I made a post last year of guys I didn't want to draft early. Overall I think I mostly nailed some overrated players so going to try again this year. I will look at players picked in the top 75 that shouldn't go where they have been by ADP. This is by current MDC ADP.viewtopic.php?t=439951&hilit=not+my+guys
I'll start it off by saying if you don't draft Braun #1 you are being a silly person. Cabrera had about the best year he could imagine last year and wasn't a top 4 fantasy player. Braun has the track record over Trout for sure and this steroid issue is such a non issue that it is insane to drop him for it.
Andrew McCutchen as #5 is insane. Bad lineup still, power spike that wasn't really supported by skills. I wouldn't take him in the top 10 much less top 5.
Buster Posey falls into drafting C in the first couple rounds being a pure downside move. You cannot get good value by drafting Posey in the 1st round, it just is not possible. He also probably had his career year given how insanely hot he was in the 2nd half. This is a pure downside move.
Bautista is going too early at pick 8. The wrist injury is a real concern and he simply is not a good AVG hitter. He is an early to mid 2nd round guy.
Granderson at ADP 12? This does not compute. Last year he might have made some sense at 12 but he had a pretty cruddy year compared to 2011 so no way he deserves that pick. He is also on the wrong side of 30 and that lineup is going to be weaker this year.
Bryce Harper. The guy is a complete tool but he can really play. Pick 15 is just too early. He has to have a major breakout for this to be worth a pick here and to be honest most hitters struggle in the 2nd year, they don't breakout.
Paul Goldschmidt. I love this guy but an ADP of 20 is just dumb for a guy who has never hit over 20 HR and who struggles to make contact against RHP.
BJ. Upton. pick 22, really? Yeah the 20/20 is nice but he is batting 5th so won't get insane R+RBI and might not steal as much. He is also a legit sub .250 hitter. This is a really bad place to take him.
Anthony Rizzo. I actually like Rizzo as well but an ADP of 49 is just silly. No way he should be going over guys like Freeman, Konerko or even Ike Davis given his track record at this point.
Alex Gordon doesn't make much sense at 61 since he is leading off. A non elite AVG guy with tweener HR/SB who will get like 170 R+RBI tops is a teen round pick, not a 5th rounder.
Honorable mention. If you are someone who takes Longoria in the 1st or early 2nd round you make no sense to me. He does not have the contact skills to think he will hit much over .275, he doesn't steal anymore, he is in a bad lineup. You are basically praying he stays healthy and breaks out skills wise at this point. It most likely is not going to happen. His ADP of 28 is probably fine but I see him go way too early in a lot of drafts.