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Make this pre-season trade? WHIR

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Make this pre-season trade? WHIR

Postby jruffus1 » Mon Feb 18, 2013 7:50 pm

I am in a 12-team H2H Keeper league (6x6). We can keep 4 players by forfeiting their picks from the previous year. We can keep a player for 4 years in exchange for the same pick. I was making a run for it last season, so I traded away my 3rd round draft pick. With this in mind, I was offered the following trade:

My Jay Bruce (6th round)

for

His Jose Altuve (22nd round)

My keepers so far are Kemp (1st), Rizzo (23rd), Bumgarner (7th), and Bruce (6th). Trade away a stud in Bruce for a better draft value in Altuve?
Last edited by jruffus1 on Mon Feb 18, 2013 8:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Make this pre-season trade? WHIR

Postby Philly_05 » Mon Feb 18, 2013 7:58 pm

Do they stay those picks for the eternity of the league. Or do they move up each passing season? I think I would stick with Bruce personally.

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Re: Make this pre-season trade? WHIR

Postby fsbarren » Tue Feb 19, 2013 5:57 am

If the player with the late-round price tag was someone like Craig, I'd say that might be doable. Trouble is, I'm just not that high on Altuve. He's on a terrible team in a tough division now in the AL-West. You're trading a ton of power, and the only stat Altuve is predicted to beat Bruce in is SBs. Kemp is going to get you SBs and Bruce will grab a handful too, so I'm I almost think it weakens your team especially on power even if you are paying a lower cost.

Most importantly, if you're trying to work the max-value angle, I really think you can get a better value than Altuve (like Craig, who I saw go in the 23rd round of another league. You'd get solid production, a better avg and the same savings in draft round).

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Re: Make this pre-season trade? WHIR

Postby misterf » Tue Feb 19, 2013 6:25 am

No doubt Bruce is the better player.

And at the cost of a 6th round pick, Bruce is even a good value (he is likely an early 4th rounder in a re-draft league).

But Altuve is a steal as a 22nd round pick. (I already have him as a 6th or early 7th rounder this year)

And,while they are both young, Bruce has likely reached his peak level of production.....while Altuve is likely to only get better over the next few years.


So, I would actually go with Altuve in this case simply because he is the better value here.


Note: since Bruce is the best player in the deal, you might be able to squeeze an extra late round draft pick out of the guy....or move up a couple of rounds in a swap of mid-round picks.......but i would still take the trade as-is.



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Re: Make this pre-season trade? WHIR

Postby fsbarren » Tue Feb 19, 2013 7:02 am

misterf wrote:No doubt Bruce is the better player.

And at the cost of a 6th round pick, Bruce is even a good value (he is likely an early 4th rounder in a re-draft league).

But Altuve is a steal as a 22nd round pick. (I already have him as a 6th or early 7th rounder this year)

And,while they are both young, Bruce has likely reached his peak level of production.....while Altuve is likely to only get better over the next few years.

So, I would actually go with Altuve in this case simply because he is the better value here.

Note: since Bruce is the best player in the deal, you might be able to squeeze an extra late round draft pick out of the guy....or move up a couple of rounds in a swap of mid-round picks.......but i would still take the trade as-is.

Help with mine?

http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=454769


And to be fair, Bruce's inconsistent tendencies (boom this week, bust next) dings him a little in H2H leagues, which I believe this is.

Still, while I generally agree with the max value approach, in this case I think Bruce is probably elite-ish enough for a power hitter and he is just entering his prime and has proven himself so you know more or less the baseline stats. He also plays on a much stronger team and I think there might still be some improvement to squeeze out of him. I guess I think he's a bit more valuable than most and rate Altuve a little lower than most as well so the value gain isn't as great, though it's certainly there.

I agree about trying to move up a couple of rounds in a swap of mid-round picks. That could push it over the top.
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Re: Make this pre-season trade? WHIR

Postby MadDog36 » Tue Feb 19, 2013 12:26 pm

In h2h formats (for points based) SB only threats are less in value. I'd take Bruce.
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