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Not my guys season 2!

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Re: Not my guys season 2!

Postby OBPlover » Sun Feb 24, 2013 10:00 pm

I'm hearing an awful lot of "who not to take" but not a lot of "who you should take" in the first round. Not complaining. It's hard as hell to rank the top 15 Fantasy players this year. So much risk. Pujols? declining numbers. Votto - his no HR's in the second half is kinda scary. Tulo? Coming off injury. Cutch? Most people here don't like him. So who to take?

I have been doing some Mocks today and I know it's early and people don't care too much about mocks in general. However, there have been some absolute bargains at 1B and 3b. And Ender's Right, why take Longo or David Wright in the first 2 rounds when there's ultra cheap Aramis Ramirez and David Freese? Just how much better do Longo/Wright project over Aram or Freese? Certainly something but not enough to justify the 20 or so rounds between them. For 1b, you have some really underrated players in Paul Konerko who are old, but old enough to justify an absolutely smashing in production? And a healthy Adam Laroche still goes almost undrafted.

So, according to the prevailing wisdom...Taking a Catcher in the first 2 rounds is out of the question due to injury risk and tons of late round bargains. Similar to SPs and absolutely no closer in the first 2 rounds as always. 1b/3B are fraught with late round Bar-goons. SS features only 1 guy with potential to justify a top round pick and he was injured almost all of 2012. I paid 12 bucks in an auction for Shin Shoo Choo and the other guy paid 60 for Trout and 52 for Matt Kemp. So I don't know if I go the big OF route either.

So there really isn't anything straight foward, which is why I believe Cano and is truly golden this year. A pretty low risk pick in a sea of high risk 2B. I'm taking Cano 3rd overall in a draft behind just Braun and Cabby but ahead of Pujols, Trout, Cutch, Votto or Kemp
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Re: Not my guys season 2!

Postby Izenhart » Mon Feb 25, 2013 4:22 am

Yes! I had Cano ranked #2 in my initial list (due to depth at 3B and OF and the major lack of depth at 2B) but have since bumped him down to a very solid #4. I see having a top 4 pick in a snake draft to be a huge advantage, especially since there are so many landmines to watch out for at the end of round 1 and beginning of round 2. The difference between the 8th best hitter and the 25th best hitter is minimal. So it just comes down to who you trust.

Drafts aren't won in the first three rounds, they are won from about the 7th round on after everyone else has wasted their round 4-6 picks on garbage.

It may be better to talk about the bargains you find after pick #100, but I am currently in a cafe draft so I'll keep my bargain targets quiet for now :-D But I'd love to hear who other people are targeting.
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Re: Not my guys season 2!

Postby silverZ » Mon Feb 25, 2013 4:57 pm

Izenhart wrote:It may be better to talk about the bargains you find after pick #100, but I am currently in a cafe draft so I'll keep my bargain targets quiet for now :-D But I'd love to hear who other people are targeting.


I bet you would... }:-)
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Re: Not my guys season 2!

Postby Ehlana » Tue Feb 26, 2013 2:32 pm

OBPlover wrote:I'm hearing an awful lot of "who not to take" but not a lot of "who you should take" in the first round.


This to me is an important point. It's kinda the same thing whenever an all star team is named and you get inundated with lists of guys who were "snubbed". Everyone's so quick to say who should be on the team, but no one really steps up to say who should be taken off the team to make room for the guys who were "snubbed".

That said my top 12 or so for this year probably consists of:

1. Trout. Even if he regresses some that lineup is stacked and he was so good last year he can still have first round value if he loses a few steals/homers.
2. Braun. He steals bases, Cabrera doesn't.
3. Cabrera. He might not get 40/130 again this year, but he's also very unlikely to do anything less than 30/110.

There's a bit of a drop off here imo. The next few guys all have ?'s imo.

4. Cano. Very consistent like Cabrera, plays a shallow position, but man, that Yankee lineup is looking ugly. I'm not confident that Jeter/Ichiro will get on base enough and Teixeira/Youkilis will hit enough after Cano to support Cano for the counting stats he needs to justify this position.
5. Kemp. Coming off leg/shoulder injuries.
6. Votto. Um, a homerun or two out of my 1st round pick is sort of a necessity.

Another slight gap here.

7. Carlos Gonzalez. He's great at Coors and awful on the road. This averages out in a roto league, but in a head to head league it's likely to cost you a couple of weeks at least.
8. Andrew McCutcheon. He's only done it once, fades in the 2nd half, and doesn't have much lineup support. Still 30/30 potential though.
9. Prince Fielder. Don't pass on the Cheeseburger King just b/c he plays 1st base. He'll put up useful numbers in everything other than steals. And arguably 3rd base (Cabrera's position) is deeper than 1st this year.
10. Pujols. Name recognition but 1 home run in 211 at bats in April/September/October is ominous.
11. Tulowitzki. WARNING WARNING DANGER probable won't make it through the year.
12. Verlander. Only b/c I tend to follow the maxim of drafts can be lost but not won in the 1st round. I'm not willing to roll the dice on Strasbourg here.
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Re: Not my guys season 2!

Postby Ender » Tue Feb 26, 2013 2:38 pm

The type of league matters so much in who I will and will not draft where.

Braun
Cabrera

Trout
Cano

Kemp
Pujols
Votto
Fielder

Cargo
Stanton
Upton
McCutchen

At this point there is a big group of players that just depend on what you already took and what your plans are. Personally I target 2 of the top 24 pitchers but I don't care where I get them from. I would pretty much never draft them in the 1st 2 rounds though.
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Re: Not my guys season 2!

Postby OBPlover » Tue Feb 26, 2013 3:03 pm

Not to beat a dead horse here, but I was in a mock draft last night and guess who lasted the first 2 rounds?

Justin Upton.

I asked everyone why they didn't pick him. The responses back were "never had 100 RBI" and "injury prone". Then I tried to explain my theory as to why he will disappoint due to all the good SP in the NL East. They didn't seem to care about that either. :-) But 29th overall pick? Even I got to say at 29th, he's worth a pick.
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Re: Not my guys season 2!

Postby Ender » Tue Feb 26, 2013 3:27 pm

I'm not a huge fan of that last tier either, I hate when I have to pick in it because all of the players have big warts. Everything from about pick 12 to pick 24 or so has a lot of downside in it. Either really unproven young guys or guys coming off injuries or guys with really erratic year to year value etc. In my auction league I avoided most of that tier completely.
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Re: Not my guys season 2!

Postby rookies and cream » Tue Feb 26, 2013 3:30 pm

This is why I would going with a SP here: Verlander, Kershaw, or Strasburg. Normally not my strategy but probably less risky.
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Re: Not my guys season 2!

Postby Ender » Tue Feb 26, 2013 3:33 pm

I tend to go for the guys coming off injury who played late in the season and have proven they can put up elite stats in the past. So in that pond scum league I went J. Upton and D. Pedrioa. No reason to think either of them are currently hurt, they had kinds of injuries that aren't chronic and both have put up at least one elite year in the past and are still young enough to improve. They also built a really good foundation of stats. I ended up getting Hamels with the 1st pick of round 4 (14 team league) and I don't see that large of a drop from a big pitcher to him.
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Re: Not my guys season 2!

Postby rookies and cream » Tue Feb 26, 2013 3:54 pm

Ender wrote:I tend to go for the guys coming off injury who played late in the season and have proven they can put up elite stats in the past. So in that pond scum league I went J. Upton and D. Pedrioa. No reason to think either of them are currently hurt, they had kinds of injuries that aren't chronic and both have put up at least one elite year in the past and are still young enough to improve. They also built a really good foundation of stats. I ended up getting Hamels with the 1st pick of round 4 (14 team league) and I don't see that large of a drop from a big pitcher to him.


That's true, but that's also a little late for Hamels. His MDP puts him in the mid to late 3rd round in 12-team leagues. You could say the same thing with Upton vs. Heyward or Adam Jones. Not too large of a drop there either.
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