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Offer CarGo/Middlebrooks for Adrian Gonz/Lawrie ??

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Offer CarGo/Middlebrooks for Adrian Gonz/Lawrie ??

Postby mm92280 » Wed Feb 20, 2013 9:19 pm

I am busy position myself for the season, as we have yet to select our keepers in my league or to draft. We are allowed 5 keepers in this league, which is a 20 team H2H league.

Here is the scoring for my league:

Batting: AVG, R, HR, RBI, OPS, SB, AST
Pitching: ERA, WHIP, K, WINS, CG, SV, HLDS

I am considering offering a trade in which I would give up Carlos Gonzalez & Will Middlebrooks for Adrian Gonzalez and Brett Lawrie. I recognize that I would be giving up the current best player in the deal (Carlos Gonzalez) and that CarGo is generally considered a top 10 or top 15 pick but I tend to think he's slightly overvalued in fantasy circles. I recognize that is very good but I don't think he's an outstanding player. I think 2010 is a bit of an outlier statistically for him and that 2011 and 2012 is more of what he really will be fantasy-wise - still very, very good production - .310 AVG 25 HR 95 RBI 20 SB - but not elite fantasy production. Middlebrooks will not be a keeper for me, so he's just a throw-in to try to lure the other guy in.

I think Adrian Gonzalez is a guy who still has quite a bit left in the tank and will bounce back to some degree. I could definitely see him hitting about .300 with 25 HR 100 RBI and a .380 OBP, which would obviously mean that he would be a top 5 or top 6 first baseman. Lawrie disappointed a bit last year but I still think people view him as having a bright future and that it is just a matter of time before he puts it together. I would think he's perfectly capable of going .280 AVG 20 HR 80 RBI 18 SB - this season, with the potential for more in future seasons. Doing so would solidify me at 3B and 1B, while giving up a very good OF (lets face it - easier to find in the draft).

The biggest risk on my end (besides giving up the best player in the deal) is it does kind of muddy my keeper picture. Obviously, I would then keep Stanton, Adrian Gonzalez and Brett Lawrie and I would then be left with 2 keepers to debate among 4 potential players - Carlos Santana, Ben Zobrist, Adam Wainwright, Gio Gonzalez. I would think Santana would have to be the guy, as he should be a top 5 or top 6 catcher and you just can't toss a guy like that back into the draft (where he would obviously be snatched up pretty quickly once the draft got underway). As much as I would be tempted to keep Zobrist as my #5 guy because of his versatility and pretty decent overall production, I would probably keep Wainwright, since I feel he should definitely be a top 12 and possibly even a top 10 starter this season and I would be worried about not keeping any starting pitchers at all. Gio would be the odd man out, as I am a little higher on Wainwright than him as a SP this year.

So, would I be absolutely nuts for considering this scenario? He hasn't proposed it to me but I've sort of played it out in my mind and I could see Adrian Gonzalez and Lawrie being a very nice combo at the corners for me. I know it puts my keepers in a little bit of chaos and that I would have to put a couple of quality guys back into the draft pool (Gio Gonzalez and either Zobrist or Wainwright) but it is something I am considering.


Here is my roster, as it now stands (which is essentially what it looked like at the end of last season):

C: Carlos Santana (C, 1B)
1B: E. Hosmer (1B)
2B: B. Zobrist (2B, SS, RF)
SS: A. Escobar (SS)
3B: W. Middlebrooks (3B)
LF: C. Gonzalez (LF)
CF: A. Eaton (CF)
RF: G. Stanton (RF)
Util: J. Maxwell (LF, CF, RF)
Util: B. Revere (RF)
Bn: K. Youkilis (3B, 1B)
Bn: W. Myers (RF)

SP: A. Wainwright
SP: G. Gonzalez
SP: K. Medlen
SP: J. Niese
SP: M. Estrada
SP: A. Cobb
RP: A. Reed
RP: R. Soriano
RP: S. Downs
RP: S. Marshall


Thanks!
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Re: Offer CarGo/Middlebrooks for Adrian Gonz/Lawrie ??

Postby jtsandwich » Wed Feb 20, 2013 9:44 pm

I would pass, I think that Cargo is clearly a better keeper than Adrian and Lawrie and Middlebrook are simple a toss up. Don't over think this, you have a solid set of keeper and I agree with Wainwright and Santana for sure. Here's my question for you, why would you want to trade Cargo, age 27 and primed for a very solid year, for a 30 yr old Adrian who may or may not return to his strong numbers back in SD. Yes, LA is a better park that SD, but so was BOST by a mile and he struggled for some odd reason. The only thing on the side of the Adrian/Lawrie trade is the fact that everyone expected Lawrie to be a top young player and most did not see Middlebrook coming.

So pass on this one and when Cargo is tearing the cover off the ball trade him for something even more than Adrian/Lawrie.

Help, if you have an opinion on this one...viewtopic.php?t=454788
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Re: Offer CarGo/Middlebrooks for Adrian Gonz/Lawrie ??

Postby OBPlover » Thu Feb 21, 2013 2:31 am

I'd go Cargo/Middlebrooks over Agon/Lawrie.

I'm worried about Agon..he's on a downward slide, playing in a pitchers and his walk rate fell off a cliff in 2012.

The Cargo/Middle tandem is buoyed by a ballpark factor that gives them some support even if they do have off seasons.
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Re: Offer CarGo/Middlebrooks for Adrian Gonz/Lawrie ??

Postby fsbarren » Thu Feb 21, 2013 7:41 am

I don't think you're nuts for considering a trade like this, but I would have to wonder if the reward is equal to the risk.

Of the four players in the potential trade, CarGo is probably the only one that might be considered "safe" in terms of a reasonable confidence band of meeting his projections. The other three still have some questions coming into 2013 and as such, a relatively higher risk, especially at the top of your keepers.

I love A-Gon and if I could buy low (or even medium) I would jump on him. His best years were in San Diego, and it's very possible that his down years might have had something to do with being in the AL or in Boston. If he can hit in Boston, you'd have to think he could in LA. However, the uncertainty makes him a risky pick to be a top 10 player as Cargo is currently regarded. While there are questions with Middlebrooks and Lawrie, I think there are pluses to both of them.

This seems a case where maybe you're simultaneously higher than A-Gon than most people and a little lower than CarGo than most people as well. There's nothing wrong with going high risk/high reward (and indeed many a championship has been one on a gamble) but I think the key is selectively applying risk. A-Gon/Lawrie COULD outperform your current guys, but do you really need to gamble when you have a better chance of hitting your expected target stats with CarGo/Lawrie.

I still agree with you going after A-Gon, but maybe with a combination of slightly lower tier guys including Santana, Medlen, Hosmer, etc.

Best of luck with your league.
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Re: Offer CarGo/Middlebrooks for Adrian Gonz/Lawrie ??

Postby toledomudhens » Thu Feb 21, 2013 9:29 am

mm92280 wrote:I am busy position myself for the season, as we have yet to select our keepers in my league or to draft. We are allowed 5 keepers in this league, which is a 20 team H2H league.

Here is the scoring for my league:

Batting: AVG, R, HR, RBI, OPS, SB, AST
Pitching: ERA, WHIP, K, WINS, CG, SV, HLDS

I am considering offering a trade in which I would give up Carlos Gonzalez & Will Middlebrooks for Adrian Gonzalez and Brett Lawrie. I recognize that I would be giving up the current best player in the deal (Carlos Gonzalez) and that CarGo is generally considered a top 10 or top 15 pick but I tend to think he's slightly overvalued in fantasy circles. I recognize that is very good but I don't think he's an outstanding player. I think 2010 is a bit of an outlier statistically for him and that 2011 and 2012 is more of what he really will be fantasy-wise - still very, very good production - .310 AVG 25 HR 95 RBI 20 SB - but not elite fantasy production. Middlebrooks will not be a keeper for me, so he's just a throw-in to try to lure the other guy in.

I think Adrian Gonzalez is a guy who still has quite a bit left in the tank and will bounce back to some degree. I could definitely see him hitting about .300 with 25 HR 100 RBI and a .380 OBP, which would obviously mean that he would be a top 5 or top 6 first baseman. Lawrie disappointed a bit last year but I still think people view him as having a bright future and that it is just a matter of time before he puts it together. I would think he's perfectly capable of going .280 AVG 20 HR 80 RBI 18 SB - this season, with the potential for more in future seasons. Doing so would solidify me at 3B and 1B, while giving up a very good OF (lets face it - easier to find in the draft).

The biggest risk on my end (besides giving up the best player in the deal) is it does kind of muddy my keeper picture. Obviously, I would then keep Stanton, Adrian Gonzalez and Brett Lawrie and I would then be left with 2 keepers to debate among 4 potential players - Carlos Santana, Ben Zobrist, Adam Wainwright, Gio Gonzalez. I would think Santana would have to be the guy, as he should be a top 5 or top 6 catcher and you just can't toss a guy like that back into the draft (where he would obviously be snatched up pretty quickly once the draft got underway). As much as I would be tempted to keep Zobrist as my #5 guy because of his versatility and pretty decent overall production, I would probably keep Wainwright, since I feel he should definitely be a top 12 and possibly even a top 10 starter this season and I would be worried about not keeping any starting pitchers at all. Gio would be the odd man out, as I am a little higher on Wainwright than him as a SP this year.

So, would I be absolutely nuts for considering this scenario? He hasn't proposed it to me but I've sort of played it out in my mind and I could see Adrian Gonzalez and Lawrie being a very nice combo at the corners for me. I know it puts my keepers in a little bit of chaos and that I would have to put a couple of quality guys back into the draft pool (Gio Gonzalez and either Zobrist or Wainwright) but it is something I am considering.


Here is my roster, as it now stands (which is essentially what it looked like at the end of last season):

C: Carlos Santana (C, 1B)
1B: E. Hosmer (1B)
2B: B. Zobrist (2B, SS, RF)
SS: A. Escobar (SS)
3B: W. Middlebrooks (3B)
LF: C. Gonzalez (LF)
CF: A. Eaton (CF)
RF: G. Stanton (RF)
Util: J. Maxwell (LF, CF, RF)
Util: B. Revere (RF)
Bn: K. Youkilis (3B, 1B)
Bn: W. Myers (RF)

SP: A. Wainwright
SP: G. Gonzalez
SP: K. Medlen
SP: J. Niese
SP: M. Estrada
SP: A. Cobb
RP: A. Reed
RP: R. Soriano
RP: S. Downs
RP: S. Marshall


Thanks!


No way I make that deal, will the trill , and lawrie will be there come draft day...so there will be a 3 bagger u can get your hands on....If I had to choose 5 with your scoring and it being 20 teams, u want to keep positions that are going to be hard to find in the draft like C, and SS.....so with that I keep Santana, Zobrist(scores in all cats, even assists...lol), cargo, stanton and 1 of gio or wianwright which ever one u like best as I think there both good..... ;-D ;-D ;-D
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