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I don't understand the Kyle Lohse situation

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Re: I don't understand the Kyle Lohse situation

Postby SpecialFNK » Thu Feb 21, 2013 9:38 am

I've wondered if there was a better way for teams to keep their own free agents, something like restricted free agency or franchise tag.
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I don't understand the Kyle Lohse situation

Postby RogerThat » Thu Feb 21, 2013 9:57 am

Losing a draft pick for signing a f/a that was offered arbitration is not new
Has been happening for the last 10+ years
No idea why you haven't heard it before

Lohse is now the only player left tied to a pick
There were others this year and they signed already
Soriano, Swisher, Hamilton, Bourne and am sure others

Rules were tweaked but this basic rule is old now they call it a qualifying offer not arbitration
; the main new thing is teams care more about their draft picks now so it is getting more press this year and last

Oh additionally 10 worst teams by record are not subject to losing a 1st round pick, it is protected for them
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Re: I don't understand the Kyle Lohse situation

Postby Ender » Thu Feb 21, 2013 10:22 am

I think only certain teams lose their 1st round pick, right? like if your one of the bad teams in baseball from last season, then your 1st round pick is protected? I haven't been following Lohse, but it was like that with Michael Bourn


The first 10 picks are protected. This year the Mets had the 10th pick but the Pirates failed to sign their 1st round pick last year and that pushed the Mets into the 11th pick which is why they didn't end up signing Bourn.
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Re: I don't understand the Kyle Lohse situation

Postby daullaz » Thu Feb 21, 2013 11:13 am

He wasn't offered arbitration. He was made a qualifying offer.

The way the new rules work, the top 125 salaries of the just completed year -- in this case 2012 -- are averaged together to come up with a number. This year, that number was $13.3 million. All teams are allowed to then make a one-year qualifying offer of that amount to any of their players who are entering free agency. The player has the option of accepting the deal or declining it.

If they decline it and hit the open market, the new compensation rules come into effect. Those state that a team that signs a player who declined a qualifying offer (if not the team that made the qualifying offer) loses their first pick, unless it falls inside the top 10, in which case they lose their second pick. The player's former team then receives a compensation pick sandwiched between the first and second rounds. The order of the sandwich pick is the same as the first round for all teams with compensatory picks, so if both the Astros and Nationals had compensation picks this year, the Astros' pick would come first.

Under the new system, nine players were made qualifying offers, all worth $13.3 million: David Ortiz, Josh Hamilton, Michael Bourn, Adam LaRoche, Kyle Lohse, B.J. Upton, Hiroki Kuroda, Rafael Soriano and Nick Swisher. Ortiz re-signed before the players' decision deadline, the other eight declined the offer. LaRoche and Kuroda re-signed with their former teams, so the pick compensation rules are thrown out in those cases.

The Indians signed Bourn and Swisher, the Angels signed Hamilton, the Braves signed Upton and the Nats signed Soriano. Since the Indians have a top-ten pick in the first round, they lost their second and third round picks (and the amount of allotted bonus pool money, which is a whole 'nother thing). The Angels lost the 1.22 pick, the Braves lost the 1.28 pick, and the Nationals lost the 1.31, with all three losing the allotted bonus pool number associated with each pick.

The Yankees lost Swisher and Soriano, the Rangers lost Hamilton, the Rays lost Upton and the Braves lost Bourn. While I'm not positive, I believe the Yankees' picks will be back-to-back, rather than the team getting the first pick because they lost more than one guy. That would mean that, directly behind the Reds' first-round pick (which is now No. 28), are picks for the Rays, Rangers, Braves, Yankees and Yankees again, in that order, before the second round starts.

If Lohse re-signs with St. Louis, that'll be the final draft order. If he signs somewhere else, the Cardinals will get the pick between the Reds' first-rounder and the Rays' compensatory pick, and the signing team will lose its first-round pick, unless it's one of the following teams (pick lost in parenthesis):

Astros (2nd round)
Cubs (2nd round)
Rockies (2nd round)
Twins (2nd round)
Indians (4th round)
Marlins (2nd round)
Red Sox (2nd round)
Royals (2nd round)
Blue Jays (2nd round)
Angels (2nd round)
Braves (2nd round)
Nationals (2nd round)

Caveat No. 1: The Pirates have two first-round picks (No. 9, No. 14) after failing to sign Mark Appel, their 2012 first-round pick. They would lose the second of those picks (No. 14) if they signed Lohse.

Caveat No. 2: The Mets argued that they should have a protected first rounder despite checking in at No. 11, as they were the tenth-worst team but were moved down a pick due to the Appel situation above. This argument was likely in relation to their interest in Michael Bourn, but it'll be interesting to see how baseball rules in the matter, as it could have a future effect.
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Re: I don't understand the Kyle Lohse situation

Postby J35J » Thu Feb 21, 2013 11:48 am

daullaz wrote:He wasn't offered arbitration. He was made a qualifying offer.

The way the new rules work, the top 125 salaries of the just completed year -- in this case 2012 -- are averaged together to come up with a number. This year, that number was $13.3 million. All teams are allowed to then make a one-year qualifying offer of that amount to any of their players who are entering free agency. The player has the option of accepting the deal or declining it.

If they decline it and hit the open market, the new compensation rules come into effect. Those state that a team that signs a player who declined a qualifying offer (if not the team that made the qualifying offer) loses their first pick, unless it falls inside the top 10, in which case they lose their second pick. The player's former team then receives a compensation pick sandwiched between the first and second rounds. The order of the sandwich pick is the same as the first round for all teams with compensatory picks, so if both the Astros and Nationals had compensation picks this year, the Astros' pick would come first.

Under the new system, nine players were made qualifying offers, all worth $13.3 million: David Ortiz, Josh Hamilton, Michael Bourn, Adam LaRoche, Kyle Lohse, B.J. Upton, Hiroki Kuroda, Rafael Soriano and Nick Swisher. Ortiz re-signed before the players' decision deadline, the other eight declined the offer. LaRoche and Kuroda re-signed with their former teams, so the pick compensation rules are thrown out in those cases.

The Indians signed Bourn and Swisher, the Angels signed Hamilton, the Braves signed Upton and the Nats signed Soriano. Since the Indians have a top-ten pick in the first round, they lost their second and third round picks (and the amount of allotted bonus pool money, which is a whole 'nother thing). The Angels lost the 1.22 pick, the Braves lost the 1.28 pick, and the Nationals lost the 1.31, with all three losing the allotted bonus pool number associated with each pick.

The Yankees lost Swisher and Soriano, the Rangers lost Hamilton, the Rays lost Upton and the Braves lost Bourn. While I'm not positive, I believe the Yankees' picks will be back-to-back, rather than the team getting the first pick because they lost more than one guy. That would mean that, directly behind the Reds' first-round pick (which is now No. 28), are picks for the Rays, Rangers, Braves, Yankees and Yankees again, in that order, before the second round starts.

If Lohse re-signs with St. Louis, that'll be the final draft order. If he signs somewhere else, the Cardinals will get the pick between the Reds' first-rounder and the Rays' compensatory pick, and the signing team will lose its first-round pick, unless it's one of the following teams (pick lost in parenthesis):

Astros (2nd round)
Cubs (2nd round)
Rockies (2nd round)
Twins (2nd round)
Indians (4th round)
Marlins (2nd round)
Red Sox (2nd round)
Royals (2nd round)
Blue Jays (2nd round)
Angels (2nd round)
Braves (2nd round)
Nationals (2nd round)

Caveat No. 1: The Pirates have two first-round picks (No. 9, No. 14) after failing to sign Mark Appel, their 2012 first-round pick. They would lose the second of those picks (No. 14) if they signed Lohse.

Caveat No. 2: The Mets argued that they should have a protected first rounder despite checking in at No. 11, as they were the tenth-worst team but were moved down a pick due to the Appel situation above. This argument was likely in relation to their interest in Michael Bourn, but it'll be interesting to see how baseball rules in the matter, as it could have a future effect.


;-D
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Re: I don't understand the Kyle Lohse situation

Postby daullaz » Thu Feb 21, 2013 12:45 pm

One other important thing to note: Only players that were with an organization for an entire year are eligible for qualifying offers. For example, Anibal Sanchez couldn't receive a QO from the Tigers because he was traded in-season. This could lead to situations where Lohse-like players demand trades to avoid being placed in this situation.

My thoughts:

I think this new system helps big market teams more than small market teams. The Rays picked up a low-20s pick for losing B.J. Upton, but couldn't high-level FAs bring back more in a pre-FA trade? Unless a small market team looks like a World Series contender, they would likely be better off trading top guys for a package of good prospects before the deadline. If the Rays don't re-sign David Price long-term, what'll be worth more to them: the package of players they can get in a Price trade during his final season of team control, or the compensatory pick they receive when he signs a big contract elsewhere?

For Lohse-like guys (or Soriano, or Kuroda, etc.), can a team like the Rays really afford to offer a one-year, $13-million-plus deal on the chance that the player accepts? I don't know that the budgets of those type of teams are equipped to handle such a deal. If the offer is made and the player does accept, I could see the team trading him away for pennies on the dollar just to clear that contract. More likely, I don't see the offer being made.

However, when you're the Yankees or the Dodgers and you have a $180 million budget or $250 million instead of a $50 million budget, you can hand out those qualifying offers like they're nothing. The Yankees were willing to give $13.3 million to a middle reliever -- would that fly in Tampa, Houston, Oakland, etc.? Of course not. Those type of teams could never risk making a qualifying offer to a non-elite player on the slight chance that he accepts, especially now that players have seen what Bourn and especially Lohse have went through this offseason.

Worst care scenario for the big market teams in this case is that the player does find a team willing to lose a first-rounder and sign that non-elite player, thereby giving the Yankees/Dodgers/others an extra pick in the high 30s and the higher amount of bonus allotment that comes with it. Note that the bonus allotment for all picks is added up to one final number, and that's the figure the teams are working with. With multiple picks like the Yankees have now, they could draft one superstar prospect with high signing-bonus red flag with their first pick, give him what he wants, then use their successive picks on lower-slot players to make up the difference. That's part of the reason Lucas Giolito fell to 16th last year. The Nats took him and signed him for roughly $800,000 more than slot but exceeded their allotment by just $100,000 (and paid a $75,000 fine) by saving on other players. Since teams with comp picks are going to have higher allotments than they would otherwise have had, they can do the same thing. While the truly elite are still going to go in the top five, situations like this could drive top-10 to top-15 talents down to the compensatory picks depending on their bonus demands.
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Re: I don't understand the Kyle Lohse situation

Postby Nerfherders » Thu Feb 21, 2013 5:25 pm

Well outlined, daullaz.

To me, the mistake was Lohse's. He overestimated his value and declined the 13 mil. There's no team that wants to pay him a multi-year deal at that level and/or lose their 1st round pick.

The inherent flaw in the new system is that the middle-tier teams can't compete. If you win between 75 and 85 games you're in that no-man's land where the pick is pretty valuable compared to the FA's available. Only the top 10 and bottom 10 are going to use that system.
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Re: I don't understand the Kyle Lohse situation

Postby kab21 » Fri Feb 22, 2013 12:25 pm

One thing that has changed with the new CBA is that teams can no longer re-allocate the money that they would have spent on their first rd pick to an overslot pick later or to an int'l bonus baby. This makes draft picks more valuable now imo.

I think losing draft picks will be gone in the next CBA. Draft pick comp will probably stay but agents will go for the last thing that restricts player values.

Restricted FA really isn't an option since you can't just pick and choose aspects of NBA/NFL/MLB FA to include. MLB owners already enjoy having players for the MLB min for 3 yrs and 3 yrs of arb. Gaining RFA would probably result in the elimination of that part of FA.
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Re: I don't understand the Kyle Lohse situation

Postby wrveres » Fri Feb 22, 2013 4:49 pm

anybody remember when the Giants used to sign free agents early so that they would purposely lose their first round pick? That way they didn't have to pay the prospect. :-o
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Re: I don't understand the Kyle Lohse situation

Postby bayside » Sat Feb 23, 2013 8:49 pm

wrveres wrote:anybody remember when the Giants used to sign free agents early so that they would purposely lose their first round pick? That way they didn't have to pay the prospect. :-o

Hmmm mustve forgotten about that with all the World Series the Giants have been winning lately.
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