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With the first pick...

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Who do you take with the first pick in a re-draft?

Mike Trout
13
16%
Ryan Braun
42
51%
Miguel Cabrera
27
33%
 
Total votes : 82

Re: With the first pick...

Postby Urban Cohorts » Sun Mar 03, 2013 3:34 pm

J35J wrote:
Urban Cohorts wrote:Mike Trout is being moved to LF, which is far less demanding than 3B.

Hmmm, I guess it depends on what you mean by demanding...but the OF is more demanding on the body than INF. All the running, diving from a full sprint and running into walls is worse than what you get in the INF. INF contains skill positions and quick twitch responses but to me they aren't as demanding on the body as the OF.

And the majority of my baseball years have been in the infield.


I could be wrong and don't have any data to back it up, but I'd imagine that (as a big guy) having to react much quicker could lead to a bad dive or pulled muscle. I don't have the rates and severity of fielding related injuries in 3B vs corner OF.

I think it probably comes down to the individual and how hard they go at it. And all things being even I'd bet on the younger guy staying healthy.
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Re: With the first pick...

Postby Izenhart » Sun Mar 03, 2013 3:35 pm

Brett Lawrie plays 3B like he's an OF
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Re: With the first pick...

Postby Ender » Sun Mar 03, 2013 3:52 pm

J35J wrote:
Urban Cohorts wrote:Mike Trout is being moved to LF, which is far less demanding than 3B.

Hmmm, I guess it depends on what you mean by demanding...but the OF is more demanding on the body than INF. All the running, diving from a full sprint and running into walls is worse than what you get in the INF. INF contains skill positions and quick twitch responses but to me they aren't as demanding on the body as the OF.

And the majority of my baseball years have been in the infield.



This is completely wrong. The aging nexus and injury nexus has been pretty well established. C/SS/2B/3B/CF/RF/LF/1B. 3B tend to age very poorly, especially bigger ones. Trout is in about the best position you could ever want right now for a player long term. 3B is a much more demanding positional the 1B is. Also my list wasn't meant to suggest there is a ton of risk in any of these things, just that silly things like worrying about injuries that aren't very likely mean more than the odds of Braun being suspended, it is a complete non issue. If they were neck in neck in value maybe but Braun is a good $4 or $5 more valuable even if they repeat last years stats which I don't think MCab will since it was by far his career year.
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Re: With the first pick...

Postby J35J » Sun Mar 03, 2013 4:36 pm

Ender wrote:
J35J wrote:
Urban Cohorts wrote:Mike Trout is being moved to LF, which is far less demanding than 3B.

Hmmm, I guess it depends on what you mean by demanding...but the OF is more demanding on the body than INF. All the running, diving from a full sprint and running into walls is worse than what you get in the INF. INF contains skill positions and quick twitch responses but to me they aren't as demanding on the body as the OF.

And the majority of my baseball years have been in the infield.



This is completely wrong. The aging nexus and injury nexus has been pretty well established. C/SS/2B/3B/CF/RF/LF/1B. 3B tend to age very poorly, especially bigger ones. Trout is in about the best position you could ever want right now for a player long term. 3B is a much more demanding positional the 1B is. Also my list wasn't meant to suggest there is a ton of risk in any of these things, just that silly things like worrying about injuries that aren't very likely mean more than the odds of Braun being suspended, it is a complete non issue. If they were neck in neck in value maybe but Braun is a good $4 or $5 more valuable even if they repeat last years stats which I don't think MCab will since it was by far his career year.


Aging nexus I can buy because of the fact that the INF is much more skill and quickness related, both of which go down hill as you age. I'm not buying the injury nexus though. At least in regards to me personally and any player I've played with or against. And I'm not arguing for the players above, just saying in general. MCab isn't much of an athlete and Trout is one of the best athletes out there and still just a baby so obviously comparing those two is silly.
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Re: With the first pick...

Postby West » Sun Mar 03, 2013 8:35 pm

Ender wrote:
This is completely wrong. The aging nexus and injury nexus has been pretty well established. C/SS/2B/3B/CF/RF/LF/1B. 3B tend to age very poorly, especially bigger ones. Trout is in about the best position you could ever want right now for a player long term. 3B is a much more demanding positional the 1B is. Also my list wasn't meant to suggest there is a ton of risk in any of these things, just that silly things like worrying about injuries that aren't very likely mean more than the odds of Braun being suspended, it is a complete non issue. If they were neck in neck in value maybe but Braun is a good $4 or $5 more valuable even if they repeat last years stats which I don't think MCab will since it was by far his career year.


Who established this? You? Show me a convincing study. It doesn't exist. I have yet to see anything but anecdotal evidence that third basemen don't age well in comparison to other positions. It doesn't hold water and it's a silly idea. Mike Schmidt, George Brett, Wade Boggs were all productive into their late 30's. Chipper Jones produced three seasons of over 1000 OPS from ages 34-36. All players see a production drop off as they get older. Third base is just like any other position.

It's also likely that Cabrera will get DH days and perhaps some time at 1B should Fielder get injured. He will also probably play 1B again in his career, if he or Fielder is moved.

LF is more demanding than 3B. Whoever is arguing against this never played baseball. You have to dive maybe once or make a running throw once or twice a game. In LF you run more, will have to flat out sprint for a ball several times a game, are more at risk for collisions with other players, crash into walls, make throws to home, etc, etc. Probably the most physically challenging thing you will ever see at 3B is a bunt. I can't remember the last time I saw someone get injured fielding a bunt. At the end of the day we are talking about a guy with ZERO injury history. So this is all a non issue. I'd be much more worried about the 50-75 times a year that Trout is going to slide headfirst. That's a good way to break a thumb.

I'm pretty close on Braun vs. Cabrera, but Trout is going to be a huge disappointment for people that draft him 1st overall. 2012 was his career year. Have fun paying for 2012 numbers.
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Re: With the first pick...

Postby Ender » Mon Mar 04, 2013 10:14 pm

Now this new Braun rumor is much more scary and might make me consider Cabrera #1. This one is new and has a chance of a suspension even if it is only in the rumor stage still.
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Re: With the first pick...

Postby Izenhart » Tue Mar 05, 2013 6:34 am

Ender wrote:Now this new Braun rumor is much more scary and might make me consider Cabrera #1. This one is new and has a chance of a suspension even if it is only in the rumor stage still.


I'm going to agree, the source got Melky right, I'm bumping Braun down some and would choose MCab at this point. I'm really getting sick of this PED/roid BS
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Re: With the first pick...

Postby Ender » Tue Mar 05, 2013 8:36 am

Izenhart wrote:
Ender wrote:Now this new Braun rumor is much more scary and might make me consider Cabrera #1. This one is new and has a chance of a suspension even if it is only in the rumor stage still.


I'm going to agree, the source got Melky right, I'm bumping Braun down some and would choose MCab at this point. I'm really getting sick of this PED/roid BS


Though to be fair if I had to pick 30 guys in MLB that might get busted for PEDs I'd definitely have MCab in the list so I guess everyone is kind of scary with the new blood testing. 112 games of Braun + 50 games of Justin Maxwell still out earns Cano so the farthest I can see dropping him is #3.
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Re: With the first pick...

Postby BJSFAN123 » Mon Mar 11, 2013 1:34 am

I'm a HUGE Braun fan, I think he is by far the best 1st overall pick..however, it seems pretty obvious that he has clearly been taking PEDs. First the failed test, then being on the recent clinic list. I don't think that clinic list was some joke either, former employees have stated that they knew their business was selling PEDS and Gonzalez's father even admitted to Gio going there..but oh, it was for "to lose weight" - I guess he just happened to end up at a steroid shop in Miami that other athletes are known to attend. Some of the other names on the list were guys like Colon and Melky, known PED users.

Now there is the whole Joe Bisceglie business, how legit his source is none of us know, but he did call the Melky suspension.

I have the 1st overall pick and don't draft for two weeks, but I'm certainly worried about taking Braun and all of a sudden hearing that he has been suspended a week later.

Then there is the other factor, even if Braun doesn't get suspended, I'm still assuming that he has taken PEDs for the majority of his career, how will it impact his numbers the longer he goes without his candy? None of us really know if it would at all, but then again, he and other players are willing to take the risk of being suspended and tarnishing their reputations, so they clearly think it helps.

I'm really torn, because I feel like Braun is clearly the 1st overall without all of this ped talk surrounding him, but it is still a little risky right now.

Here's a question, if Braun was suspended, would it have to be from failing a test last season? I'd have a hard time imagining that he'd still take the risk after almost being caught. Would the appeals process really take that long though? Assuming he failed the test in September or October if true.
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Re: With the first pick...

Postby HybridTheory » Fri Mar 15, 2013 5:40 pm

Uh-oh....

From Twitter: MLB suspends Cesar Carrillo, found in the Biogenesis documents and a close friend of Ryan Braun's, for 100 games.
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