With the fourth pick... - Fantasy Baseball Cafe 2014 Fantasy Baseball Cafe
100% Deposit Bonus for Cafe Members!

Return to Baseball Leftovers

With the fourth pick...

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

Who do you take with the fourth pick in a re-draft?

Matt Kemp
13
24%
Andrew McCutchen
3
5%
Robinson Cano
34
62%
Albert Pujols
2
4%
Other
3
5%
 
Total votes : 55

Re: With the fourth pick...

Postby khm7x » Sat Mar 02, 2013 4:59 pm

He's averaged about 10-15 on the player rater over the last several years, so it obviously must have something to do with position + reliability. He has a definite cap and it's not top 5. JMO of course, but I'd take Kemp all day at #4, a guy who I consider to be relatively safe even with the shoulder (no DL stints in the prior 4 years) and could easily put up a season that wins you the league.
khm7x
Little League Legend
Little League Legend


Posts: 22
Joined: 24 Mar 2008
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: With the fourth pick...

Postby bigh0rt » Sat Mar 02, 2013 5:09 pm

khm7x wrote:He's averaged about 10-15 on the player rater over the last several years, so it obviously must have something to do with position + reliability. He has a definite cap and it's not top 5. JMO of course, but I'd take Kemp all day at #4, a guy who I consider to be relatively safe even with the shoulder (no DL stints in the prior 4 years) and could easily put up a season that wins you the league.

No he (Kemp) can't. That's the point. Your Top 5 picks, individually, don't make the difference between winning your league and not. They put you in the conversation. There's not enough upside beyond expectation to give you the boost you're suggesting. If you're taking Kemp with the 4th Pick, you've got high expectations for his production. How much more would he have to exceed that to "win you the league" as you suggest? The short answer is he can't. Nobody in Round 1 can. You need the safest, best production available here. And Cano has proven to be stronger in that respect than Kemp. Although I do think it's somewhat closer than some others may.
Image
bigh0rt
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicCafe WriterGraphics ExpertMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeInnovative MemberCafe MusketeerWeb SupporterPick 3 Weekly Winner
Posts: 24818
(Past Year: 348)
Joined: 3 Jun 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Crowding The Plate

Re: With the fourth pick...

Postby Ender » Sat Mar 02, 2013 9:51 pm

khm7x wrote:He's averaged about 10-15 on the player rater over the last several years, so it obviously must have something to do with position + reliability. He has a definite cap and it's not top 5. JMO of course, but I'd take Kemp all day at #4, a guy who I consider to be relatively safe even with the shoulder (no DL stints in the prior 4 years) and could easily put up a season that wins you the league.



Where does he average if you take out the guys who can't do it year after year though. Probably something like 5 or 6. Kemp can't win you a league drafted #4, it simply is not going to happen. Back when I got him in the late 2nd round he may have won me a league or two, but not at pick #4 instead of Cano. He is moving into the age where he wont' run as much most likely especially considering the injury. He is probably giving up 20 pts of average or so to Cano. The power really isn't that much different over their careers though Kemp's has been more erratic. I just don't know what I'm getting with Kemp and I have to discount him a few spots for that. I don't know from a health standpoint or a production standpoint.
Ender
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

CafeholicFantasy Expert
Posts: 7733
Joined: 30 Apr 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: With the fourth pick...

Postby AussieDodger » Sat Mar 02, 2013 10:08 pm

Talk about offering a handful of land-mines for this pick :-°

Pujols - Seems to be on an obvious slide. 2012: 3 months of .900+ OPS and an .800, .735 and .570(!!!)
Also, it's March 1 and he hasn't been cleared to run yet. Pass

Cano - Positive: He is a LHB hitting in a LHB HR heaven. He seems healthy.
Negative: LHP figured him out in 2012 (.239/.309/.337). He offers barely any speed. Do you want to bench your 1st round pick against LHP? Nope, pass.

Kemp - At the moment shoulder surgery seems to be the one that wipes players careers out at the highest rate. This makes Kemp kinda scary for 2013. He's just become active in spring training, so he won't miss any time. A bad hamstring knocked him out in May/June last year, but he came back and had a 6 steal month, so that seems OK. He's a gamble-y pick, if he's healthy he could give Trout a serious run for his money. But I'm not taking him at 4.

McCutchen - This is who I'm going for. Power, speed, BB/K. 2013 will be his age-26 season, so he's still at the beginning of his peak.
His CS look bad, and usually teams start taking SBO opportunities off players who are that unsuccessful.....but they were mostly in July/August where he went 1-7 in steals. Business as usual resumed in September, 5-1.
ATTENTION LONG-TIMERS! NEW FBC: http://fbc2.freeforums.net/
AussieDodger
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicCafe WriterEagle Eye
Posts: 11363
(Past Year: 25)
Joined: 22 Jan 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: What do you mean, Flash Gordon approaching?

Re: With the fourth pick...

Postby GiantsFan14 » Sun Mar 03, 2013 1:36 am

I would say mccutchen is a relatively safe pick as long as you don't expect him to repeat that average. I'd put him closer to .290, still a solid 5 cat guy though and the risk seems low. I have him late first round, but wouldn't really fault anyone for taking him earlier.
Image
25
@FBC_GiantsFan14 on Twitter
GiantsFan14
Baseball Scribe
Baseball Scribe

User avatar
EditorCafeholicResponse TeamCafe WriterGraphics ExpertMock(ing) DrafterWeb SupporterPick 3 Weekly Winner
Posts: 14141
(Past Year: 427)
Joined: 12 Mar 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: BUSTER HATH ARRIVED

Re: With the fourth pick...

Postby TheRock » Sun Mar 03, 2013 3:23 am

The 4th spot sucks, trade down. ;-)

Cano
We've seen his ceiling, hopefully he comes close to it again. Not a lot of risk here, and if you're a position scarcity guy, he's your man. We didn't specify league size and format, all the leagues I play in position scarcity isn't an issue. But for me, first round you take the best player. And that's:

Kemp
Here's a handy way to compare Cano and Kemp. Take whatever you're projecting for Cano, and add 20-25 steals. That's Matt Kemp. Reports now are that he should be fine for opening day, so I'm leaning Kemp.

McCutchen
Cutch's huge year last season came in large part from a .375 BABIP, up from .290 the year before. His strike out rate went up, his walk rate went down, his HR/FB rate jumped way up. After the all-star break he went back to being a .290 hitting 20/20 outfielder. Is that who you want as your first pick? Take him at 4? In our cafe league I had the 8th pick and he slipped to me. I let him slip to 9th.

Pujols
Certainly belongs in the first round. Should hit at least .300, at least 30 HR, 100 or so runs and rbis. That's not the 40 HR and 120 rbis he used to give us, so perhaps you choose someone else at 4. I can see taking Pujols here if you're concerned about Kemp's health. But if we're talking about someone being healthy, the guy to talk about at 4 is:

Votto
Where did Pujols' formerly elite numbers go? Well apparently Votto stole his mojo. The numbers Votto put up before his injury last year were simply other-worldly. If he seems healthy and you don't mind rolling the dice a bit, Votto might even belong in the top 3. Am I allowed to say that? :-o
Image
TheRock
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
CafeholicCafe WriterMock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 3055
(Past Year: 6)
Joined: 16 Apr 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: America's Heartland

Re: With the fourth pick...

Postby Ender » Sun Mar 03, 2013 8:08 am

Nice writeup TheRock though I don't think Pujols is a lock for .300 anymore.
Ender
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

CafeholicFantasy Expert
Posts: 7733
Joined: 30 Apr 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: With the fourth pick...

Postby jcook3127 » Sun Mar 03, 2013 8:46 pm

TheRock wrote:The 4th spot sucks, trade down. ;-)

Cano
We've seen his ceiling, hopefully he comes close to it again. Not a lot of risk here, and if you're a position scarcity guy, he's your man. We didn't specify league size and format, all the leagues I play in position scarcity isn't an issue. But for me, first round you take the best player. And that's:

Kemp
Here's a handy way to compare Cano and Kemp. Take whatever you're projecting for Cano, and add 20-25 steals. That's Matt Kemp. Reports now are that he should be fine for opening day, so I'm leaning Kemp.

McCutchen
Cutch's huge year last season came in large part from a .375 BABIP, up from .290 the year before. His strike out rate went up, his walk rate went down, his HR/FB rate jumped way up. After the all-star break he went back to being a .290 hitting 20/20 outfielder. Is that who you want as your first pick? Take him at 4? In our cafe league I had the 8th pick and he slipped to me. I let him slip to 9th.

Pujols
Certainly belongs in the first round. Should hit at least .300, at least 30 HR, 100 or so runs and rbis. That's not the 40 HR and 120 rbis he used to give us, so perhaps you choose someone else at 4. I can see taking Pujols here if you're concerned about Kemp's health. But if we're talking about someone being healthy, the guy to talk about at 4 is:

Votto
Where did Pujols' formerly elite numbers go? Well apparently Votto stole his mojo. The numbers Votto put up before his injury last year were simply other-worldly. If he seems healthy and you don't mind rolling the dice a bit, Votto might even belong in the top 3. Am I allowed to say that? :-o


All of that seems fine, but 'compare' Votto and Cano.

Average - Wash (or slight Votto)
Steals - Wash (lets be honest)
Runs - Wash (or Slight Cano)
HR - Wash (both are 2B machines, Votto would hit more in the same ballpark, but in reality we're projecting about 2-3 difference here)
RBI- Wash (86 RBI pace for Votto last year if you give him 575 at bats..Cano's RBIs were down as well...it's just a wash man)

So to sit there and hint that Votto might belong in the top 3 but that Cano is a pass for #4, when he plays every game every year and his ballpark is tailored to helping his power numbers seems pretty biased to me. All of which is to say nothing of position scarcity, which you can waive off if you want, but it certainly is at least a small part of the equation in this scenario..more than enough to be a tiebreaker for me. Cano is my pick at 4.
Why don't they just get a house that's already painted?
jcook3127
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor

User avatar

Posts: 646
Joined: 2 Feb 2007
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: With the fourth pick...

Postby Slayer Rules » Sat Mar 23, 2013 5:50 pm

Any new thoughts here?

I still don't know what to do. My latest thought is just Take Votto if none of the top 3 drop down. I play in an OPS roto and an AVG H2H and I think he's a great play in both formats.
Slayer Rules
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor

User avatar

Posts: 748
Joined: 6 Sep 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball

Previous

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: unioreimi and 8 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Today's Games
Saturday, Oct. 25
(All times are EST, weather icons show forecast for game time)

Kansas City at San Francisco
(8:07 pm)

  • Fantasy Baseball
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact