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With the first pick...

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Who do you take with the first pick in a re-draft?

Mike Trout
13
16%
Ryan Braun
42
51%
Miguel Cabrera
27
33%
 
Total votes : 82

Re: With the first pick...

Postby Ender » Tue Feb 26, 2013 11:38 am

I feel kinda the opposite. After Braun and Cabrera I think the mid 1st round is really shaky this year. McCutchen could be a pretty big failure. Pujols, Votto, Kemp all are bouncing back from injuries with two of them getting late starts to spring training because they aren't fully healed yet. I would draft Trout early but I wouldn't be comfortable with it. I will stress again that the Braun thing is a complete non story. If there was any thought that he might get suspended the Brewers would have made a move because they have no viable corner OF on the roster. Roenicke doesn't seem concerned, Melvin hasn't been, it has been a non story locally and if there was any real proof of anything ESPN would have fallen over themselves to leak it.

Cano is probably the one other safe guy in the early to mid round but even he kinda bugs me this year with his increased swinging strike rates for 3 years in a row and contact rates overall getting worse. It certainly doesn't look like it from the numbers but he is in soft decline right now but it will take a few years to chip away at his value enough to not have him in the 1st round.

I actually really like the 8th to 10th or so pick where I hopefully can get Fielder who is being underrated this year probably because people don't realize he is a legit .300+ hitter. Now that he has a real hitter behind him his R will go back up to the 90s again too and 30 is probably the low end for HR which fluctuate for him a lot year to year.

The 14th pick was pretty ugly when I got that in the draft. The late 1st and early 2nd round is a whole bunch of question mark players and you are just hoping you pick the correct ones. Very few solid with upside type guys which is what I like to go after early.
Last edited by Ender on Tue Feb 26, 2013 11:48 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: With the first pick...

Postby HybridTheory » Tue Feb 26, 2013 11:42 am

I'm torn here too. We have a 3 man keeper league, but top 15 are not allowed to keep. I have the 1st pick, so Braun, Miggy, Trout are all available. My keepers are Longoria, Kinsler, Zimmerman. Braun scares me a tad, not sure what I'll do yet.
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Re: With the first pick...

Postby jfg » Sat Mar 02, 2013 3:49 pm

If there were a guy who could give me Braun's average and 10-15 more HR without Braun's steals I'd take him. But, there isn't. Steals are a dime a dozen this year, early picks should be used on drafting HR.
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Re: With the first pick...

Postby West » Sat Mar 02, 2013 6:52 pm

I'm taking Cab and I don't buy a word Braun says. At some point it will all catch up to him.
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Re: With the first pick...

Postby Ender » Sat Mar 02, 2013 9:14 pm

I think the odds of Braun being suspended are about the same as MCab suddenly failing a test, almost 0%. The test was tainted no matter whether it was actually positive or not and this whole biogenisis clinic is probably who leaked the test results in the first place since it was 'someone they consulted in Florida'. This is beyond a non story for fantasy baseball standpoint. Guess it is a good way to get Braun cheap though.

Here is the order of things I worry about with Braun and MCab.

1. Braun's intercostal muscle. This is something he has to manage all year round and you never know when it is going to flair up on him.
2. MCab's weight. There just aren't many 3B that have survived long while weighing anywhere near what MCab does, his knees are gonna give at some point.
3. Random stat fluctuations or injuries derailing one of their seasons.
4. One of them getting suspended for steroids which is less likely than some random injury.
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Re: With the first pick...

Postby West » Sun Mar 03, 2013 10:56 am

Ender wrote:I think the odds of Braun being suspended are about the same as MCab suddenly failing a test, almost 0%. The test was tainted no matter whether it was actually positive or not and this whole biogenisis clinic is probably who leaked the test results in the first place since it was 'someone they consulted in Florida'. This is beyond a non story for fantasy baseball standpoint. Guess it is a good way to get Braun cheap though.


I agree that it's mostly a non-story from a fantasy perspective. It does add a small amount of risk to his profile this year, enough to bump him down to #2 for me, but probably not for others. You can't argue with the numbers. It's also very unlikely that he gets any sort of suspension.
All that said, his image is clearly tarnished for many and he is starting to get a bit of an A-Rod reputation with his team of PR experts and his lawyer coached statements. I just don't like the guy anymore. Doesn't mean he's not a #1 overall pick. A-Rod put up top 10 numbers for years.


Here is the order of things I worry about with Braun and MCab.

1. Braun's intercostal muscle. This is something he has to manage all year round and you never know when it is going to flair up on him.
2. MCab's weight. There just aren't many 3B that have survived long while weighing anywhere near what MCab does, his knees are gonna give at some point.
3. Random stat fluctuations or injuries derailing one of their seasons.
4. One of them getting suspended for steroids which is less likely than some random injury.


I agree with #1 and #3 is just par for the course for any player. While #4 is not likely, it is pretty obvious that Braun is more at risk than Miggy in this department.

#2 is really a stretch here. Miggy has no history of knee problems (or any injury problems) so I don't see where you're getting this from. I agree that 3B is different from 1B in terms of injury risk but it is not enough of a difference to downgrade Cabrera. Added to that is the fact that he has zero history of injury problems which basically makes him the safest bet out there.

I think it's funny that you bring up the weight thing every year with Miggy, as if once a player gets over a certain number he is suddenly at risk. Did you know that Mike Trout came into camp at 240 (same weight as Miggy) and he is 3 inches shorter AND he plays center field, a much more demanding position. Why aren't you talking about him?
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Re: With the first pick...

Postby Urban Cohorts » Sun Mar 03, 2013 2:39 pm

West wrote:I think it's funny that you bring up the weight thing every year with Miggy, as if once a player gets over a certain number he is suddenly at risk. Did you know that Mike Trout came into camp at 240 (same weight as Miggy) and he is 3 inches shorter AND he plays center field, a much more demanding position. Why aren't you talking about him?


Mike Trout is being moved to LF, which is far less demanding than 3B. And even though Miggy is taller, Trout is 9 years younger. I'm less worried about the 21 year old LF than an over sized 30 year old playing 3B.

None of this means Miggy is going to get injured, but I'd bet on him being hurt in a fielding related injury more than Trout.

And it isn't uncommon for players to lose some weight in spring training. Trout doesn't appear to have the attitude problems of Pablo Sandoval, so maybe he drops down to 225ish before the season starts.
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Re: With the first pick...

Postby J35J » Sun Mar 03, 2013 3:20 pm

Urban Cohorts wrote:Mike Trout is being moved to LF, which is far less demanding than 3B.

Hmmm, I guess it depends on what you mean by demanding...but the OF is more demanding on the body than INF. All the running, diving from a full sprint and running into walls is worse than what you get in the INF. INF contains skill positions and quick twitch responses but to me they aren't as demanding on the body as the OF.

And the majority of my baseball years have been in the infield.
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