Aroldis Chapman

[Izenhart]

The reds are supposedly going to limit his innings this year. People are expeting it to be in the 150-160 range, so his ceiling is limited. Think Strasburg last year but slightly less. But that's just the general consensus on his 'ceiling'. I think his walk rate and lack of a third good pitch will be the dealbreaker as far as his stats go. Spring training will say a lot for this guy I think. What numbers are you expecting him to put up this year?

162ip, 2.89era, 13w, 4l, 211k, 1.22whip

[Element]

His spring stats mean nothing to me. Power pitchers in general take 4-8 weeks before they're at peak velocity-wise. It's not usually until the third or fourth time out where any pitcher really starts to mix in break balls ... and they may just be rollers at that point. Or, they could be working on that specific pitch and won't mix pitches at all. Spring stats in general are worthless. I like to watch as many games as possible though. This is where old fashion scouting could give you a leg up over looking at the numbers.

There was a period last summer where Chapman was topping out in the mid 90's and he was getting knocked around a bit. There is no way that he will be able to maintain 100 mph. Unless he comes up with a third pitch this spring I have no hopes for him being able to be a reliable starter. I could see the walk rate going through the roof and I could see him breaking down by the ASB. The only way that I see myself owning Chapman in 2013 is if the Reds start him in the rotation and I acquire him for peanuts hoping that he gets a trip back to the 9th inning.

[Pogotheostrich]

162ip, 2.89era, 13w, 4l, 211k, 1.22whip

That seems beyond optomistic. No way his K rate stays that high being a SP.

Best guess... 150 IP, 10 W, 3.50 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 165 K

Not sure he can handle the workload though.

[wvmattk25]

I'm a Reds fan so I take the optimistic approach. I say his line looks like this:

160 IP 13 Wins 2.90 ERA 170 K's

He was a starter before they put him in the bullpen so I think he can handle to work load.

[mzu]

Can MLB teams stop babying older pitchers?

Yes younger guys straight from highschool and college should be on a limit but the guys that have played in the majors/minors for 5+ years know the difference between tired and sore.

Champman should be fine, if they are going to limit, we not limit when he says he go anymore? And to comment on his K rate, he did strike out 125 in 95 innings in AAA.

[Boss1022]

A sub-3.00 is a best-case scenario, and certainly not what I'd expect. Provided he is in fact in the rotation, I'd draft him looking for ~11 wins, ~3.50ERA , ~1.25WHIP, & ~150Ks. Though he definitely has the talent to exceed those if everything comes together for him.