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2013 Median Draft Position (MDP)

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Re: 2013 Median Draft Position (MDP)

Postby OBPlover » Sat Feb 23, 2013 9:43 pm

J. Upton - late 1st round.


I'm not comfortable with Justin Upton in the 1st round. I think he's going to disappoint again. Moving from a great hitter's park to an average one. On top of that, the NL East is the BEST pitching division in all of baseball. With the unbalanced nature of the schedules...he's going to get his share of Strasberg, Doc, Zimmerman, Gio, Hamels and Cliff Lee.
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Re: 2013 Median Draft Position (MDP)

Postby bayside » Sat Feb 23, 2013 11:48 pm

OBPlover wrote:
J. Upton - late 1st round.


I'm not comfortable with Justin Upton in the 1st round. I think he's going to disappoint again. Moving from a great hitter's park to an average one. On top of that, the NL East is the BEST pitching division in all of baseball. With the unbalanced nature of the schedules...he's going to get his share of Strasberg, Doc, Zimmerman, Gio, Hamels and Cliff Lee.

Seems like a complete non-factor to me.
Schedule was also unbalanced for the last few years where he played more road games in SF, SD, and LA than any other parks. And we all know how hitter unfriendly those places are, so...
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Re: 2013 Median Draft Position (MDP)

Postby Ender » Sun Feb 24, 2013 12:05 am

OBPlover wrote:
J. Upton - late 1st round.


I'm not comfortable with Justin Upton in the 1st round. I think he's going to disappoint again. Moving from a great hitter's park to an average one. On top of that, the NL East is the BEST pitching division in all of baseball. With the unbalanced nature of the schedules...he's going to get his share of Strasberg, Doc, Zimmerman, Gio, Hamels and Cliff Lee.


The best pitching division in baseball is by far the NL West. This is a big bump in his value getting to face the NL East.
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Re: 2013 Median Draft Position (MDP)

Postby OBPlover » Sun Feb 24, 2013 12:46 am

NL east is considerably better than the NL West.....

Many people make the mistake of calling the world champion Giants a team that relied on "Great Starting Pitching". In truth the Giants were a team centred on hitting but who played in a great pitcher's park. In 2012, the Giants were 2nd in the NL in Away -Runs scored. Posey-Melky-Panda were just ridiculous on the road. Meanwhile the Giants were 11th in the NL in Road ERA. San Diego was 14th. Only 3 of the top 20 NL batters by OPS came from the NL EAST.

Yes, he gets to miss 3 Pitcher's park including 2 DEEP pitcher's parks, but this is offset by the fact that he misses half his games in a better hitter's park. He misses Coors field and he misses a lot of terrible pitching.

Justin Upton is not a N#1. BJ Upton...though switching from a pitcher's park to an average one...will suck for similar reasons of changing pitching quality between divisions. THE AL East had some just AWFUL pitching in 2012 - Boston/Toronto. NY was really floppy beyond CC and Hiroki and Baltimore's staff was just plum lucky.
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Re: 2013 Median Draft Position (MDP)

Postby OBPlover » Sun Feb 24, 2013 12:46 am

NL east is considerably better than the NL West.....

Many people make the mistake of calling the world champion Giants a team that relied on "Great Starting Pitching". In truth the Giants were a team centred on hitting but who played in a great pitcher's park. In 2012, the Giants were 2nd in the NL in Away -Runs scored. Posey-Melky-Panda were just ridiculous on the road. Meanwhile the Giants were 11th in the NL in Road ERA. San Diego was 14th. Only 3 of the top 20 NL batters by OPS came from the NL EAST.

Yes, he gets to miss 3 Pitcher's park including 2 DEEP pitcher's parks, but this is offset by the fact that he misses half his games in a better hitter's park. He misses Coors field and he misses a lot of terrible pitching.

Justin Upton is not a N#1. BJ Upton...though switching from a pitcher's park to an average one...will suck for similar reasons of changing pitching quality between divisions. THE AL East had some just AWFUL pitching in 2012 - Boston/Toronto. NY was really floppy beyond CC and Hiroki and Baltimore's staff was just plum lucky.
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Re: 2013 Median Draft Position (MDP)

Postby Ender » Sun Feb 24, 2013 12:56 am

Miami has awful pitching. The Phillies have a huge hitters park. The Mets have at best average pitching. The Nationals are the only pitching heavy team Upton faces this year.

Last year he faced the Giants, Dodgers and Padres which are all extreme pitching favorable situations. Yeah he got to face the Rockies but that isn't much different than facing that awful Marlins rotation. This is a pretty clear step up in situation for him. He is in a better lineup as well and he played most of last year hurt which we have to assume he won't repeat.
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Re: 2013 Median Draft Position (MDP)

Postby OBPlover » Sun Feb 24, 2013 3:39 am

Ender wrote:Miami has awful pitching. The Phillies have a huge hitters park. The Mets have at best average pitching. The Nationals are the only pitching heavy team Upton faces this year.

Last year he faced the Giants, Dodgers and Padres which are all extreme pitching favorable situations. Yeah he got to face the Rockies but that isn't much different than facing that awful Marlins rotation. This is a pretty clear step up in situation for him. He is in a better lineup as well and he played most of last year hurt which we have to assume he won't repeat.



Citizens Bank Park is pretty average as a hitter's park - last year it was ranked 19th, 11th in 2011. They have 3 legit Cy Young contenders in Hamels, Cliff Lee and Doc. And Kyle Kendrick was excellent in the 2nd half of 2012. The Nationals have GIO-Stras and Zimm. Stras gets the kid gloves off and will presumably pitch all year and deeper into games. They add Haren who stunk last year but does have a long history of being good. One saving grace is the Mets lost Dickey. But their rotation of Niese, Marcum, Matt Harvey and Dillon Gee is underrated plus Citi is still a pitcher's park. Also, they have a minor league system stacked with good young arms. Miami sucks but, no, it won't be enough and doesn't cancel out the ease of hitting in Coors. The Rockies had bad pitching last year just like the Marlins will have this year, but combined with the Best hitter's park in baseball.

And once again just 3 out of the top 20 hitters by OPS in the NL came from the NL East. And that includes Ian Desmond and Adam Laroche who were on the Nationals and didn't have to face all of their own great pitching. Was some of that due to some good hitters having off years like maybe a Mcann or Uggla or injuries to guys like RYan Howard? Sure. But not all of it. It's not all due to regression. There really is an uphill climb for hitters in the NL East.
Last edited by OBPlover on Sun Feb 24, 2013 3:45 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2013 Median Draft Position (MDP)

Postby GiantsFan14 » Sun Feb 24, 2013 3:45 am

23rd overall is about the earliest I'd take Upton and that's only because he has decent upside over what I have him projected for. I wouldn't come close to touching him late first round.
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Re: 2013 Median Draft Position (MDP)

Postby OBPlover » Sun Feb 24, 2013 3:47 am

GiantsFan14 wrote:23rd overall is about the earliest I'd take Upton and that's only because he has decent upside over what I have him projected for. I wouldn't come close to touching him late first round.


Good man. Learn from my knowledge and prosper. There's just no way the lack of hitting in the NL East last year was mere coincidence...and the trend is only getting worse.

JUpton doesn't "suck"...he's just not worth a first round pick or the 35-40 dollar auction value he's projected for a 12 team mixed league.
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Re: 2013 Median Draft Position (MDP)

Postby Izenhart » Sun Feb 24, 2013 4:17 am

I agree with a lot of what ender says, which honestly worries me :-D we had very differing opinions last year...

BUT -- I do agree Justin Upton in the 1st round isn't the best call. He will face tough pitching maybe 20% of the time, let's not forget 1/3 of the game is now pitched by the bullpen. I may have drafted him in round 1 had he gone to another division, but the strength of schedule should knock him down some. I do believe his #23 ADP is kind of low, but I have no problem taking him mid to late round 2.

Here's my list of top 100 guys I won't touch based on their current ADP

1 Miguel Cabrera 2.0
5 Matt Kemp 5.9
7 Andrew McCutchen 7.7
11 Buster Posey 13.5
17 Troy Tulowitzki 16.8
20 Evan Longoria 21.3
21 Jose Reyes 23.4
22 David Wright 24.4
24 David Price 25.6
27 Ian Kinsler 29.9
29 Felix Hernandez 31.6
33 Adrian Gonzalez 34.4
38 Jacoby Ellsbury 40.9
41 Ryan Zimmerman 42.5
42 Chase Headley 42.5
44 Craig Kimbrel 45.3
51 Paul Goldschmidt 52.7
53 Ben Zobrist 54.6
54 Zack Greinke 56.5
55 B.J. Upton 56.7
56 Yadier Molina 57.0
61 R.A. Dickey 64.5
62 Yu Darvish 65.0
68 Aaron Hill 72.8
70 Matt Wieters 74.7
74 Michael Bourn 78.0
77 Elvis Andrus 79.2
78 Wilin Rosario 80.2
82 Pablo Sandoval 83.3
83 Jonathan Papelbon 84.3
84 Alex Gordon 84.7
88 Jason Motte 89.7
93 Eric Hosmer 97.0
94 Matt Moore 97.6
97 Austin Jackson 102.0

There's too many C's in the top 100 even for 2 C leagues... I'll draft a RP in the top 100 if he's Kimbrel-like but not at #44... 1B and 3B are too deep to reach early on... it's very rare a leadoff hitter without both power and speed are worth a top pick, especially like Bourne who is an OF... And I just feel a lot of these guys are flat out overrated (Mainly the MI like Zobrist, Hill, Reyes).... Kinsler doesn't hit for AVG and drove in 70 runs last year yet he's 27 OA? I understand 2B/SS is very thin, which tricks people into thinking the top tier are good early round values. They aren't.
Last edited by Izenhart on Mon Feb 25, 2013 6:45 am, edited 2 times in total.
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