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2013 Median Draft Position (MDP)

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Re: 2013 Median Draft Position (MDP)

Postby OBPlover » Sun Feb 24, 2013 4:30 am

Izenhart wrote:I agree with a lot of what ender says, which honestly worries me :-D we had very differing opinions last year...

BUT -- I do agree Justin Upton in the 1st round isn't the best call. He will face tough pitching maybe 20% of the time, let's not forget 1/3 of the game is now pitched by the bullpen. I may have drafted him in round 1 had he gone to another division, but the strength of schedule should knock him down some. I do believe his #23 ADP is kind of low, but I have no problem taking him mid to late round 2.

Here's my list of top 100 guys I won't touch based on their current ADP

1 Miguel Cabrera 2.0
5 Matt Kemp 5.9
7 Andrew McCutchen 7.7
11 Buster Posey 13.5
17 Troy Tulowitzki 16.8
20 Evan Longoria 21.3
21 Jose Reyes 23.4
22 David Wright 24.4
24 David Price 25.6
27 Ian Kinsler 29.9
29 Felix Hernandez 31.6
33 Adrian Gonzalez 34.4
38 Jacoby Ellsbury 40.9
41 Ryan Zimmerman 42.5
42 Chase Headley 42.5
44 Craig Kimbrel 45.3
51 Paul Goldschmidt 52.7
53 Ben Zobrist 54.6
54 Zack Greinke 56.5
55 B.J. Upton 56.7
56 Yadier Molina 57.0
61 R.A. Dickey 64.5
62 Yu Darvish 65.0
68 Aaron Hill 72.8
70 Matt Wieters 74.7
74 Michael Bourn 78.0
77 Elvis Andrus 79.2
78 Wilin Rosario 80.2
82 Pablo Sandoval 83.3
83 Jonathan Papelbon 84.3
84 Alex Gordon 84.7
88 Jason Motte 89.7
93 Eric Hosmer 97.0
94 Matt Moore 97.6
97 Austin Jackson 102.0

There's too many C's in the top 100 even for 2 C leagues... I'll draft a RP in the top 100 if he's Kimbrel-like but not at #44... 1B and 3B are too deep to reach early on... it's very rare a leadoff hitter without great power and speed are worth a top pick, especially like Bourne who is an OF... And I just feel a lot of these guys are flat out overrated (Mainly the MI like Zobrist, Hill, Reyes).... and Kinsler doesn't hit for AVG and drove in 60 runs last year yes he's 27 OA? I understand 2B/SS is very thin, which tricks people into thinking the top tier are good early round values. They aren't.


I like Ender too, don't get me wrong. I am just asking him to keep an open mind.

Anyways, I don't udnerstand your list. DOes that mean that say, you wouldn't take Alex Gordon at 84 because you project him to be 84.7?
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Re: 2013 Median Draft Position (MDP)

Postby Izenhart » Sun Feb 24, 2013 5:32 am

OBPlover wrote:I like Ender too, don't get me wrong. I am just asking him to keep an open mind.

Anyways, I don't udnerstand your list. DOes that mean that say, you wouldn't take Alex Gordon at 84 because you project him to be 84.7?


The numbers on the right are their Median Draft Position, copy/pasted from the OP's post.

I have Gordon around 120 on my list, he just seems too vanilla, not enough power or speed, don't like his lineup, etc. I just see about 30 other player's I'd want before him that are ranked lower, and a guy I rank comparably to (just below) him is going @ 202 on this list (Torii Hunter).
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Re: 2013 Median Draft Position (MDP)

Postby OBPlover » Sun Feb 24, 2013 5:49 am

What's your top 10? if you don't mind showing it.
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Re: 2013 Median Draft Position (MDP)

Postby Izenhart » Sun Feb 24, 2013 6:42 am

I'll go to 15, which happens to be Upton, since these are the 15 guys my sheet has valued at $30 or more for a 5x5 12 teamer.

1. Braun
2. Trout
3. Cabrera
4. Cano
5. Votto
6. Pujols
7. Fielder
8. Verlander
9. Kershaw
10. Hamilton
11. Cargo
12. Kemp
13. Strasburg
14. Bautista
15. Upton
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Re: 2013 Median Draft Position (MDP)

Postby Ender » Sun Feb 24, 2013 11:42 am

Take your top 15, realize I would never ever ever for any reason draft one of those 3 pitchers in the 1st round and you have Upton at the end of the 1st round just like I do~.

If I really wanted a stud pitcher I'd draft the best hitter available late 1st round and take whichever pitcher drops to early 2nd round. It still isn't worth doing but if I had to draft one for some reason that is the way to do it. If all 3 pitchers happen to go at the end of the 1st round then oh well, I got two top 12 hitters instead which is a bargain.
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Re: 2013 Median Draft Position (MDP)

Postby Grounded Polo » Sun Feb 24, 2013 11:44 am

Excluding pitchers and catchers -

Too high

38 Jacoby Ellsbury (This is a massive risk if accurate, give me Bruce and Holliday over Ellsbury any day)
50 Allen Craig (Is this guy really worth taking at 50? Sounds way too risky to me)
66 Brett Lawrie (He needs to show some production before I take him this early, would rather gamble on Sandoval if they're going at the same time)


Too low

55 B.J. Upton (I can't stay away from this guy - too much power and speed that went to waste with a poor batting average in Tampa. I'm hoping Chipper is around often during the season to teach him some plate discipline but think he's a guy that will thrive in a new environment without always being on the trade block.)
73 Shin-Soo Choo (5 tool stud in that bandbox? Top 50 easy imo.)
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Re: 2013 Median Draft Position (MDP)

Postby OBPlover » Sun Feb 24, 2013 2:35 pm

Izenhart wrote:I'll go to 15, which happens to be Upton, since these are the 15 guys my sheet has valued at $30 or more for a 5x5 12 teamer.

1. Braun
2. Trout
3. Cabrera
4. Cano
5. Votto
6. Pujols
7. Fielder
8. Verlander
9. Kershaw
10. Hamilton
11. Cargo
12. Kemp
13. Strasburg
14. Bautista
15. Upton


No Mccutchen in the top 15? Interesting.
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Re: 2013 Median Draft Position (MDP)

Postby SpecialFNK » Sun Feb 24, 2013 9:28 pm

is there a way to get the positions on there? and maybe a way to separate them to sort all the specific positions together? like all the 1B, then all the 2B, ect.
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Re: 2013 Median Draft Position (MDP)

Postby Izenhart » Mon Feb 25, 2013 4:01 am

Ender wrote:Take your top 15, realize I would never ever ever for any reason draft one of those 3 pitchers in the 1st round and you have Upton at the end of the 1st round just like I do~.

If I really wanted a stud pitcher I'd draft the best hitter available late 1st round and take whichever pitcher drops to early 2nd round. It still isn't worth doing but if I had to draft one for some reason that is the way to do it. If all 3 pitchers happen to go at the end of the 1st round then oh well, I got two top 12 hitters instead which is a bargain.


I see your point, it's just that in my mind there is a huge dropoff in hitting after #7 Fielder. The other hitters on my list are too injury prone to use my first two picks on, I would rather play it safe and draft Verlander or Kershaw, then wait to see which of my top 12 hitters are left for round two. Hamilton is being undervalued by everyone (Or is it I overvalue him? :-D ) so he's usually the guy I end up with, and I am happy with that, because I don't want my first two picks to be two hitters I don't trust. I'd rather take one, a stud P and see what's left for round three.

OBPlover wrote:No Mccutchen in the top 15? Interesting.


I have McCutchen 24th overall, which means I won't own him obviously. I don't think he will reach any of the projections I have seen from him. Pittsburgh's lineup is awful, he's not a great base stealer, and his small frame limits his power ceiling. I think Bryce Harper will put up similar numbers overall with less BA but more counting stats and have them ranked back to back.
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Re: 2013 Median Draft Position (MDP)

Postby rookies and cream » Mon Feb 25, 2013 11:16 am

SpecialFNK wrote:is there a way to get the positions on there? and maybe a way to separate them to sort all the specific positions together? like all the 1B, then all the 2B, ect.


The problem is that there are so many guys who are eligible at multiple positions, which makes sorting extremely difficult. That's why I didn't do it this year.
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