it. Probably not enough upside at this point in the draft.
timmy - MDP 122 - I would definitely take him instead of Jeff Alphabet.
Scherzer, Moore and Gio all seem like guys I would target in the 50-100 area. that's where I like to build my staff.
One to add is Mat latos at 91. Cueto doesn't K quite enough but he's another guy that I might grab in the 90's.
Chris Sale will probably be injured by July as will his teammate, Peavy. In fact, I'd be willing to take a surprise gamble that the White Sox will finish in dead last place this year.
Robin Ventura's abuse of his pitching staff is alarming. I remember checking Peavy's stat line and seeing that he threw 125 pitches. Wasn't working on a no hitter or perfect game. YOU DON'T DO THAT TO INJURY PRONE PITCHERS. You know ehre they say that the manager doesn't matter? Well that's not always true. I am going to nominate SALE/PEAVY in the Auction leagues this year and get people to blow their money on them.
As per, Jeff Spellcheck required. Definitely wortha gamble. IIRC he's got the 4th or 5th highest avg velocity. His team isn't great but he should still be ok and pick up 12-15 wins with an ERA in the low 3's.