David Wright vs. Ryan Zimmerman

[rjforlife]

I have an open spot at third in my keeper league and have been giving these two a hard look, and I just can't explain why Wright is costing so much more than Zimmerman. I compiled 11 different projection sets, some great some not so great, but the results look where they should be:

Wright: 22 HR, 93 RBI, 90 R, 15 SB, .288 AVG
Zimm: 25 HR, 91 RBI, 86 R, 5 SB, 286 AVG

The differences are subtle, but added together they do bring some meaning. I think you can reasonably call HR/RBI/AVG a wash altogether, so with Wright overall you gain ~5 R, 10 SB.

When I similarly compiled suggested auction prices from various sources as well as average costs from Yahoo/ESPN, Wright comes out to an average cost of $24, Zimmerman $17. Now I am not a baseball math genius, but I am fairly certain that a difference of 5 runs and 10 steals does not equate to a $7 difference in prices.

So my question is, where is the disconnect, and can anyone convince me that I should be targeting Wright instead of Zimmerman? As it stands, if I can get Zimmerman from close to that $17 number, he seems to be a great bargain.

[Pogotheostrich]

My best guess is that reliability is factored in. Zimmerman can't seem to stay healthy.

[J35J]

My best guess is that reliability is factored in. Zimmerman can't seem to stay healthy.

Yup, Zimmerman is currently recovering from shoulder surgery.

Surgery Date 2012-10-25 Shoulder Surgery/Arthritic Bone
Surgery Date 2011-05-03 Abdomen Surgery/Rectus Abdominis
No surgery but had Shoulder Cartilage/Labrum issues in 2008 as well.


Wright had back issues in '11 but his healthy '12 puts those worries behind him for the most part.

[jeffmerk]

If they were the same price, I'd take Wright but with a $7 difference I'd probably roll the dice on Zimmerman.

[stevethumb]

I doubt that there are too many leagues that wright will go for $24 and Zimmerman for $17 ... more like $28 for Wright and $21 for immerman

[AHF]

Zimmerman has burned me too many times the past couple seasons to go to that well again for any comparable price.

I held him for half the season last year and he was beyond worthless. Then I dropped him and he took off like a rocket. It doesn't endear him to me from an emotional perspective.

[Kimbos Beard]

You pay for Wright's health. Zimmerman probably has as much talent, maybe even more, but he seems to always have a hard time staying on the field.

[Ender]

I'll take the over on that Wright projection for AVG as well because there are contextual reasons why he hit poorly in 2011 and it seems like more of an outlier. The main reason though is Zimmerman scares me with his health. Bad shoulders are a really scary thing for a hitter.

[horatio]

I held him for half the season last year and he was beyond worthless. Then I dropped him and he took off like a rocket. It doesn't endear him to me from an emotional perspective.

That's my experience exactly. I'm looking for Headley, Sandoval, or Aramis as much better values over Wright and Zimm.