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Why is Albert Pujols not walking as much?

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Why is Albert Pujols not walking as much?

Postby NikkiSixx » Fri Feb 22, 2013 4:58 pm

He has declined his walk rate a considerable amount in these last 2 years. Is it safe to say he went from being a 100 walks per season player to a 50-60 walks per season player? Will we see an increase? Will his OBP be anywhere close to .400 ever again?


This concerns me when it comes to draft day.
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Re: Why is Albert Pujols not walking as much?

Postby bayside » Fri Feb 22, 2013 5:48 pm

The problem is that his plate discipline is evaporating. His Outside the Zone swing % (swinging at balls) has increased every single season since 2007.
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?pl ... discipline
Over that time his O-Swing % has risen from 18% to a high of 36% last year.
In other words he is now swinging at twice as many balls as he did 5 years ago.

So it no coincidence that his BB rate is about half of what it was at his peak.
However he still makes pretty good contact so his K rate has not jumped nearly as much as his BB% has fallen.

Its possible his reaction time is getting worse as he ages (and as his vision declines) so he has less time to decide if the pitch is something he wants to swing at.
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Re: Why is Albert Pujols not walking as much?

Postby Ender » Sat Feb 23, 2013 12:23 am

This isn't that uncommon for 36 year old players like Albert. At the end of the day I would be paying for a repeat of last year and not vintage albert.
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Re: Why is Albert Pujols not walking as much?

Postby cordscords » Sat Feb 23, 2013 5:55 pm

Ender wrote:This isn't that uncommon for 36 year old players like Albert. At the end of the day I would be paying for a repeat of last year and not vintage albert.


I see what you did there ;-7
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Re: Why is Albert Pujols not walking as much?

Postby rotoquest » Sat Feb 23, 2013 9:21 pm

Ender wrote:This isn't that uncommon for 36 year old players like Albert. At the end of the day I would be paying for a repeat of last year and not vintage albert.

before last year, his previous 3 year average was {42 HR, 115 RUNS, 123 RBI, 13 SB, .313 AVG].
A move to the AL and his stats last year [30 HR, 85 RUNS, 105 RBI, 8 SB, .285 AVG]
Those are not 1st round numbers, so if you're thinking repeat of last year, then it is tough to take him in the 1st round multiplied by this:
ROTOWORLD: Albert Pujols (knee) isn't expected to make his Cactus League debut until mid-March.
The Angels are just playing things safe, as Pujols is coming off arthroscopic surgery on his knee in October. While there's nothing official yet, it's safe to assume that he will not play for the Dominican Republic in the World Baseball Classic.
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Re: Why is Albert Pujols not walking as much?

Postby NikkiSixx » Sat Feb 23, 2013 9:40 pm

Well I dont see how we can expect the elite production if he isnt the same hitter. That's enough to scare me off.
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Re: Why is Albert Pujols not walking as much?

Postby NikkiSixx » Sat Feb 23, 2013 9:43 pm

At least for round 1... He will be at 9th on my big board. I dont see him falling that far so I doubt I will own him at all this year. And I certainly wont be spending 45 dollars on him in an auction.
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Re: Why is Albert Pujols not walking as much?

Postby Izenhart » Mon Feb 25, 2013 4:30 am

Big guys like him tend to lose their bat speed and AVG around their early to mid 30's, I'm thinking like a Frank Thomas type hitter here. If he goes the Thomas route we still may see a 40 HR season or two but I think the years of a .300 BA may be gone.
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