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Josh Willingham at 127 on Yahoo... Am I missing something?

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Josh Willingham at 127 on Yahoo... Am I missing something?

Postby slcdcricket » Tue Feb 19, 2013 8:34 pm

I think he could easily hit 30 HR and 100 RBI, steal a few bags and score a good bunch of runs... Is he really only a tenth rounder? I compare him quite favorably to a player like Jay Bruce, who could go as early as the third...
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Re: Josh Willingham at 127 on Yahoo... Am I missing somethin

Postby West » Tue Feb 19, 2013 8:48 pm

He's 34 and coming off a career year. If you want to waste your money go ahead.
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Re: Josh Willingham at 127 on Yahoo... Am I missing somethin

Postby SpecialFNK » Tue Feb 19, 2013 9:14 pm

I don't think he will repeat 35 HR again. he had a career high HR/FB in 2012. but I do think he could come close to 30.
R/RBI could depend on the Twins lineup.
looks like the Twins could go with..
Mastroianni, Carroll, Mauer, Willingham, Morneau, Doumit, Parmelee, Plouffe, (SS).
not great, but good/decent?
but I think Willingham could still go for around 70+R, 90+ RBI.
I think the AVG could be close to .260 or under.

I like to use razzball.com for projections help. he has Willingham down for 78 R, 29 HR, 89 RBI, .257 AVG, 3 SB.

I don't know what round that puts him good for.
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Re: Josh Willingham at 127 on Yahoo... Am I missing somethin

Postby Frenchiegangsta9 » Tue Feb 19, 2013 9:18 pm

3 year avg from 2009 to 2011: 23 hr, 72 rbi, 64 r, .258 avg

I would expect a regression from his 2012 career year.
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Re: Josh Willingham at 127 on Yahoo... Am I missing somethin

Postby SpecialFNK » Tue Feb 19, 2013 9:24 pm

Frenchiegangsta9 wrote:3 year avg from 2009 to 2011: 23 hr, 72 rbi, 64 r, .258 avg

I would expect a regression from his 2012 career year.


3 year average includes 2009 where he only had 16 HR/56 RBI ..in 114 games/370 AB.

if he can get 130+ games he shouldn't have a problem reaching the mid to upper 20's in HR.
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Re: Josh Willingham at 127 on Yahoo... Am I missing somethin

Postby Frenchiegangsta9 » Tue Feb 19, 2013 9:53 pm

SpecialFNK wrote:
Frenchiegangsta9 wrote:3 year avg from 2009 to 2011: 23 hr, 72 rbi, 64 r, .258 avg

I would expect a regression from his 2012 career year.


3 year average includes 2009 where he only had 16 HR/56 RBI ..in 114 games/370 AB.

if he can get 130+ games he shouldn't have a problem reaching the mid to upper 20's in HR.


Hey Special. I considered that when I looked at his 3 yr avg, I wanted to see his avg performance over a certain period of time regardless of existential circumstances. If he performs at the 2012 level again in 2013, then that would create a small pattern of what we could expect in 2014, albeit as he gets older. Based on years prior to 2012, I doubt he comes close to repeating last years production.
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Re: Josh Willingham at 127 on Yahoo... Am I missing somethin

Postby SpecialFNK » Tue Feb 19, 2013 10:17 pm

I misquoted or whatever. I meant 2010, not 2009.

I don't think he will repeat 2012 numbers either, but I think it's unfair to use a 3 year average that included 2010 when he only had 114 games.
he had 136 games/488 AB in 2011 and 145 games/519 AB in 2012.
in 2010 when he had 16 HR, his production level was down. he only had 11.3% HR/FB, which was the lowest of his career.
in 2009 he had 24 HR in 133 games/427 AB.
in 2012 he had his highest HR/FB at 21.2%. he also had 17.4 HR/FB% in 2009. so I'm thinking he could/should be around that 17%.
his numbers could depend on how many games/AB he can get. if he could be limited to 120 games or less, that I think he would end up in the lower 20's. but if he can get 130-140 games like he has the last 2 seasons and have a HR/FB of roughly 17% then I think he should be mid to upper 20's.
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Re: Josh Willingham at 127 on Yahoo... Am I missing somethin

Postby Frenchiegangsta9 » Tue Feb 19, 2013 10:47 pm

SpecialFNK wrote:I misquoted or whatever. I meant 2010, not 2009.

I don't think he will repeat 2012 numbers either, but I think it's unfair to use a 3 year average that included 2010 when he only had 114 games.
he had 136 games/488 AB in 2011 and 145 games/519 AB in 2012.
in 2010 when he had 16 HR, his production level was down. he only had 11.3% HR/FB, which was the lowest of his career.
in 2009 he had 24 HR in 133 games/427 AB.
in 2012 he had his highest HR/FB at 21.2%. he also had 17.4 HR/FB% in 2009. so I'm thinking he could/should be around that 17%.
his numbers could depend on how many games/AB he can get. if he could be limited to 120 games or less, that I think he would end up in the lower 20's. but if he can get 130-140 games like he has the last 2 seasons and have a HR/FB of roughly 17% then I think he should be mid to upper 20's.


No worries on the year, everything you mentioned here was what I looked at as well on Baseball Reference. As I mentioned before, I am going by what he did before his career year, even beyond the 3 year avg. He provided avg production for many seasons before 2012 so it leads me to believe he will revert back to doing so again in 2013.
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Re: Josh Willingham at 127 on Yahoo... Am I missing somethin

Postby OBPlover » Tue Feb 19, 2013 11:08 pm

Frenchiegangsta9 wrote:
SpecialFNK wrote:I misquoted or whatever. I meant 2010, not 2009.

I don't think he will repeat 2012 numbers either, but I think it's unfair to use a 3 year average that included 2010 when he only had 114 games.
he had 136 games/488 AB in 2011 and 145 games/519 AB in 2012.
in 2010 when he had 16 HR, his production level was down. he only had 11.3% HR/FB, which was the lowest of his career.
in 2009 he had 24 HR in 133 games/427 AB.
in 2012 he had his highest HR/FB at 21.2%. he also had 17.4 HR/FB% in 2009. so I'm thinking he could/should be around that 17%.
his numbers could depend on how many games/AB he can get. if he could be limited to 120 games or less, that I think he would end up in the lower 20's. but if he can get 130-140 games like he has the last 2 seasons and have a HR/FB of roughly 17% then I think he should be mid to upper 20's.


No worries on the year, everything you mentioned here was what I looked at as well on Baseball Reference. As I mentioned before, I am going by what he did before his career year, even beyond the 3 year avg. He provided avg production for many seasons before 2012 so it leads me to believe he will revert back to doing so again in 2013.


The only problem with Willingham is that he's an injury risk. Any year he was reasonably healthy, he put up some very good power numbers. He has the best OBP in the AL batting ahead of him which supports optomistic RBI projections.
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Re: Josh Willingham at 127 on Yahoo... Am I missing somethin

Postby slcdcricket » Tue Feb 19, 2013 11:15 pm

So I guess my question would be, is 127 too low for him? At that rank, should he be on my fantasy team? Obviously, ADP matters more than yahoo O-Rank, but if he's available around that time it looks like it could be a steal. The only knocks look like a bit of a regression / ability to stay healthy.

Another question would be what happens if he gets traded? The Twins don't look good this year, could he platoon if he gets traded?
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