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Zack Cozart (SS - Cinci) 2013 Outlook

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Zack Cozart (SS - Cinci) 2013 Outlook

Postby Metropolitans » Sun Feb 24, 2013 5:55 pm

All things considered, his rookie campaign wasn't a complete bust, depending on where you begged him. 15 HRs out of a Rookie SS?!? I'll take that ANY DAY! His speed lacked a lot more than I was hoping but at least he was 100% on those 4 attempts. He scored a decent amount of Runs which is a plus bc it shows he's a good base runner (or just bc he batted leadoff maybe?)... His RBI numbers were Very Low, especially when u consider him having 15 HRs, 35 RBIs is very low which is largely due to him batting leadoff. His On-Base% was abysmal, especially for a leadoff man (.288), so I cant imagine Cincinnati keeping him at Leadoff unless he drastically improves his discipline at the plate. With that said, if he does drastically improve his OBP and he continues to leadoff, with his power, he could put up some pretty solid #s for a SS but he absolutely MUST run some more, even if he got his SB total up to 10-13. Couple that with his improving Power, for me, thatd be more than enough to boost him into top 10 SS for 2013. Obviously Billy Hamilton is the future Leadoff man for this franchise so I see them moving Cozart out of the leadoff spot, especially with his low OBP, he's more suited down in the lineup. But with his potential power, that isn't necessarily a bad thing at all.

This is just my observation, clearly those who watched him for frequently than I did will have a much more accurate opinion than mine. But this is what I took from Cozart's Rookie Campaign. I personally really like this kids future and view him as a solid sleeper at a very scarce position. His lack of speed from a generally speed-driven fantasy position is a huge concern but where he lacks in speed, he excels in power.

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Re: Zack Cozart (SS - Cinci) 2013 Outlook

Postby SpecialFNK » Sun Feb 24, 2013 6:30 pm

Choo is now leadoff for Cincinnati. Cozart looks to be batting way down in the order, either 7th or 8th, depending on where the catcher bats. I can't see him batting any higher than that. maybe a Reds lineup something like..
Choo, Phillips, Votto, Bruce, Ludwick, Frazier, Cozart, Hanigan/Meoraco.
that's going to cut into his R/RBI, and if he's batting 8th in front of the pitcher that's going to hurt his SB. if he's batting 7th he could have some good potential. he should be good for more than 15 HR. SB would be better out of the 7 spot than the 8 spot.
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Re: Zack Cozart (SS - Cinci) 2013 Outlook

Postby Havok1517 » Sun Feb 24, 2013 6:59 pm

I personally feel that Cozart is great utility guy on a good team though the Reds might not have a better option at SS since they moved Hamilton.
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Re: Zack Cozart (SS - Cinci) 2013 Outlook

Postby Montana168 » Sun Feb 24, 2013 10:40 pm

I like him as a sleeper a lot, however, he is merely one of my sleepers on my watch list but won't pickup until he starts to hit. I'm surprised that he only got 4 SB opportunities last year. He stole 30 bases in 2010 while only being caught 4 times. That year is clearly the outlier (other career high is 10), but he was extremely efficient on the base baths. But his inability to hit for much power (mostly a doubles hitter in the minors) combined with a poor average (that .300+ avg in 2011 in both the minors and majors looks like an outlier) has extremely deflated his value.

Could be this years Danny Espinosa. Or if he truly breaks out could be this years Ian Desmond. The price is certainly worth the upside if you have the roster space and/or the league is deep enough.
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Re: Zack Cozart (SS - Cinci) 2013 Outlook

Postby Ender » Sun Feb 24, 2013 10:56 pm

I really like Cozart the baseball player, I don't like him as much in fantasy though. As was already mentioned he just doesn't have a good shot at getting into a strong part of the lineup which will chip away at his R/RBI/SB too much. Maybe if Choo or Phillips get hurt and he moves to leadoff or #2 he might have some good value.
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Re: Zack Cozart (SS - Cinci) 2013 Outlook

Postby MashinSpuds » Mon Feb 25, 2013 5:38 pm

To me he looks like he'll be that Stephen Drew type of player; he may be just good enough to start eventually but never pan out to be a must-get fantasy option. For this year he is certainly worth a late flyer, but more like a wait-and-see on a deep bench type of flyer.
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Re: Zack Cozart (SS - Cinci) 2013 Outlook

Postby Element » Mon Feb 25, 2013 7:45 pm

Ender wrote:I really like Cozart the baseball player, I don't like him as much in fantasy though. As was already mentioned he just doesn't have a good shot at getting into a strong part of the lineup which will chip away at his R/RBI/SB too much. Maybe if Choo or Phillips get hurt and he moves to leadoff or #2 he might have some good value.


Agreed. He is a very good defender (at a premium position) that isn't a complete loss with the bat in his hands. That's extremely valuable to most organizations. In standard fantasy formats we only measure the offensive value. It's hard to get real excited about him. He was coming off of TJ surgery last year. So perhaps there is some additional pop in his bat. It's been mentioned though that he'll bat toward the bottom of the lineup though which won't provide the opportunity to post good counting stats. Best case scenario ... I see a JJ Hardy type.
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Re: Zack Cozart (SS - Cinci) 2013 Outlook

Postby Nerfherders » Mon Feb 25, 2013 8:46 pm

I have Cozart on a prospect roster and he's on the bubble as to callup or drop, especially being 27.

The amazing thing about his season last year is 35 RBI and 15 HR.

I checked in BR's player index - Of all qualified players (477 AB) with at least 15 HR, he had the fewest RBI. Also true for his 53 extra base hits. It's almost impossible to have 35 RBI on 15 HR unless youre a pinch hitter HR specialist.
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Re: Zack Cozart (SS - Cinci) 2013 Outlook

Postby wrveres » Tue Feb 26, 2013 2:50 am

Nerfherders wrote: It's almost impossible to have 35 RBI on 15 HR unless youre a pinch hitter HR specialist.

Adam Dunn early in his career was like that too.
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Re: Zack Cozart (SS - Cinci) 2013 Outlook

Postby Izenhart » Tue Feb 26, 2013 10:01 am

RBI anomalies

In 1987 Brook Jacoby hit .300 in 540 ABs (620 PAs), hit 32 bombs with 26 doubles and 4 triples and drove in... 69 runs.
In 2000 Luis Castillo hit .334 in 539 ABs (626 PAs), thats 180 hits, including 17 doubles, 3 triples and 2 home runs -- doubtful any were grand slams as he only drove in 17 runs.
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