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Lawrie or Headley

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Re: Lawrie or Headley

Postby Ender » Thu Feb 28, 2013 12:39 pm

Oh I wouldn't draft him where he is going either~. He is a better real baseball player than fantasy because well he plays for the Mets and is on the wrong side of 30 now. But Headley had 35% of his HR of the just enough variety. He had a 3rd straight year of declining FB% and his HR/FB% from last year was higher than his previous 3 years combined. There just isn't anything that suggests this outbreak is for real and that lineup is still a complete joke so the RBI aren't repeating either.
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Re: Lawrie or Headley

Postby jeffmerk » Thu Feb 28, 2013 7:12 pm

Ender wrote:RBI, R, SB are probably a push. Wright will hit for a higher AVG and more HR than Headley. That power spike simply is not for real, it is a Joe Mauer 2009 type spike. I would at least be tempted to take the under on 32 HR combined the next 2 seasons from Headley though I'd be forced to take the over. I'll definitely take the under on 25 for next year though.

There's no reason to think that Headley will have the same health issues as Mauer.
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Re: Lawrie or Headley

Postby Tex34 » Sat Mar 16, 2013 1:02 pm

I see Headley as just another Ryan Ludwick. In 2013 he'll be a worthy fantasy starter, but his numbers will disappoint most owners. By 2015 he'll be fantasy irrelevant. Just my take.
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Re: Lawrie or Headley

Postby jeffmerk » Sat Mar 16, 2013 1:15 pm

Tex34 wrote:I see Headley as just another Ryan Ludwick. In 2013 he'll be a worthy fantasy starter, but his numbers will disappoint most owners. By 2015 he'll be fantasy irrelevant. Just my take.

There's no reason to think that Headley will ever struggle to make contact as much as Ludwick does.
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Re: Lawrie or Headley

Postby Tex34 » Sat Mar 16, 2013 1:28 pm

jeffmerk wrote:
Tex34 wrote:I see Headley as just another Ryan Ludwick. In 2013 he'll be a worthy fantasy starter, but his numbers will disappoint most owners. By 2015 he'll be fantasy irrelevant. Just my take.

There's no reason to think that Headley will ever struggle to make contact as much as Ludwick does.


The fact that Headley struck out 157 times last year and has the exact same career K-rate as Ludwick isn't reason enough?
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Re: Lawrie or Headley

Postby jeffmerk » Sat Mar 16, 2013 2:08 pm

Tex34 wrote:
jeffmerk wrote:
Tex34 wrote:I see Headley as just another Ryan Ludwick. In 2013 he'll be a worthy fantasy starter, but his numbers will disappoint most owners. By 2015 he'll be fantasy irrelevant. Just my take.

There's no reason to think that Headley will ever struggle to make contact as much as Ludwick does.


The fact that Headley struck out 157 times last year and has the exact same career K-rate as Ludwick isn't reason enough?


OK, make that "quality" contact.
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Re: Lawrie or Headley

Postby Tex34 » Sat Mar 16, 2013 2:33 pm

jeffmerk wrote:
Tex34 wrote:
jeffmerk wrote:There's no reason to think that Headley will ever struggle to make contact as much as Ludwick does.


The fact that Headley struck out 157 times last year and has the exact same career K-rate as Ludwick isn't reason enough?


OK, make that "quality" contact.


Well their line drive rates are very similar, and Headley hits a heckuva lot more groudballs than Ludwick, so how do you define "quality?"
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Re: Lawrie or Headley

Postby jeffmerk » Sat Mar 16, 2013 6:07 pm

Headley struggles much less against lefties, which tells me that he makes more consistent contact but maybe I'm jumping to conclusions.
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Re: Lawrie or Headley

Postby isayfujobu » Mon Mar 18, 2013 5:52 pm

The Padres are worried about Headley's thumb. He's supposed to visit a hand specialist today, but that is enough to cross him off my list. I can't draft a guy tonight that my be out 6-8 weeks tomorrow.

http://tracking.si.com/2013/03/18/chase-headley-injured/
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Re: Lawrie or Headley

Postby jeffmerk » Mon Mar 18, 2013 8:28 pm

It's broken and he'll miss at least a month. I'm going to throw him back at $24 and hope I can get him for less.
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