Ender wrote:I think the odds of Braun being suspended are about the same as MCab suddenly failing a test, almost 0%. The test was tainted no matter whether it was actually positive or not and this whole biogenisis clinic is probably who leaked the test results in the first place since it was 'someone they consulted in Florida'. This is beyond a non story for fantasy baseball standpoint. Guess it is a good way to get Braun cheap though.
I agree that it's mostly a non-story from a fantasy perspective. It does add a small amount of risk to his profile this year, enough to bump him down to #2 for me, but probably not for others. You can't argue with the numbers. It's also very unlikely that he gets any sort of suspension.
All that said, his image is clearly tarnished for many and he is starting to get a bit of an A-Rod reputation with his team of PR experts and his lawyer coached statements. I just don't like the guy anymore. Doesn't mean he's not a #1 overall pick. A-Rod put up top 10 numbers for years.
Here is the order of things I worry about with Braun and MCab.
1. Braun's intercostal muscle. This is something he has to manage all year round and you never know when it is going to flair up on him.
2. MCab's weight. There just aren't many 3B that have survived long while weighing anywhere near what MCab does, his knees are gonna give at some point.
3. Random stat fluctuations or injuries derailing one of their seasons.
4. One of them getting suspended for steroids which is less likely than some random injury.
I agree with #1 and #3 is just par for the course for any player. While #4 is not likely, it is pretty obvious that Braun is more at risk than Miggy in this department.
#2 is really a stretch here. Miggy has no history of knee problems (or any injury problems) so I don't see where you're getting this from. I agree that 3B is different from 1B in terms of injury risk but it is not enough of a difference to downgrade Cabrera. Added to that is the fact that he has zero history of injury problems which basically makes him the safest bet out there.
I think it's funny that you bring up the weight thing every year with Miggy, as if once a player gets over a certain number he is suddenly at risk. Did you know that Mike Trout came into camp at 240 (same weight as Miggy) and he is 3 inches shorter AND he plays center field, a much more demanding position. Why aren't you talking about him?