Ender wrote: Buster Posey falls into drafting C in the first couple rounds being a pure downside move. You cannot get good value by drafting Posey in the 1st round, it just is not possible. He also probably had his career year given how insanely hot he was in the 2nd half. This is a pure downside move.
GiantsFan14 wrote:I agree with pretty much all of this
Which ADP's are you using? The ones from MDC are are still really really unreliable since the 4 day samples are still so small. Between 2/19 and 2/22 (the latest update) there were only 79 mocks. A few crazy picks can really throw off the average.
I feel like using a specific providers ADP is more reliable at this point. For example on Yahoo a lot of the guys you have problems with (and rightfully so, I also wouldnt touch any f the layers at the ADP you mentioned) are quite a bit different and they do pass the sniff test for the most part:
Andrew McCutchen as #5 is insane. Currently #8 on Yahoo. Still too early for my liking but i suppose after the top 3 its a matter of preference
Buster Posey falls into drafting C in the first couple rounds being a pure downside move. You cannot get good value by drafting Posey in the 1st round, it just is not possible. He also probably had his career year given how insanely hot he was in the 2nd half. This is a pure downside move. ADP of 17 on Yahoo. Mid second round is too early still, but way better than a 1st round pick
Bautista is going too early at pick 8. The wrist injury is a real concern and he simply is not a good AVG hitter. He is an early to mid 2nd round guy. ADP of 17 on Yahoo
Granderson at ADP 12? This does not compute. Last year he might have made some sense at 12 but he had a pretty cruddy year compared to 2011 so no way he deserves that pick. He is also on the wrong side of 30 and that lineup is going to be weaker this year. 32 on Yahoo. I would be perfectly fine taking him the mid 3rd round
Bryce Harper. The guy is a complete tool but he can really play. Pick 15 is just too early. He has to have a major breakout for this to be worth a pick here and to be honest most hitters struggle in the 2nd year, they don't breakout. Again Yahoo has him going in the late 3rd at #35
Paul Goldschmidt. I love this guy but an ADP of 20 is just dumb for a guy who has never hit over 20 HR and who struggles to make contact against RHP. THis is the one that absolutely doe snot pass the sniff test. 20 is insane. Yahoo has him going at 53, mid 5th. Seems way more reasonable.
BJ. Upton. pick 22, really? Yeah the 20/20 is nice but he is batting 5th so won't get insane R+RBI and might not steal as much. He is also a legit sub .250 hitter. This is a really bad place to take him. Also a mid 5th round ADP on Yahoo
Anthony Rizzo. I actually like Rizzo as well but an ADP of 49 is just silly. No way he should be going over guys like Freeman, Konerko or even Ike Davis given his track record at this point. ADP of 85 on Yahoo, 3 rounds later than MDC
Bottom line, MDC ADPs are still very unreliable and if you use their numbers to project where players will be taken in your real draft, you will be very disappointed/surprised
bayside wrote:Which ADP's are you using? The ones from MDC are are still really really unreliable since the 4 day samples are still so small. Between 2/19 and 2/22 (the latest update) there were only 79 mocks. A few crazy picks can really throw off the average.
I feel like using a specific providers ADP is more reliable at this point. For example on Yahoo a lot of the guys you have problems with (and rightfully so, I also wouldnt touch any f the layers at the ADP you mentioned) are quite a bit different and they do pass the sniff test for the most part:
Andrew McCutchen as #5 is insane. Currently #8 on Yahoo. Still too early for my liking but i suppose after the top 3 its a matter of preference
Buster Posey falls into drafting C in the first couple rounds being a pure downside move. You cannot get good value by drafting Posey in the 1st round, it just is not possible. He also probably had his career year given how insanely hot he was in the 2nd half. This is a pure downside move. ADP of 17 on Yahoo. Mid second round is too early still, but way better than a 1st round pick
Bautista is going too early at pick 8. The wrist injury is a real concern and he simply is not a good AVG hitter. He is an early to mid 2nd round guy. ADP of 17 on Yahoo
Granderson at ADP 12? This does not compute. Last year he might have made some sense at 12 but he had a pretty cruddy year compared to 2011 so no way he deserves that pick. He is also on the wrong side of 30 and that lineup is going to be weaker this year. 32 on Yahoo. I would be perfectly fine taking him the mid 3rd round
Bryce Harper. The guy is a complete tool but he can really play. Pick 15 is just too early. He has to have a major breakout for this to be worth a pick here and to be honest most hitters struggle in the 2nd year, they don't breakout. Again Yahoo has him going in the late 3rd at #35
Paul Goldschmidt. I love this guy but an ADP of 20 is just dumb for a guy who has never hit over 20 HR and who struggles to make contact against RHP. THis is the one that absolutely doe snot pass the sniff test. 20 is insane. Yahoo has him going at 53, mid 5th. Seems way more reasonable.
BJ. Upton. pick 22, really? Yeah the 20/20 is nice but he is batting 5th so won't get insane R+RBI and might not steal as much. He is also a legit sub .250 hitter. This is a really bad place to take him. Also a mid 5th round ADP on Yahoo
Anthony Rizzo. I actually like Rizzo as well but an ADP of 49 is just silly. No way he should be going over guys like Freeman, Konerko or even Ike Davis given his track record at this point. ADP of 85 on Yahoo, 3 rounds later than MDC
Bottom line, MDC ADPs are still very unreliable and if you use their numbers to project where players will be taken in your real draft, you will be very disappointed/surprised
Exactly. That all sounds a lot more reasonable. I suppose I would agree with Ender's entire list if those were the actual ADP's. But they arent, and I think most of the guys listed here are going just about where they should be.
Well keep in mind the difference in leagues. Yahoo uses extremely shallow league settings so its ADP is way off from what you are going to see in most real drafts. I don't have access to an NFBC ADP which seems like the best thing to use. Posey has gone early 2nd round or 1st round in every draft I've seen as an example, but I play in 2 C leagues and usually 14 teamers.
Granderson is the only name I've listed that I even came close to drafting in a real draft. All of the other players have always been gone before I would have taken them.
Edit: I've actually taken BJ Upton and almost took him another time. He seems to be slipping to the late 3rd/early 4th round in real drafts which is fine in a 14 teamer.
Last edited by Ender on Fri Feb 22, 2013 5:31 pm, edited 2 times in total.
I don't trust Yahoo's ADP at all. I used it one year to try to gauge a league of casual players and I tossed the report in the garbage in the 3rd round.
jfg wrote:I don't trust Yahoo's ADP at all. I used it one year to try to gauge a league of casual players and I tossed the report in the garbage in the 3rd round.
In light of this discussion, I think I'll release MDP later tonight regardless of whether ESPN posts theirs.
Cafe Home
Fantasy Football
Fantasy Basketball
Fantasy Hockey
by jfg » Fri Feb 22, 2013 3:41 pm 
